The Puck Stops Here
Next entry: Top 20 Adjusted +/- (Rate Stat)
Previous entry: Worst 20 Adjusted +/-
How Good Was The 2008 All UFA Team?
by PuckStopsHere on 07/04/09 at 02:33 AM ET
Comments (3)
One question I have tried to think about is how good a team would be if they could sign unrestricted free agents in order to completely fill their roster. This summer and last summer I made 23 man all star rosters of UFA players. Assuming one team signed all of those players in a given year, how good would they be? 22 of the 23 players on the 2008 team signed in the NHL (with Jaromir Jagr signing in the KHL). They had a total salary cap hit of a little over $101 million for the season. Given a $56.7 million NHL cap this team is clearly unfeasible as an NHL club.
In order to get a bit of a handle on how good this team might have been, we can look at their 2008/09 NHL numbers
Player | Team | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Avery | Dal/NYR | 41 | 8 | 14 | 22 |
| Pavol Demitra | Van | 69 | 20 | 33 | 53 |
| Sergei Fedorov | Was | 52 | 11 | 22 | 33 |
| Marian Hossa | Det | 74 | 40 | 31 | 71 |
| Kristian Huselius | CBJ | 74 | 21 | 35 | 56 |
| Jaromir Jagr | KHL | - | - | - | - |
| Ryan Malone | TBL | 70 | 26 | 19 | 45 |
| Brian Rolston | NJD | 64 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| Joe Sakic | Col | 15 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| Cory Stillman | Flo | 63 | 17 | 32 | 49 |
| Mats Sundin | Van | 41 | 9 | 19 | 28 |
| Radim Vrbata | TBL | 18 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Jason Williams | Atl/CBJ | 80 | 19 | 28 | 47 |
| Forward Totals | - | 661 | 191 | 263 | 454 |
Player | Team | Games | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Campbell | Chi | 82 | 7 | 45 | 52 |
| Adam Foote | Col | 42 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Brooks Orpik | Pit | 79 | 2 | 17 | 19 |
| Wade Redden | NYR | 81 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| Michal Rozsival | NYR | 76 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
| Mark Streit | NYI | 74 | 16 | 40 | 56 |
| Brad Stuart | Det | 67 | 2 | 13 | 15 |
| Defence Totals | - | 501 | 39 | 166 | 205 |
Player | Team | Games | GAA | Saves Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristobal Huet | Chi | 41 | 2.53 | .909 |
| Jose Theodore | Was | 57 | 2.87 | .900 |
| Goalie Totals | - | 98 | 2.72 | .904 |
This was my best guess as to who the best UFA’s would be when they were on the market last summer. A few of these players did not work out particularly well and might have been surpassed by other available players, but it was unlikely one would have guessed that in advance.
Obviously if these players all played on the same NHL team, they would have different numbers from these shown. The goaltenders and defencemen played too many games and the forwards not nearly enough. Injuries (and other missed games) were a serious problem among forwards as only Jason Williams managed more than 74 games played. Adam Foote (and to a lesser degree Brad Stuart) were the only defencemen or goalies who missed considerable time to injury. Injury is generally expected to be a problem among UFA signings because the players tend to be older and have entered the more injury prone periods of their careers.
These players would have different scoring totals if they played on different teams, in different roles and with different teammates, so it is only a rough estimate to add up their totals to guess what they might have done as a team. It is unfair to assume that Jaromir Jagr would not score, since he didn’t play in the NHL. Adding in Jagr would raise offensive totals. These players as a group were largely first and second line players who spent significant time on the power play. If they were all teammates, many of their roles, ice time and thus points would be reduced. As a back of the envelope calculation, I think these numbers are OK
The goaltending is below average. While the average NHL team had a regular season saves percentage between .910 and .911, neither of the UFA goalies were that good. They had a total saves percentage of .904. The team scored a total of 230 goals. That total would have placed them 18th in the league between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers. Their 429 assists suggest a slightly higher goal total. Assuming 1.75 assists per goal scored, this gives 245 goals (15 more). This total would have bumped the team to the Atlanta Thrasher or Toronto Maple Leaf level offensive totals. It is hard to make a cumulative guess to the team’s defensive totals, but there are no players who had great defensive seasons onboard. Brian Rolston and Sergei Fedorov may be the top two defensive forwards on the team and nobody seriously thought they might win the Selke Trophy this year. The best shutdown defenceman was Brooks Orpik. Mark Streit also performed quite well on the defensively weak New York Islanders. This team has some players who were criticized quite heavily for defensive play in 2008/09 including Wade Redden, Mats Sundin and Ryan Malone. I don’t think this team makes up any ground with great defensive play and it may lose some.
All told, I am not convinced the 2008 All UFA team would have made the playoffs in 2008/09. They would be a contender for a playoff berth, but they could easily have fallen short. The 2009 team looks a little bit stronger and might do better. We often have this feeling during UFA season. The players available are aging and becoming more injury prone and further past their primes. It is easy to over-estimate their values. The NHL teams frequently do so. For a price of around twice the salary cap, you can assemble a group of the best UFAs available and there is no guarantee you would make the playoffs. You cannot build a team with free agency. At best you can add a useful part or two to an already good team. If you don’t have a good team before free agency, you won’t have one after it regardless of how much money you spend.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Comments
“Ryan Malone stands out as probably the most egregious example”
Redden.
Malone contriubtes, just not according tp his salary. Redden is a net negative at league minimum.
Posted by steve on 07/04/09 at 12:34 PM ET
Good call, Steve. Redden’s was a much worse contract.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/04/09 at 02:40 PM ET
Add a Comment
Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.
Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.
Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.
Commenting is not available in this weblog entry.
Most Recent Blog Posts
Missing Other League All Star Games
Top Defenceman So Far This Season
Karlsson Top Offensive Defenceman
About The Puck Stops Here
The Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.
Who am I?
A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging?
I want to.
Why are you reading it?
???
Email: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
When learning from experts it’s best to learn personally from them, or from their blog. We can provide that with poker lessons blog, your home to learn poker personally.
Do you get shocked from the luck in the game of poker? Stop getting shocked and start being a Poker Shoker
Donate to Kukla’s Korner
Quite a few Rangers teams from the past 15 years or so help prove your point there.
What do you think of the contracts doled out so far this free-agency year? 2008 had a group of players getting paid way more than their worth. Ryan Malone stands out as probably the most egregious example. Doesn’t appear that It’s the case so far this year. The thought of a declining salary cap next year is really tightening the pocketbooks out there.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/04/09 at 08:25 AM ET