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Corsi Numbers Top 20
by PuckStopsHere on 07/10/09 at 01:50 AM ET
Comments (4)
In this summer’s look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have introduced the Corsi Number as an alternative to +/- ratings. Let’s take a look at some of the players with the best Corsi Numbers from the 2008/09 regular season. The best online source for this information is behind the net, but it treats Corsi Numbers as a rate stat (giving them per minute of ice time). I think it is a much more logical starting point to look at the raw counting numbers. This is how we most frequently view +/- ratings and should be best comparable to Corsi Numbers. In the adjustment process, we may wish to treat them as rate stats, but not at this point.
Here are the top 20 Corsi Numbers from 2008/09:
Rank | Player | Team | Corsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pavel Datsyuk | Det | +419
|
| 2 | Brian Rafalski | Det | +410
|
| 3 | Alexander Ovechkin | Was | +399
|
| 4 | Niklas Kronwall | Det | +391
|
| 5 | Nicklas Lidstrom | Det | +390
|
| 6 | Johan Franzen | Det | +365
|
| 7 | Marian Hossa | Det | +360
|
| 7 | Henrik Zetterberg | Det | +360
|
| 9 | Mike Green | Was | +354
|
| 10 | David Moss | Cgy | +343
|
| 11 | Ryan Getzlaf | Ana | +342
|
| 12 | Brian Campbell | Chi | +326
|
| 13 | Zach Parise | NJD | +317
|
| 14 | Mikael Samuelsson | Det | +315
|
| 15 | Nicklas Backstrom | Was | +314
|
| 16 | Corey Perry | Ana | +311
|
| 17 | Scott Gomez | NYR | +308
|
| 18 | Jonathan Toews | Chi | +304
|
| 19 | Duncan Keith | Chi | +303
|
| 20 | Dan Boyle | SJS | +300
|
The most obvious conclusion when looking at this list is that the Detroit Red Wings dominate it. Seven of the top eight players were Red Wings (Datsyuk, Rafalski, Kronwall, Lidstrom, Franzen, Hossa, Zetterberg) and an eighth Red Wing (Samuelsson) also appears. In the same vein, no Boston Bruins appear despite many of them having high +/- ratings. Boston had the top two +/- ratings (David Krejci and Blake Wheeler) and three more players in the top 20 (Dennis Wideman, Michael Ryder and Marc Savard) and has none of the top 20 Corsi Numbers. This shows the influence of goaltending on +/-. Boston had the goalie with the best saves percentage in the league (Tim Thomas), while Detroit had the starting goalie with the worst saves percentage in the league (Chris Osgood). Boston did better in terms of +/-, where we are looking at goals scored, but Detroit did better in terms of Corsi Numbers, where we look at shots directed at the net. Boston was able to allow a relatively high number of shots at the net while not allowing many goals, due to their good goaltending. Detroit allowed a relatively high number of goals, given the low number of shots allowed on goal, due to their bad goaltending. There is a goalie influence on +/- and it can be seen by comparing to Corsi Numbers.
One obvious conclusion is that to compare players on different teams, we need to make a team adjustment. There are too few teams with players in the top 20 Corsi Numbers for it to be any kind of comparison between teams and Detroit dominates too much.
Looking beyond the Detroit players, There are seven other teams represented on this list (Chicago and Washington three times each, Anaheim twice and once each for Calgary, New Jersey, NY Rangers and San Jose). These are all playoff teams and are all among the better teams in the league.
NHL MVP Alexander Ovechkin is the only player who was good enough to break the Detroit stranglehold at the top of the charts. He places third.
Most of the players on the list are players one might expect on a list like this. The two biggest surprises are David Moss of Calgary and Scott Gomez of the New York Rangers. Moss is an underrated Calgary grinder, but is he really this valuable? Scott Gomez is a good set up man, who was lost with the Rangers because they had nobody who could score on the chances he created. He was traded to Montreal because of his large contract, but I think he will do quite well in Montreal (better than many predict) if he finds a top sniper to play with.
This list is probably closer to a list of top players in the NHL than a top 20 +/- rating list, despite the over-representation of Detroit Red Wings. This shows, preliminarily, that Corsi Number may be more useful than +/- because of the increased number of events involved.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Alexander+Ovechkin, Boston+Bruins, Detroit+Red+Wings, Pavel+Datsyuk,
Comments
You can also conclude that Osgood is not an elite goaltender.
Posted by Guilherme from Brazil on 07/10/09 at 10:26 AM ET
Corsi is a measure of puck possession and shot differential, of course Detroit is heavily represented. That team excels in both those areas, it’s their bread and butter. There’s nothing surprising, or wrong, with seeing plenty Detroit at the top of the chart. They’re not over-represented, they really are that good, but their team and system are built around that concept.
I think perhaps it says more about Boston and how they’re reliant on difficult-to-sustain save percentage numbers rather than actual puck possession. They could be in for a correction next year.
Gomez going to perennially-outshot Montreal while it’s moving to a more structured system with Jacques Martin will certainly help that team.
Everyone on there is a good 5-on-5 player.
Posted by MathMan on 07/10/09 at 11:10 AM ET
Confused from DC,
Data can indeed be wrong (garbage in , garbage out), but that’s not the case in this situation. What TPSH clearly intends is more along the lines of a filter, to abstract the “team benefit” from the Corsi Number so you have more of a player-to-player comparison. “Over-representation” is a charged word, but a reasonable conclusion from the data as presented, with so many Detroit players appearing in the Top 10, is that there is a team benefit.
However, equally revealing is the presence of only one San Jose player and no Boston players (the other two uber-teams last season) in the Top 20. One could develop the hypothesis that the team benefit isn’t from a successful team per se, but HOW the team is successful.
Or to turn the hypothesis on its head, the concentration of Detroit players versus San Jose and Boston players in the above lists suggests that Detroit’s success is due to a significantly large offense differential (generating more chances than allowing) while San Jose and Boston have a narrower margin and need to rely more on timely scoring and/or strong goaltending.
TPSH,
If you have the data available, in advance of working out some sort of team adjustment, it would be interesting to see the Corsi Numbers for each team (created versus allowed) and top Corsi Number player for each NHL team. That would help with the further interpretation of the Top 20 data.
Posted by Matthew McCallum from Redding, California on 07/10/09 at 11:41 AM ET
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You often write about statistics, but you don’t really appear to understand them. You don’t just drop results from your analysis because you don’t like them. Detroit isn’t “overrepresented” - they are represented precisely as much as they need to be based on the data. You can perhaps argue that the Corsi method needs adjusting, but not that the data is wrong - which calling them “overrepresented” implies.
Posted by Confused from DC on 07/10/09 at 07:39 AM ET