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Do Referees Give Sidney Crosby A Break?
by PuckStopsHere on 05/17/09 at 01:19 AM ET
Comments (11)
It was suggested in the comments of my semi-final playoff predictions that referees have been helping Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins win in the playoffs. This is presumably because Crosby is the best North American player in the NHL and arguably the best player in the game. The NHL’s marketing is significantly tied to Crosby and the Penguins. I decided to look into these allegations and see if there might be some truth to them.
The most obvious comment that somewhat discredits this allegation is the Alexander Ovechkin should have been suspended for his knee-on-knee hit on Sergei Gonchar. If the NHL was favoring Pittsburgh, the non-suspension of Ovechkin certainly makes no sense at all. That is clearly the biggest incident that blows a hole in the theory.
In order to take a closer look, I asked The Forechecker (Dirk Hoag) since he has done some work to keep track of penalties drawn. He was nice enough to write this piece about penalties taken and drawn so far in the playoffs.
Looking at his work, we see that the man who has drawn the most penalties so far in the playoffs is Evgeni Malkin with 12. He is a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is the kind of player who has the puck a lot and can make moves that sometimes embarrass the player trying to check him. The only way to contain Malkin at times is to take a penalty. Crosby has drawn nine penalties. That ties him for third overall. He is behind Milan Lucic of Boston and tied with Corey Perry of Anaheim and teammate Jordan Staal. It is more important to look at things in terms of penalty +/-. It is the difference between penalties drawn and penalties taken that leads to an advantage. Brothers Jordan and Eric Staal (the latter from Carolina) lead the league with a +6. Crosby is at +4, which puts him in a four way tie at seventh place.
Crosby is a skilled player who, like Malkin, often has the puck and often puts the player checking him in a disadvantage where he winds up drawing a penalty. Crosby is good at drawing penalties. He was +14 with 43 penalties drawn this season and second in the league in 2007/08 with a +39 and 56 penalties drawn. It is no surprise he can draw penalties.
During the regular season, Pittsburgh had 360 power plays and 347 penalty kills. They tend to draw a few more penalties than they take, but not by a significant margin. By sitting team penalty minute leader Eric Godard, who has not played at all in the playoffs, one would expect those numbers to improve for the Penguins. During the playoffs, the Penguins have had 66 power plays and 49 penalty kills so far. That is an advantage for the team. It is not unreasonable, but it is better than the regular season. If we break the numbers down by series, against Philadelphia the Penguins had 32 power plays and 30 penalty kills. Against Washington they had 34 power plays and 19 penalty kills. The Penguins have basically drawn penalties at a constant rate throughout the playoffs. The difference between their two series is that Washington had an abnormally low number of penalties that they drew. This is unusual, but quite possibly just a chance outcome.
It is clear that the Penguins have not had any increase in penalties called in their favor in the playoffs this season. That part of the conspiracy theory does not hold up to the facts. However, they have drawn fewer penalties in the Washington series than is normal. That fact is counter-balanced by the lack of a suspension to Alexander Ovechkin in the series, which would have strongly tipped the series in favor of the Penguins.
While it is true that NHL marketing would like to see Sidney Crosby go as deep as possible in the playoffs, as he is a player that is easy to market, there is no evidence that they are tilting the playing field to make it happen. At best the evidence is inconclusive (which is often the way conspiracy theorists like things - they can keep believing their conspiracy without actually having to show it to be true). If the NHL wanted to tilt things in Pittsburgh’s favor, the easiest way to do this would have been to suspend Alexander Ovechkin for his knee-on-knee hit on Sergei Gonchar. They didn’t. That is a strong argument against this conspiracy theory. The reason things remain inconclusive is that Pittsburgh drew a low number of penalties in their second round series versus Washington. Note that this is different from the claim that whenever Pittsburgh gets in trouble they get a penalty called in their favor which was first advanced. That isn’t an important distinction to most conspiracy theorists. The fix is still on, even if they had the details of the fix wrong at first and facts that dispute their argument, such as the Ovechkin non-suspension can be ignored.
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Tags: Alexander+Ovechkin, Pittsburgh+Penguins, Sidney+Crosby, Washington+Capitals,
Comments
Well, I looked at a per game statistical point.
During the regular season, the numbers above boil down to:
4.39 Power Plays / game
4.23 Penalty Kills / game
A differential of +.16
But, during the Playoffs, 13 games, they boil down to:
5.01 Power Plays / game
3.76 Penalty Kills / game
A differential of +1.25
Does this add to the support that Bettman and the NHL have an agenda? No.
But it does show that the Penguins are either catching a lot of breaks to gain basically 1 more power play a game and one less PK or the Refs just suck.
Posted by Numbers Game on 05/17/09 at 02:20 AM ET
The reason why they favor Crosby as a marketing tool is because he’s a well-spoken, highly skilled player. If Crosby is used as a marketing tool and they wanted to see Ovechkin and Crosby go against one another in the playoffs OF COURSE they will not suspend Ovechkin on that hit. He’s just was just as much of a marketing tool in that series as Crosby was. Ovechkin’s hit was questionable as to whether or not that was done with intent anway.
Posted by Adam on 05/17/09 at 02:22 AM ET
lets get this straight before the pissing contest starts. calls go both ways all the time for both teams. some calls are made and some are missed for both teams. so its pointless to bring that.
i will say this about the caps. they took some of the dumbest most ill timed penalties ive ever seen. rivaled by only the flyers in the series before. some were unbelievable. their captain, THE CAPTAIN!, clarke, takes a roughing penalty behind the play when he pushed i think max talbot from behind right after the caps went up 1-0 in i think game 3 or 4. the pens come down and scored.
im not sure that crosby gets special treatment or that the pens get special treatment. what id like to see is the same kinda analysis for similar teams like the Redwings and the Blackhawks. both have a ton of star power and recognizable names with extremely high skill levels. its easy to look at the situation and say that gary is pulling for his boy, but are the pens drawing these calls because of malkin and crosby who are undoubtedly two of the top forwards in the game? what are the calls like with a team that has hossa, datsyuk, zetterberg? realistically they should be similar.
oh and any caps fan thats whats that interference call on boucher before malkins OT goal, just remember what got you in that situation in the first place.
Posted by howwwaaaa from on your glasses on 05/17/09 at 02:34 AM ET
skilled players like crosby draw penalties, no surprise. whats funny about him is that more than few time he seems to be whining to refs. thats what selane do most of the time.
Posted by Oilers Rock from Edmonton, Alberta on 05/17/09 at 04:09 AM ET
The differentials between power plays and penalty kills per game during the playoffs for the remaining teams are (errors may occur):
Pittsburgh Penguins: 5.08 - 3.77 = 1.31
Detroit Red Wings: 4.82 - 3.64 = 1.18
Chicago Blackhawks: 4.25 - 3.67 = 0.58
Carolina Hurricanes: 3.43 - 3.86 = -0.43
Whether there’s a conspiracy for a Stanley Cup rematch or a (failed) conspiracy to preclude Carolina from advancing is open to subjective interpretation.
As a Pittsburgh fan I’m rather indifferent to inevitable accusations of this nature, but I would expect to have a positive differential after meeting two of the teams with most minor penalties from the regular season. The outcome against Washington was more than expected even accounting for the Godard-Brashear difference, but I believe that Pittsburgh dominated most of the games in the series and drew penalties as the better team. Ovechkin and Varlamov (early) kept the series competitive. That’s my subjective opinion anyway.
Posted by Moq on 05/17/09 at 06:11 AM ET
The problem with Pucks’ analysis, as it usually is, is that it attempts to address a serious issue with shallow facts.
For instance, if the league were looking to nudge series involving one team or another, they aren’t going to do it by loading up penalties for or against a team game in and game out. They would do it judiciously, in key situations.
Like, oh… as a random example, assigning a specific ref to a must win Game 3 in which the Pens somehow get 6 straight powerplays. Or, oh… as another random example, assigning the same ref to a must win Game 7 where on the road the Pens somehow manage to play a whole game without getting called for one single penalty.
Stuff like that.
So, setting aside those specific examples, there is a logical flaw in looking at gross penalties for and against in the regular season and doing a straight comparison between those and playoff penalties for and against. That flaw is this:
Teams like the Atlanta Thrashers ain’t in the playoffs. By all the laws of logical thought, the PP/PK difference as a general rule ought to narrow in the playoffs, not remain constant.
Posted by HockeyinHD on 05/17/09 at 07:37 AM ET
Anyone who watched the entire Pit / Wash series would know whay Pit had such an advantage in PP’s. Unfortunately for the Pit haters it isn’t Bettman’s doing, it is the fact that the Pens had puck possesion about 70% of the time. It’s tough to draw penalties when the opponent has the puck.
I wish they kept a puck possesion stat as Pit would have set NHL records in that series. Varlamov was the only reason Pit didn’t win the first six games in similiar fashion as game 7.
Posted by McFly on 05/17/09 at 09:22 AM ET
However, they have drawn fewer penalties in the Washington series than is normal. That fact is counter-balanced by the lack of a suspension to Alexander Ovechkin in the series, which would have strongly tipped the series in favor of the Penguins.
Colin Campbell may be a joke when it comes to handing out merited suspensions in the playoffs, but he’s not an idiot. There are at least half a dozen things so far in these playoffs more deserving of a suspension than a last-minute bad decision knee-on-knee collision. If none of those things drew suspensions, there’s no way the Ovechkin play could.
If it is a conspiracy to make sure the Penguins advanced past the Capitals, suspending Ovechkin for that would have taken it out of the conspiracy theorists realm of stuff that’s barely believable and made the mainstream media take note. The best way to keep a conspiracy going is making sure that only people on the fringe can’t be reasoned out of believing it. I would say that a rather large penalty disparity would do just enough.
All that being said, I do believe that the refs let the Penguins get away with a little more than they called, but really, the number of penalties Pittsburgh took in that round was incredibly close to the number that should have been called. The Penguins actually were that disciplined and that was a major factor contributing to their victory. Bottom line, there is no conspiracy theory in favor of Pittsburgh, Ovechkin did not deserve a suspension, and the league remains a joke when it comes to meting out deserved punishment during the playoffs.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 05/17/09 at 09:36 AM ET
Anyone who watched the entire Pit / Wash series would know whay Pit had such an advantage in PP’s. Unfortunately for the Pit haters it isn’t Bettman’s doing, it is the fact that the Pens had puck possesion about 70% of the time. It’s tough to draw penalties when the opponent has the puck.
I would like to refer you to the Anaheim/Detroit series to see how that is not at all how the league officiates itself. 
I think the number of in-game minors that seven game series favored the Wings by 3. Overall.
Look, the NHL is set up to almost exactly mirror the NBA, and in the NBA the refs completely decide every game because 90% of all NBA calls are ‘judgement’ calls, just like in the NHL.
Posted by HockeyinHD on 05/17/09 at 10:26 AM ET
The best way to determine if officiating is causing a favorable condition for one team vs. the other is to evaluate game tape and look at the “no calls”. I don’t have that luxury to review game tape after the fact, but I have watched a lot of playoff hockey this year, and it is pretty obvious that the Penquins get a lot of “no calls”. Example, game 1 Carolina/Penquin, Eric Staal gets called for interference along the boards for taking out a Penquin without the puck, the puck was there, just being played by another player right next to him. Game 2, same exact play, Crosby takes out a Hurricane, again the puck was there, just being played by a different player, “no call” made.
This type of stuff happens regularly. Has anyone looked into this to disprove the conspiracy?
Posted by Jamin Jamie from Michigan on 05/22/09 at 01:11 PM ET
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If the NHL wanted to tilt things in Pittsburgh’s favor, the easiest way to do this would have been to suspend Alexander Ovechkin for his knee-on-knee hit on Sergei Gonchar.
Or…maybe they just didn’t suspend Ovechkin for the knee on knee because it wasn’t suspension-worthy? Just about every analyst and most non-biased observers said repeatedly that the hit was incidental and unfortunate but not dirty and hardly worth a suspension. The league didn’t even fine him, which they would have done had they thought it was dirty enough for punishment but didn’t want to lose the whole Ovie-Crosby storyline they had going.
No one’s saying there is a conspiracy here or even that the series was decided by penalties or lack thereof. The Penguins probably deserved to win in the end. But while the Capitals certainly took a lot of penalties and earned (most of) them fair and square, the Penguins weren’t exactly angels and got away with much more; the discrepancy in man-advantages was ridiculous.
And how does Chris Kunitz not even get a penalty for attempting to decapitate Varlamov? (Although he was fined…woo hoo, $2500 for a guy making $3.6 million a year.)
Posted by CS from Washington, DC on 05/17/09 at 02:19 AM ET