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Devils Rent Kovalchuk
by PuckStopsHere on 02/05/10 at 10:39 AM ET
Comments (16)
The trade deadline is still almost a month away. It is on March 3rd. With a roster freeze during the Olympics, teams have begun trading early. Perhaps the biggest trade of the deadline period occurred last night. The Atlanta Thrashers traded Ilya Kovalchuk and Anssi Salmela to the New Jersey Devils for Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier and the 2010 Devils first round draft pick. This trade is seen as disappointment for the Thrashers who find themselves forced to trade a star player who is about to become an unrestricted free agent for the second time in recent memory (Marian Hossa in 2008 was the other). Under the circumstances, they did well.
I think they would have done well in the Hossa deal as well if it were not for Angelo Esposito having knee problems. Should he recover and have a significant NHL career, they will still come out well in the deal. The problem is that you cannot replace a talent like Kovalchuk or Hossa at trade deadline time when they are about to leave via free agency.
Atlanta fans see their team giving up very talented players for a lesser return repeatedly and are not happy with this. The problem is not these trades. The problem is that Atlanta is not a desired hockey destination. Years of poor management and ownership battles have left the team without having ever won a playoff game. If that is changed, free agents will want to come to Atlanta and they won’t be forced to sell off all their top players when they reach free agency.
The Thrashers got a good return in Johnny Oduya, who is a very good defensive player. Niclas Bergfors is having a solid rookie season. Patrice Cormier is a good prospect who captained Team Canada in the World Junior Championships, but also was suspended for the rest of the QMJHL season for a vicious elbow delivered to Michael Tam. There is also a late first round pick. The odds are good that Atlanta will have a couple very solid players to show for Kovalchuk’s departure long after he has departed from New Jersey as well.
It is clear that Ilya Kovalchuk wants to test the free agent market and sign a large contract. As the highest profile player to reach free agency at age 27 to date, it should be a large contract, possibly exceeding $100 million for its term. As a Russian player, Kovalchuk is not against signing his deal with the KHL if the finances are stronger than the NHL can offer, at least that is his bargaining position as he heads into free agency. Kovalchuk is unlikely to remain in New Jersey. He is also unlikely to be the difference maker who brings a Stanley Cup to New Jersey (difference makers like that are extremely rare - and too many other teams have legitimate Stanley Cup chances). All told, New Jersey paid a high price for a short term rental of a very good player. A few years down the road, they will probably regret giving up one or more of the players that they traded.
In the short term, New Jersey is happy. Atlanta is upset. Over a longer term, it is more likely that Atlanta comes out better in this deal for getting a solid return on Ilya Kovalchuk, who was about to walk away from the club anyway.
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Tags: Atlanta+Thrashers, Ilya+Kovalchuk, Marian+Hossa, New+Jersey+Devils,
Comments
Atlanta should just admit they are the greatest development team in all of hockey. They draw like the AHL and send lots of great players elsewhere.
Posted by redxblack from Akron Ohio on 02/05/10 at 11:21 AM ET
As long as the Devils have Martin Brodeur in net, Lou Lamirello probably thinks the time is now to win a cup, thus making these kind of moves.
I’m not convinced the Devils forwards are experienced enough to win it all…though the Penguins did last year.
Posted by Simian on 02/05/10 at 12:13 PM ET
Kovalchuk is unlikely to remain in New Jersey. He is also unlikely to be the difference maker who brings a Stanley Cup to New Jersey (difference makers like that are extremely rare - and too many other teams have legitimate Stanley Cup chances).
Do you watch hockey, or just write about it?
The key to New Jersey’s success is standing opponents up at the blue line to create turnovers and transition the other way quickly. With Kovalchuk often sitting at the opponent’s blue line, he makes a huge difference in New Jersey and in turn New Jersey has become much stronger in the East.
New Jersey gave up two defense men who were scratched often, and they get Salmela back in the trade and Paul Martin after a break. Cormier will be a good player, but not a Kovalchuk. Atlanta now picks 10th and 28th in the first round, and 60th in the 2nd round. Devils didn’t lose this one.
Posted by TJ on 02/05/10 at 12:20 PM ET
New Jersey gave up two defense men who were scratched often
This comment is 100% wrong. Johnny Oduya has not been a healthy scratch this season. He missed 15 games to a groin injury and has been dressed every game in which he was healthy. Your other “defenceman” is right winger Niclas Bergfors who missed one game all season.
Is your analysis all of this quality?
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/05/10 at 12:35 PM ET
Is it worse that they weren’t scratched, but that it might have seemed like it due to a lack of production? If these guys played that much and a fan could get their position wrong, that only illustrates further that they’re basically scrubs.
That said, Oduya is a physical player that I don’t like my team facing.
Posted by redxblack from Akron Ohio on 02/05/10 at 12:39 PM ET
New Jersey gave up two defense men who were scratched often
This comment is 100% wrong. Johnny Oduya has not been a healthy scratch this season. He missed 15 games to a groin injury and has been dressed every game in which he was healthy. Your other “defenceman” is right winger Niclas Bergfors who missed one game all season.
Is your analysis all of this quality?
Normally my analysis is better quality, and I clearly lost track responding to another craptastic column of yours. So instead of deleting my comments an re-posting them like nothing ever happened (a practice you’re well accustomed to) allow me to correct myself.
NJ moves one defense man now, gets one back in the trade and another back from injury soon. NJ gets a game-changer in Kolvalchuk for Bergfors and Cormier, two forwards who have upside, but will likely not be a the caliber of player Kovalchuk is. ATL moves up about 10 spots in the draft with NJ’s 1st round pick, but moves down about 20 in the 2nd round.
My whole point was NJ has an even more legitimate chance at the Cup with Kovie opening up the ice for them in a shutdown defensive scheme and Hall of Famer goaltender while ATL has to explain to what’s left of their fanbase that this is the best they could do. Advantage: NJ
I’ve corrected my mistake, and am awaiting your response on how Kovalchuk still isn’t a difference-maker who can help NJ win the Cup.
Posted by TJ on 02/05/10 at 12:59 PM ET
Accepting the premise that goal differential rather than defense wins championships, the Kovalchuk trade makes absolutely perfect sense for the New Jersey Devils.
At plus-21, the Devils have the second best goals differential in the Eastern Conference, although they are well behind the plus-69 Washington Capitals and are just ahead of a knot of plus-15 to plus-20 teams. (In the West, Stanley Cup contenders San Jose (plus-53), Chicago (plus-50) and Vancouver (plus-43) also have superior goal differentials to the Devils.)
The key, though, is while New Jersey has the best goals against average in the league, they are 21st in a 30 team league in goals scored per game.
To successfully challenge for the Cup, the Devils need to improve that goal differential spread, and there is really no further way that they can grind down the goals against. With this trade they have significantly improved their offense without putting at risk their defense. In theory, this move should be worth between a third of a goal to a half goal improvement per game. Not every deadline deal pays dividends, but the Devils decisively addressed a pressing need and should reap the benefits.
Pending the response by Buffalo and Pittsburgh, this should be sufficient for New Jersey to get a lock on second overall in the Conference and a chance of catching Washington. The playoffs are always a bit of a crapshoot, but this deal gives New Jersey a game-breaking weapon they need to get through the first round, and sets up the strong potential for an Eastern Conference Final against Washington: the irresistible force Capitals versus the immoveable object Devils.
Posted by Matthew McCallum from Redding, California on 02/05/10 at 01:37 PM ET
“All told, New Jersey paid a high price for a short term rental of a very good player.”
Really?
Oduya had slipped down to the third D pairing of late (with Foster), and the return of Martin would only knock him further down the depth chart. He has a relatively large contract and the emergence of Andy Greene made him expendable.
Bergfors got off to a good start, but hit the wall big-time around Christmas. His game is still very one-dimensional, and he found himself in Lemaire’s dog house more than a few times. That is NOT saying that he’s a bad player, but neither is he a Tavares or Duchene.
Cormier is the wild card, but the kid is now going to carry heavy baggage wherever he goes. As we’ve seen with Bertuzzi, these sort of events can change a player forever. Good for Atlanta if they can turn him into a star, but solid second/third line players seems like the most of his upside.
The Devils rarely make blockbuster trades but, when they do (Molginy in 2000, Nieuwendyk/Lagenbrunner in 2003), the results are impressive.
Posted by 007devils007 on 02/05/10 at 02:53 PM ET
He is also unlikely to be the difference maker who brings a Stanley Cup to New Jersey (difference makers like that are extremely rare - and too many other teams have legitimate Stanley Cup chances).
The same could have been said about Larry Murphy, Brad Stuart, even Bill Guerin last year, but they helped put the Cup-winning teams over the edge. I’d think a defensive team like NJ would see a scorer like Kovalchuk as a HUGE difference-maker.
Posted by Incognetis from Delaware... Hi... I'm in... Delaware on 02/05/10 at 02:53 PM ET
Why is Kovalchuk unlikely to be the difference maker for New Jersey’s Stanley Cup win?
Because most likely they won’t win the Stanley Cup. I think Pittsburgh, Washington, San Jose and are all better bets to win the cup than New Jersey with Kovalchuk. Hockey is a team game. One player doesn’t make a huge difference in most cases. Is New Jersey a better team with Kovalchuk? Yes. But they were not the top contender beforehand and even with an improved chance are still not the top contenders.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/05/10 at 04:02 PM ET
One player doesn’t make a huge difference in most cases. Is New Jersey a better team with Kovalchuk? Yes. But they were not the top contender beforehand and even with an improved chance are still not the top contenders.
Read your hockey history books, my friend (and not just the ones with stats in them). One player can, and often has, made a team from contender to champion.
Denial… it’s not just a river.
Posted by TJ on 02/05/10 at 04:21 PM ET
PSH - Are you serious?
The Capitals would be hard-pressed to even make the playoffs without AO. I mean, seriously, have you looked at their D corp?
And, ahem, Jose Theodore in net?
It isn’t just what Kovie adds to their team, its how much space he’ll also open up for Parise. The Devils now have two of the top four LW’s in the game (notably, the Caps have the other two).
The idea that the Devils aren’t a top contender for the cup is ridiculous - they have the fourth highest winning percentage in the league (even with their recent slump) despite major injury problems.
Elias has missed 23 games, Clarkson 30, Zubrus 30, and Martin 46 - BUT THEY HAVE A .655 WINNING PERCENTAGE. Zubrus is already back, and the other three will be soon. Plus, they just added one of the league’s elite goal scorers of the past decade. If that don’t scream top contender, I don’t know what does.
Posted by Kovie17 on 02/05/10 at 04:28 PM ET
Read your hockey history books, my friend (and not just the ones with stats in them). One player can, and often has, made a team from contender to champion.
I have read many and watched the game over the years. I know that it is a great story that people want to believe that one big addition pushed a team to the Stanley Cup, but it is rarely true.
In the past several years we have seen almost every contender pick up a big name player around trade deadline time, thus we can reverse engineer things to fit that story. Everyone picked up a player. The eventual winner therefore picked up a player. We can write the story that that picked up player was the difference whether he was or wasn`t.
In most cases the pick up doesnt change much and gets discarded. It joins the list of Wayne Gretzky to St Louis, Theo Fleury to Colorado, Marian Hossa to Pittsburgh and Detroit, Peter Forsberg to Nashville - that list can go on almost indefinitely. You are left with a handful of selections for the one pickup that might have led a team to the cup - Butch Goring of the Islanders, Ray Bourque of Colorado (actually picked up the year before the cup run), Dominik Hasek of Detroit are the most plausible ones. The list of final pieces that didn`t change anything is a much longer list. The list of potential selections for final pieces is reverse engineered after the fact and in many cases merely examples of a team picking up a player and winning the cup when there is no evidence that the first event caused the second.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/05/10 at 04:42 PM ET
Brendan Shanahan to Detroit was another. What about the Guerin to Pitt? Doug Weight to Carolina? There are many examples of just a little addition that makes a huge difference. And Hasek wasn’t a mid year addition douche.
No shit you can bring up examples where it didn’t work. Doesn’t mean that it doesn’t help to have that final piece of the puzzle.
But you say NJ is not a top contender? Didn’t you already award the best coach of the history of the world to Jacques Lemaire? How aren’t they a top contender? They are right up there, ahead of the Pens, second in the conference!
Jesus.
Nice insult earlier as well, ha. “Is your analysis all of this quality?” That is pure gold. Keep it up.
Posted by moore00 from Columbus, OH/Grand Rapids, MI on 02/05/10 at 06:03 PM ET
Sigh.
The Blues were a mediocre team that Gretzky improved.
Fleury had 24 points in 15 games for the Avalanche, and 17 points in 18 playoff games. The Avalanche went to game seven of the conference finals and lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions.
Forsberg was a shadow of himself both before and after the Nashville trade. Just because the Preds paid a lot for him doesn’t mean that he was worth it.
Putting Hossa as a “didn’t work” is the silliest thing that I’ve heard all day. He scored more goals than any Penguin in the 08 playoffs and scored several huge goals. That team went to game six of the Stanley Cup finals. Hossa wasn’t as effective for Detroit but, for pete’s sake, they went to game seven of the Cup finals!
Most “big deals” at the trade deadline involve guys who are past their prime. Kovalchuk is a rare example of an elite player being moved in a deadline deal during his prime. The closet comparison is probably the Molginy deal cited above. Here’s ESPN’s recap of it:
Guess which team led the Eastern Conference in goals in 2000? The “defensive minded” New Jersey Devils. Seriously! Despite their scoring prowess, the Devils added six-time 30-goal scorer Alexander Mogilny at the deadline and the 11-year veteran fit perfectly into New Jersey’s system. Mogilny put up modest scoring numbers (just seven points in the playoffs), but his presence on the ice opened up space for his teammates. Mogilny helped lead the Devils to their second Stanley Cup. In this deal, both teams came out on top (which rarely happens). Morrison didn’t miss a game in his first six seasons with the Canucks, averaging more than 60 points per season.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/columns/story?columnist=amber_david&id=3258808
Does getting a big player at the deadline guarantee a cup victory? Of course not, but no-one is saying that and, frankly, its insulting to your readers that you keep on responding like we are. There are no guarantees in any sport (just ask the 08 Patriots or the 95 Red Wings) and obviously adding a star player doesn’t change that. To suggest that one of the top 4 teams in the NHL didn’t become a much stronger contender by adding one of the top players in the league, though, is just plain dumb.
Posted by Kovie17 on 02/05/10 at 06:08 PM ET
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So, what’s the over/under on how long Atlanta keeps their second hockey team?
What’s the over/under on how long Evander Kane stays?
I don’t see this ending well for the Thrashers or their fans.
A recent expansion team can’t perpetually stay at the bottom of the standings, trade away or loose all their draftees and superstars, only make the playoffs once in ten years, and expect to stay in their current location. Especially if that team is in a location that isn’t exactly known for being a hockey hotbed.
Posted by AvsRock from My timeshare in insanity... on 02/05/10 at 11:13 AM ET