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Goaltender Wins Are A Poor Stat
by PuckStopsHere on 01/14/09 at 01:12 AM ET
Comments (9)
Miikka Kiprusoff has 26 wins in 42 games played by the Calgary Flames so far this season. That projects to over 50 wins this season (50.76 wins). The NHL record for most wins by a goalie is 48 wins and Martin Brodeur accomplished it in 2006/07. If Kiprusoff has a very good chance of breaking that record, one would think he is having one of the best seasons in NHL history. He isn’t. In fact, Miikka Kiprusoff’s play has often been a weak point that has held back the Calgary Flames this season. Kiprusoff has a .904 saves percentage. This places him 30th in the NHL (among the 44 goalies who have enough games played to qualify for the race). His 2.79 GAA places him 26th among the same 44 goalies. Among this group of goalies, Miikka Kiprusoff is slightly below the middle of the pack.
To get a lot of wins as a goalie, one needs to play a lot of games on a good team that wins a lot. Nobody plays more games than Miikka Kiprusoff. This is because Calgary does not have a legitimate backup goalie. Curtis McElhinney has only played in four games this season (and only two of those are complete games). Kiprusoff has played the rest of the season. He has 40 games played and has the decision in all 40. This gives him a record of 26-14 (where three losses are regulation ties).
Calgary is a good team. They sit in first place atop the Northwest Division. Kiprusoff has a lot of starts on a good team that wins the most. He also has something else in his favor.
Goaltender wins are more common in today’s NHL than they have ever been. The shootout has done away with ties. Every game has a win. Every game has a goaltender win. In the old days, a significant percentage of games (usually around 15% of them) had no winner as they ended in ties. Effectively the shootout has raised the number of available wins for goalies by about that 15%. That is why Kiprusoff is on pace to break Brodeur’s record from two years ago and goalies of the past are not in the picture.
Miikka Kiprusoff is not having a good enough season to make the All Star Game. He is not merely snubbed from the roster because each team needs a player. He is off the roster because there is nothing All Star about his play. It is merely circumstance that makes him a candidate to break the goaltender wins record. It is the fact he plays in one of the first years of an era where wins are more available than ever before and he plays on a good team that wins a lot of games that has zero confidence in their backup goalie and thus plays him essentially everyday.
The fact that a player having a season which is not All Star calibre can have a good shot at breaking the goaltender wins record is proof that having a lot of goaltender wins does not necessary make one a top goalie. Wins are a team statistic. A team wins or loses each game. The goaltender is one part of the team, but often no more important to the team than the top scorer or the top defenceman. It can be that the other players on the team who are most responsible for those wins. This is the case for Miikka Kiprusoff and the Calgary Flames. This case clearly shows that goaltender wins are a poor stat to pick out a top goaltender.
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Tags: Calgary+Flames, Curtis+McElhinney, Martin+Brodeur, Miikka+Kiprusoff,
Comments
So you don’t think a goalie’s GAA and SV% are also team statistics?
Because those are certainly affected by the team playing in front of the goalie, just as the wins category.
The Vezina Trophy is a team trophy with partial respect to the individual being recognized.
Posted by Ross on 01/14/09 at 03:40 AM ET
Congratulations on completely missing the point of the post!
The point of the post was to show that goaltender wins are a very poor statistic to evaluate how well a given goaltender is playing. This was done through the case study of Miikka Kiprusoff this year. If we look only at his win totals, Kiprusoff is having an astounding year. One of the best (if not the best) ever. He is on pace to set a new single season wins record for a goalie. Were wins a meaningful statistic to evaluate goaltenders, that would mean that Kiprusoff is having an outstanding season. Clearly, he isn’t.
Kiprusoff comes in slightly below average (among goaltenders with significant games played) in both GAA and saves percentage. He is not worthy of a position in the All Star Game. He is not worthy of serious Vezina Trophy consideration. He is at best a slightly below average starting goalie based only up this season’s results. The only significant positive this season is his longevity. He has been able to play almost every game.
Does that mean Kiprusoff is a bad goalie? Of course not. He won and deserved the 2006 Vezina Trophy and his stats have consistently been dropping since then. As a Calgary Flame fan, it looks like the best chance for the team to get top level goaltending is likely to hope Kiprusoff comes back to form - but as time passes and he doesn’t it is looking more and more less likely. There certainly are worse starting goalies than Miikka Kiprusoff and the incorrect idea that KFF seemed to get that this post was written merely to bash Kiprusoff and the Clagary Flames goaltending situation is completely wrong. The post shows that goaltender wins are a poor stat to evaluate quality goaltending and it uses Kiprusoff as an example.
One thing KFF says is
the blogger failed to mention how poor of a start Kipper had and how that has skewed his stats
This is exactly my point, although it wasn’t mentioned directly in the post. If you can be on pace to set the all time single season wins record at mid-season and have had a poor start to the season, it clearly shows that wins do not represent the quality of play that the goaltender has given us. It clearly shows that Miikka Kiprusoff’s win total is a function of location, time in history and opportunity and not the skill with which he is playing right now.
Kiprusoff is having the worst season he has had since joining the Calgary Flames and he is on pace to break what many people believe is a significant record that shows goaltending quality. There is an inherent contradiction in that statement. That contradiction is that goaltender wins is a poor measure of goaltending quality. It would be hard to find an example that shows that as well as Kiprusoff so far this season.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 01/14/09 at 03:47 AM ET
Ross. I would argue that all numbers in hockey are on some level team numbers. That said, I cannot think of any number that is taken as a serious figure of merit that is more team dependent than goalie wins. I have written several posts on these topics. Here is one that relates to goaltending statistics. There are several more that follow up that post on my old website.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 01/14/09 at 03:56 AM ET
yeah, I’d rather have Tomas Vokoun than Kiprusoff since the former’s PCT. stats are far superior…I know that winning isn’t important anymore, stats count because that’s what earns contracts, but um, like, the Flames are turning into a juggernaut and many of the goals Kipper gave up at the beginning of the season were a result of porous defense rather than softies like those given up by Henrik Lundquist during key points in games - truth is, very few people watch games in the West so they pretty much have no idea what happens in those games other than the boxscores, and those don’t tell the story of how well Kiprusoff has played throughout the year - also, the Flames routinely play the best teams in the league, not the mish-mosh of B-League squads that comprise the Eastern Conference
Posted by NostraChronus on 01/14/09 at 11:02 AM ET
And there’s the rub…Because he plays so much (ergo logs that many minutes), it’s much more difficult for Kipper to bring down his GAA and increase his SPCT numbers due to a larger sample size and simple mathematics.
Not one mention in this piece about how the Flames have been on a pretty good run since getting spanked 6-1 by the Sharks in San Jose in November. I think since that game, Kipper’s GAA is a little over 2.10 and his SPCT is around .912.
Posted by dash_pinched from Rumour Mill Bay on 01/14/09 at 12:39 PM ET
Not one mention in this piece about how the Flames have been on a pretty good run since getting spanked 6-1 by the Sharks in San Jose in November. I think since that game, Kipper’s GAA is a little over 2.10 and his SPCT is around .912.
Basically, you are saying that if we neglect the games where Kiprusoff played badly, we get a group of games where he has played pretty well. Not well enough to challenge seriously for the league lead in GAA or saves percentage, but quite a bit better than average.
And _THIS_ is the kind of season that is on pace to break what is considered a significant record (most wins in a season by a goaltender). That shows that it is possible to get a lot of goaltender wins (enough to be on pace to break the all time record) and not be having a season that anyone could possibly consider one of the best all time - let alone the best in the NHL this season.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 01/14/09 at 12:48 PM ET
Basically, you are saying that if we neglect the games where Kiprusoff played badly, we get a group of games where he has played pretty well. Not well enough to challenge seriously for the league lead in GAA or saves percentage, but quite a bit better than average.
Nope, not saying that at all, did you bother to notice that I mentioned the word ‘Flames’ first and then I noted Kipper’s stats second. Maybe it’s because the entire team has played significantly better (Kipper included) since that terrible game in San Jose. I think that’s what other people who have commented on this piece are saying as well, but since you don’t be seeming to get it, I’ll repeat it. You hang any goalie out to dry (like the Flames did through most of October and early November) and his numbers are going to suffer. That’s not to say that Kipper wasn’t struggling in some of those games, but he wasn’t getting very much help from his defense and the overall Flames defensive zone coverage during that spell.
Personally, I don’t give a rat’s patootie if Kipper gets the wins record. Three straight first round exits in the playoffs is a tough pill to swallow. As a Flames fan, I sure hope it’s not four after this year.
Posted by dash_pinched from Rumour Mill Bay on 01/14/09 at 01:08 PM ET
I think anyone who is a hockey fan and follows todays nhl knows that Mikka Kiprusoff is not the best goalie just because he is leading the league in wins. Clearly Kipper isnt having an MVP season just because of his league leading 26 wins and everyone knows this. I think you (puck stops here) overplayed the importance of the goaltender wins statistic just so that you could write about how Kipper isnt a good goalie. No one was saying hes amazing just because he is winning games and as a flames fan it is clear that you dont know anything about Kipper at all. You probably just looked at nhl.com/stats and saw his name at the top of the goalie wins list and decided to write something about a topic which really you dont know much about in the first place.
“Basically, you are saying that if we neglect the games where Kiprusoff played badly, we get a group of games where he has played pretty well.”
No that isnt what anyone is saying. That is just a stupid argument. The flames were a team that underwent a major change in the offseason almost completely shuffling their forward lines. Obviously when a group of players with no history are thrown together it is going to take some time to get some chemistry. The first month of the season was tough and Kipper was relied on heavily because a lack of collective team defense. Having watched most of the games this season its easy to say that although there have been some soft goals, many of the goals in those high scoring games early in the season were not kippers fault. Defensively the flames were a weak team to start the season and many times kipper was hung out to dry.
“the best chance for the team to get top level goaltending is likely to hope Kiprusoff comes back to form - but as time passes and he doesn’t it is looking more and more less likely”
First of all the grammar is terrible. Second, as mentioned a couple of times before, since the 6-1 loss to San Jose the Flames as well as kipper have picked up their play significantly. In the 23 games since that 6-1 loss to San Jose, Kippers gaa is below 2.50 and a sv% higher than .910 so I dont see how it looks less likely that he is improving his play.
“Effectively the shootout has raised the number of available wins for goalies by about that 15%. That is why Kiprusoff is on pace to break Brodeur’s record from two years ago and goalies of the past are not in the picture. “
This must be a joke. Have you even looked at Kiprusoffs shootout record this season, let alone over his career? This season Kipper doesn’t have a single shootout victory and if you look at this http://calgaryflames.net/2008/12/13/burned-by-the-shootout-again/ , you can see that Kipper’s shootout record is abysmal since its induction into the league.
So dont try to discredit Kiprusoff because his other stats or below average, In the end no matter how many shots you face or how many goals you allow, it takes wins to sip from Lord Stanley’s Cup
Posted by Donsk on 01/14/09 at 05:00 PM ET
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Not tough to tell this was written by an arch-rival Canucks fan with a bone to pick. Made me wonder how many Flames games this particular blogger has even watched. So many strange comments, I’m not even sure where to begin.
It’s true Curtis McElhinney hasn’t played much yet this season, but to say he isn’t a legitimate backup is silly. He played against the Wings in Detroit and was outstanding. He will play more in the 2nd half of the season, as Mike Keenan has already stated. You forgot to mention that part.
Also strange to see so many stats thrown around, yet the blogger failed to mention how poor of a start Kipper had and how that has skewed his stats. Unless you think he is going to suddenly play horribly in the 2nd half it’s reasonable to believe that his stats will improve as the season progresses. And using the All-Star game as some sort of measuring stick is laughable. You probably couldn’t use a worse example, considering some of the name of players that either don’t deserve to be there and are going, or those having great seasons and aren’t going. In the future, I’d recommend steering very clear of any All-Star game comparisons.
Finally, and possibly the most mind-boggling statement was “Effectively the shootout has raised the number of available wins for goalies by about that 15%. That is why Kiprusoff is on pace to break Brodeur’s record from two years ago and goalies of the past are not in the picture.” Not sure how much research you did here, but I’ll help you out: The Flames have taken part in ONE shootout so far this season. Not 5, not 10, not 20. ONE…..........And they lost.
Next time take off the Canucks-colored glasses and try to do a little more research. You’re not helping this site out with such a poor commentary.
Posted by KFF from BC on 01/14/09 at 02:05 AM ET