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Correlation Of Fenwick Number With Team Points

In my most recent sabermetrics and hockey posts I have been discussing the Fenwick Number.  It is essentially a measure of puck possession that measures all 5 on 5 shots on goal and missed shots for and against when a given player is on the ice.  It is much like the Corsi Number.  Both Fenwick and Corsi Numbers are attempts to find a replacement for +/- ratings that will include more events and thus have higher signal to noise.  I have listed the players with the top 20 and worst 20 Fenwick Numbers as well as listing the team Fenwick Numbers.

Today I will address the question of whether the Fenwick or the Corsi Number better correlates with winning.

I have already shown the correlation between Corsi Number and team points is 0.626.  Corsi shows a pretty strong relation with winning hockey games.

Here is a plot of team Fenwick Numbers from 2008/09 against the point totals of the 30 NHL teams:

image

This graph shows that in general, teams that have higher Fenwick Numbers have more points.  The correlation between team Fenwick Number and points is 0.602.  This correlation is almost as strong as that of Corsi, but it is slightly worse.  Omitting blocked shots that are included in Corsi makes this rating slightly less of an indicator of winning hockey.  Therefore I will not bother with posting adjusted Fenwick Numbers as they are likely less strong indicators of successful hockey than the Corsi Number lists.  Perhaps this can be seen intuitively as MVP nominees Pavel Datsyuk and Alexander Ovechkin have worse rankings in terms of raw Fenwick Number then they do in raw Corsi Number or when Jay Bouwmeester (who struggles in all of these puck possession stats) comes closer to the league worst (2nd worst in the league) in raw Fenwick Number than he does in raw Corsi Number.

Fenwick Number is a useful measure and in some circumstances may be better than Corsi, but in general Corsi is the preferable measure of the two.  Nevertheless it is valuable to be introduced to both methods because some hockey statistics blogposts may use either one of the two.  When I continue to look at sabermetrics and hockey both concepts will be used at differing times.

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Correlation Of Fenwick Number With Team Points

Will the madness never end. surprised

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 09/03/09 at 10:17 PM ET

VooX's avatar

TPSH, I have been debating whether to reply to your utterly ridiculous response to my assertions that hockey does not lend itself for “sabremetric” type analysis.  I’ve decided to make the reply, but not before I compile some links/articles to prove you are out to lunch.

In the meantime, I’d like to point out that you are very much like Eric Cartman, your avatar.  You are incredibly arrogant and self-absorbed.  So I’ve decided to rename you:

TheLinkGoesHere

Unlike almost every other blogger I’ve read, you spend more time linking your own blog than other people’s work or information.

I don’t have the time to compile the stats today, TheLinkGoesHere, so why don’t you or one of your readers do a little number crunching for me?  You like number crunching after all.

I’d like to examine all of your blog posts during this offseason to determine the percentage of links in your posts that link to your own blog and the percentage that link to other people’s blogs/articles.  For clarity, let’s break it down into these categories:

1) Total number of links in your blog posts. (In the text of your post, not sidebar)
2) Number of links which lead to your KK blog
3) Number of links which lead to your former blog
4) Number of links to articles/blogs which are not your own AND have a link to one of your blogs somewhere on their page
5) Number of links to articles/blogs which are not your own AND do NOT have a link to one of your blogs anywhere on their page

For fun we can even break it down between the Sabremetric and non-Sabremetric blog posts that you’ve made.

I think the numbers will be quite telling.  And I make the distinction between categories 4 & 5 as by linking a blog which links to your blog you are promoting your friends/acquaintances and indirectly your own self-interests. If the site you link readers to does not reference one of your blogs anywhere, you are not promoting acquaintances or your own self-interests.

I’m willing to bet the majority of your links are to yourself, TheLinkGoesHere.  Is it because you want to increase your total page hits?  Or is it because your writing is so groundbreaking that you have to rehash all your old posts in your new posts?  I think it is more a symptom of your self-absorption.

And another thing that bothers me about you, TheLinkGoesHere, is your complete anonymity.  Every other blogger at KK has their name on their blog (Tony Ferrante uses his full name on his old Confluence blog) except for you.  In fact, other than Ecklund, off the top of my head I can’t think of any hockey bloggers that DON’T give their name to their readers.

Maybe you think your Sabremetric work is so revolutionary a desperate team will scoop you up to be their analyst to tell them who to sign/trade, and you must remain anonymous to protect your future team.  Don’t get your hopes up, though, almost all GMs on record about Sabremetrics scoff at their utility in hockey.

And in case anyone forgot, TheLinkGoesHere.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/03/09 at 10:58 PM ET

VooX's avatar

Typo:

Sabremetrics=Sabermetrics

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/03/09 at 11:02 PM ET

John W.'s avatar

...And in case anyone forgot, TheLinkGoesHere.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/03/09 at 11:58 PM ET

Awesome post Voox.

Posted by John W. from a bubble wrap cocoon on 09/03/09 at 11:13 PM ET

Avatar

Dear Voox, Jophn W.

If he links to his own post it’s because he is building on something he tried earlier. Noone orders you to click that link. (and even then you have the right to refuse).
Because you only come here to whin, I will now call you Boo-Ox (you might like the new nickname, don’t worry, it’s not copyrighted, I grant you free use in my eternal goodness)

Now I can’t even begin to wrap m y head around the fact you care so much about this guys real name, Boo-Ox? Who cares? The only blogger’s names I know are Paul Kukla and Justin Bourne. but why don’t you step up to the plate and instead of using an alias to react to a blog you continouisly read despite obviously considering it a waste of time, respond with your given name from now one? That was all Boo-Ox, thanks for wasting more of your life. I’m killing you one second at the time.

Goodbye Boo-Ox

Joris.

Posted by fish on 09/04/09 at 04:46 AM ET

VooX's avatar

Actually this is only the second thread all summer where I have criticized his Sabermetrics methodology.  Nice try.  And FYI VooX is my real name, although stylized.  And besides I’m not a blogger, but I choose to use my real name everywhere I post to remain accountable.

It is nice to see SOMEONE defend TheLinkGoesHere]http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh]TheLinkGoesHere[/url] at least we know he has at least one fan.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/04/09 at 06:09 AM ET

VooX's avatar

Oops…. tough to do on the iPhone…
TheLinkGoesHere has a fan!

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/04/09 at 06:12 AM ET

Steve Strowbridge's avatar

That was probably his mom.

Posted by Steve Strowbridge from St. John's, NL, CA on 09/04/09 at 07:22 AM ET

Avatar

Epic post, VooX…both in size and content. I’m sure it’ll take TPSH a while to figure out whether it’s better to refute your claims with a graph, a chart or a list of statistics.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids on 09/04/09 at 09:53 AM ET

VooX's avatar

Thanks OTC and John.  I’m almost done work, when I get home and crack a cold one I may just work out the link stats myself.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/04/09 at 10:31 AM ET

Avatar

Voox,

Personally, I’ve no objection if someone wants to link to themselves within their own blog, particularly if they are expanding upon a theme or updating a previous entry.  For the Hockey Hall of Fame discussions that have appeared here, for example, it’s much more efficient to link to the initial blog entry on the Keltner List rather than see it presented over and over and over.

One of the issues that TPSH has recently dealt with has been critics that accuse him of not explaining his thought process and conclusions more fully. Part of that issue stems from this blog having been around for a number of years, and many new readers are coming in “late” so to speak: Much of that itemized step-by-step detail has come before. It’s much easier to link back to key posts, rather than begin each entry with “In the beginning…” or “Our story so far…”

SABRmetrics, a term coined from Society for the Advancement of Baseball Research, should really be SIHRmetrics when it comes to hockey (for the Society of International Hockey Reserach). Nevertheless, an examination of measures and metrics in sports, even in hockey, is useful exercise. They’ve been doing this type of research in baseball for 30-plus years and have produced some impressive data. Hockey is a much more complex game than baseball, and metric research in hockey is really still in its infancy. While I personally doubt we’ll be able to develop the same kind of insight achieved in baseball (given that game is essentially a series of one-on-one interactions as opposed to the brownian motion of hockey), I do believe we’ll increase our understanding and appreciation of hockey through this pursuit.

Posted by Matthew McCallum from Redding, California on 09/04/09 at 04:15 PM ET

VooX's avatar

Great post, Matthew. Well articulated, I can only disagree with your last sentence.  But I’ll leave it until after the weekend.  May we all have a safe and SABRmetric-free long weekend.

Posted by VooX from Behind the Bar in the Hasek Club Car on 09/05/09 at 07:53 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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