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A Statistical Fluke?
by PuckStopsHere on 10/27/08 at 02:31 PM ET
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It is still very early in the NHL season. Some results of teams and players which are surprising at this point are not likely to last all season long. The statistic that surprises me the most at this point which has the least chance of lasting the season is the Los Angeles kings leading the NHL in shots against. The Kings have allowed only 24.3 shots per game. This is a small lead over the San Jose Sharks.
The Kings solid defence so far this season is surprise because the 32.0 shots per game they allowed was third worst in the NHL. That team subtracted both Lubomir Visnovsky and Rob Blake in the off season without adding any significant veterans. If they have improved, how have they improved?
It isn’t likely that Los Angeles has improved their defence by any significant margin. It is most likely that they are nowhere near as good as their early start would indicate.
Their top players in terms of total ice time are 18 year old rookie Drew Doughty and former Anaheim spare part Sean O’Donnell. You cannot have a top defence when players like that leading your ice time. That is strong evidence that this is a bit of a fluke.
Probably the biggest reason for defensive improvement is a better coaching system under Terry Murray than under Marc Crawford (who coached the team last year). He has the team checking better.
As a result of the solid defensive play by Los Angeles so far, the Kings have not been a bad team. They haven’t been particularly good either, but they have been tough to play against. They have won three of their seven games so far. They have scored more goals than they have scored (22 to 19).
I expect by the time the season is over, nobody will be claiming Los Angeles has a good defence, but so far this season their team has played some surprisingly good d.
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Before you get to excited about the Kings, be aware that despite the fluke that they have allowed less shots per game than anyone else in the league, they are tied for last in the West Conference with 6 points.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 10/27/08 at 02:15 PM ET
How about the power play in St. Louis? 30th overall last year, they lose their best PP defenceman, add no one of significance, and, until Saturday, led the league. I’ll be willing to bet that they don’t keep that up their 34.2% pace. Given Detroit’s huge amount of firepower, people probably aren’t as surprised at their 34.4% efficiency, but I’ll gladly bet that they don’t keep it up, either.
In general, most remarkable early-season trends are flukes. There’s luck involved in every game, and a surprising performance is likely to involve more good luck (or bad luck) than you can expect over a full season. Pointing out that the surprisingly good or bad performances are probably flukes is relatively easy. It’s much harder to find the unremarkable performances that are flukes.
(That’s not meant as a criticism of this post, though, which pointed out a trend I hadn’t actually known about.)
Posted by Ryan from Toronto on 10/27/08 at 02:36 PM ET
I’m not getting excited about the Kings. I doubt they will make the playoffs, it’s just that the difference in philosophy is there from last year. The game plan is to get in front of shots and make it more difficult for teams to put the puck on net, and if they do, make a bad shot selection, ie don’t give up the middle. That wasn’t there last year.
They are not world beaters, but at the same time, they are not the worst team in the conference.
Plus, the bright side is coming. In two to three years, they have the potential to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference if not the league.
Posted by Ryan Thomas from California on 10/27/08 at 04:26 PM ET
It is fair to say that Dean Lombardi slowly has changed the quality of character in this organization. He certainly had to answer to certain pressure from above when he first got here, he made a few mistakes and had to pay a lot for them, however, he finally went full throttle this year, got rid off a lot of dead weight (Blake), some players that originally he thought were gonna be a part of the whole thing but once he had a clearer picture, age wise, he did not fit (Visnovsky) and brought in, like I said, character!! I do get excited because I see a team that plays hard night in and night out. Yeah it hasn’t shown in points but soon enough they will learn to win and get points in all those games that we came close or we completely outplay the other team, yet we lost. That’s experience, time, knowledge and understanding but I tell you, we have a bunch of very smart, fast learners competitive kids with character on top.
Posted by ARod on 10/27/08 at 05:23 PM ET
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While there are definitely no household names on defense, there are several reasons that are contributing to the success of the Kings defense.
One, they are all buying into the system that Terry Murray has put in front of them. As a former NHL defenseman, he’s brought more to the table than Crawford and Murray have. Also having Mark Hardy back coaching the penalty kill has resulted in the best PK in the entire league.
Two, they have guys that care now. Matt Greene is not an All-Star but he blocks shots and plays physical. The same goes for Sean O’Donnell. Doughty has been a pleasant surprised and Kyle Quincey might be the same kind of pickup for the Kings as Francois Beauchmin was for the Ducks. When Jack Johnson comes back, the defense will only get better.
Three, the reason they care more is because they have rid themselves of Blake and Visnovsky. The team doesn’t need veterans like that who are just collecting paychecks. Have you seen what Visnovsky has done in Edmonton? Not much. The defensive core for LA is miles better than last year AND the forwards are making a bigger impact since Michal Handzus and Jarret Stoll have been on the penalty kill. These guys know exactly what to do and are playing solid two-way hockey which is resulting in the Kings overachieving.
This may not happen all year long, but it certainly is a good start to contest those pundits that said the Kings would be the worst team in the Western Conference.
Posted by Ryan Thomas from California on 10/27/08 at 02:04 PM ET