The Puck Stops Here
Next entry: Stastny’s Offensive Value
Previous entry: Hockey Blogging Comes Of Age
Burrows Offensive Value
by PuckStopsHere on 08/23/10 at 06:11 PM ET
Comments (0)
Alexandre Burrows of the Vancouver Canucks was the 36th highest scorer in the NHL last year with 67 points. Yet when we sort the top 20 players by offensive goals versus threshold, Burrows comes 18th in the league. Burrows is the most high profile example of a player who ranks significantly better under Tom Awad’s system when compared to his actual rank in the NHL scoring race.
Burrows is an excellent example of a player who is overrated by this system. It is a worthwhile case study to see why this occurs.
The first reason that this overrating occurs is that Burrows was a top goal scorer. His 35 goals placed him tenth in the league. Nobody who had more goals was not among the top 20 players by offensive goals versus threshold. This is in part because everyone with more goals also had significantly more points, but it is also because goals are rated more highly than assists in this system. This will rank goal scorers more highly than they should be. In some cases, a player who creates a lot of the goals he scores deserves this credit, but in other cases when the player is a “finisher” who scores the opportunities created by his more talented teammates, this leads to overrating.
Burrows usually plays with linemates Henrik and Daniel Sedin. These are some of the better players in the game. Henrik is the defending Hart and Art Ross Trophy winner and Daniel had the third highest point per game scorer last season (behind Henrik and Alexander Ovechkin). Burrows is the least talented member of the line. He is a hard hitting player who is willing to fight for his position in front of the net. He has been quite successful in scoring on the opportunities that the Sedins create for him there. One problem of the offensive ratings in the goals versus threshold system is that there is no method to determine who is responsible for a goal scored beyond a cursory look at the scoreboard to see who was given the credit for the goal or the assists. Sabermetrically this is hard to do. It is hard to objectively determine who actually created a goal beyond the level of the goal and assist totals. Burrows is an example of a player who scored goals that were largely produced by his linemates.
Burrows also is overrated on this list because he has a relatively low ice time for a player who scores as high as he does. Burrows played 17:51 per game last year and most top scorers played more minutes than this per game. The more time a player plays the more points he will have to get to overcome the scoring of a threshold player with the same ice time. The problem is that all ice time is not created equally. It is generally assumed that the more a player plays the more he will score, but this is not always correct. It is possible for a player to have a niche where he performs well, but not be able to expand his performance successfully outside of that niche. This is the case with Burrows. By playing with the Sedins he plays with the highest quality of teammates in the NHL. At times the Sedins double shift and Burrows does not come along for the ride. Burrows would not significantly increase his point total if he was given more ice time - at least not ice time apart from the Sedins.
Alexandre Burrows is an example of a player who gets overrated in the offensive portion of the goals versus threshold system. He has worked well as a linemate of Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but his offensive totals are increased because of his linemates. There is no way to measure this under this system. Burrows is a relatively high goal scorer and goals are valued over assists in this system and he has found a niche where he is very successful, which limits his ice time. This reduced ice time improves his ranking in this system. Burrows is overrated because his high goal total and relatively low ice time make him appear more productive than he actually is. In reality, he is the finisher for two more talented linemates and this has given him credit for goals that they produced. His ice time in limited because he is mostly limited to the niche as the Sedins regular linemate and has limited ice time in other situations. The offensive numbers Alexandre Burrows had last year were increased as a result of top quality linemates and they were increased in such a way that it will significantly benefit him under this system.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Alexandre+Burrows, Daniel+Sedin, Henrik+Sedin, Vancouver+Canucks,
Comments
Be the first to comment.
Add a Comment
Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.
Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.
Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.
Commenting is not available in this weblog entry.
Most Recent Blog Posts
Missing Other League All Star Games
Top Defenceman So Far This Season
About The Puck Stops Here
The Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.
Who am I?
A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging?
I want to.
Why are you reading it?
???
Email: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
When learning from experts it’s best to learn personally from them, or from their blog. We can provide that with poker lessons blog, your home to learn poker personally.
Do you get shocked from the luck in the game of poker? Stop getting shocked and start being a Poker Shoker
Donate to Kukla’s Korner