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Kane Has It Easy
by PuckStopsHere on 03/21/10 at 10:38 AM ET
Comments (2)
One valuable sabermetric number that is often ignored is zone starts. For each player, the zone where faceoffs occur (offensive, neutral or defensive) with that player on the ice is recorded. Some players are used for many more defensive faceoffs than offensive ones. These players tend to be lower scoring and have worse +/- and Corsi ratings than players who are on for significantly more offensive faceoffs than defensive ones, but those differences in their numbers do not show that the defensive player is a weaker player. They have a tougher job and may more more important to their team`s success.
Last year, Evgeni Malkin was a player who had one of the easiest jobs last year in terms of zone starts. He was the top scorer in the NHL and one reason for his offensive success was that he was put on the ice for offensive situations and taken off in defensive ones. On a team with other offensive stars (most notably Sidney Crosby), it is a poor way for the Penguins to allocate their shifts. Thus it was a good prediction that Evgeni Malkin`s offensive totals would decline this year. Malkin has 70 points in 63 games. If he scored at last year`s pace he would have 87 points by now.
This year, the player who has had the easiest role of offensive zone faceoffs without getting many defensive zone faceoffs is Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks. Kane has had 345 offensive zone starts and 166 defensive zone starts. This gives him 179 more offensive zone starts than defensive zone ones. This is a bigger differential than anyone had last year, though it should be noted that Kane was the second most prominent offensive zone starter last year, so this advantage is not new to Patrick Kane.
Patrick Kane is the eighth highest scorer in the NHL right now. He has 80 points. These offensive totals are inflated by the way he is used. Like Malkin, Kane would still be a good scorer if he was given a harder role on his team, but his numbers are inflated. Patrick Kane is not as good a player as his offensive numbers alone show. It is a good bet that in the future Patrick Kane will play a tougher role on his team and as a result his offensive totals will not stay as high.
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Tags: Chicago+Blackhawks, Evgeni+Malkin, Patrick+Kane,
Comments
Chicago is the team that choses lines based on faceoff position more than any other in the league. While they have some players who are used in offensive situations more than others in the league (along with Kanes there is Hossa, Sharp, Ben Eager and Toews who are among the league leaders in offensive zone starts relative to defensive ones), they also have John Madden and Colin Fraser who are among the leaders in defensive starts relative to offensive ones.
Its true that Chicago must have one of the best team zone starts in the league (I do not have those numbers in front of me), so the number of players with more offensive stars than defensive ones should exceed the number the other way around, Chicago has players on both ends of the extreme. That is a choice based on the way Joel Quenneville coaches the team. That choice positively affects Patrick Kane and it shows up with an increased point total relative to what he would have by more average usage.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/21/10 at 02:36 PM ET
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This is an odd and interesting find.
Malkin’s lack of defensive zone faceoffs last season could, at least, be partially explained by the fact that he was the single worst regular faceoff guy in the league and a coach would have to be crazy to pick him as the guy to take a key defensive zone draw. If he loses a draw at the other end, at least the opponent has possession 150 feet from the Pittsburgh net instead of 20.
Kane, however, doesn’t take faceoffs, which makes his large lead in this category surprising. Could it be that Quenneville thinks Kane’s one of the worst defensive players in the world? I don’t watch enough Chicago to say for certain, but when I have watched, Kane certainly didn’t stand out as a liability to the degree that guys like Kovalchuk, Lecavalier or Briere do after watching them for a few shifts.
I assume Chicago has more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts. Out of curiosity, does Chicago have an inordinate advantage in this category relative to other top teams?
Posted by steve on 03/21/10 at 02:05 PM ET