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Kovalchuk`s Effect On Atlanta
by PuckStopsHere on 03/14/10 at 01:44 PM ET
Comments (8)
When I summarized the trade deadline, I picked the Atlanta Thrashers as the team that had the biggest short-term drop as a result of their deadline deals. Trading away Ilya Kovalchuk, the best player in team history, and not getting any player of Kovalchuk`s level in return is bound to hurt the Thrashers for the remainder of the season.
Thrasher fans were quick to criticize my pick because the Thrashers had gone 4-3 (with two regulation ties) in their first seven games without Kovalchuk. Despite the problems of the small sample size (making the handful of game results not statistically significant), this series of games was supposed to show that Atlanta was better (or at least no worse) for having given up Ilya Kovlachuk. Their luck without Kovalchuk has not held up. Atlanta is not 4-8 (with their two regulation ties) after the trade.
I think that Atlanta did the best that they could in getting a return for Ilya Kovalchuk given that he was an unrestricted free agent to be and was going to leave the team in the summer. It is likely that Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier and the 2010 first round draft pick that the Thrashers received for Kovalchuk (and Anssi Salmela) will have a greater value to the team than the 27 games plus playoffs of Kovalchuk that they traded. The players Atlanta received in the trade will remain in Atlanta next year and beyond. They have a significantly longer time to provide value to the team.
Nevertheless, the trade looks bad from a public relations stand point. Two years ago, Atlanta traded Marian Hossa to Pittsburgh in a similar trade at the trade deadline. Hossa was a free agent to be and Atlanta brought back a few players who are well below Hossa in ability. The biggest question mark in assessing the trade is the health of Angelo Esposito. Knee injuries have stalled the development of this former first round draft pick. He has been limited to 12 AHL games so far this season. Should Esposito develop into an NHL regular, Atlanta easily wins the deal. However that is a hard sell to a fan who saw Marian Hossa in the Stanley Cup finals in 2008 and 2009. The problem is that Atlanta is not a desired destination for free agents. Any key players they have who reached unrestricted free agency have wanted to leave for a better market. Trading these players for a return before they leave is a smart move given the situation.
Ilya Kovalchuk is one of the better scorers in the NHL. He is currently 11th in league scoring with 70 points in 61 games. He has career bests of 52 goals and 98 points and has won the Richard Trophy as top goal scorer in the league once. He did this with an Atlanta team that has not been able to consistently provide him with skilled linemates. Given that he is only 26 years old, it is possible that he could beat those career bests in the future, especially if he winds up on a top team with top linemates.
Kovalchuk scored 58 points in his 49 games played in Atlanta this year. It makes him Atlanta`s highest scorer so far this season. He will soon be passed as Nik Antropov is only 3 points behind him (but in 14 more games with Atlanta). It is impossible that giving up a player of that talent will not hurt the Thrashers. Especially given the fact that Johnny Oduya is the best player they got in return in terms of his expected value this season. This trade has likely cost Atlanta a playoff berth and that makes it the trade that most hurt the short-term fortunes of any team in the league this year.
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Tags: Atlanta+Thrashers, Ilya+Kovalchuk, Marian+Hossa, New+Jersey+Devils,
Comments
So you wrote up a page and a half just to say “I told you so” to poor Thrashers fans over something painfully obvious? Excellent work.
Posted by Frank from The Roosevelt House on 03/14/10 at 02:52 PM ET
The New Jersey Devils are 5-7 since acquiring Kovalchuk, so not exactly a short-term gain either despite a healthy point per game from the Russian.
Posted by Moq from Denmark on 03/14/10 at 06:51 PM ET
Moq
If they were 7-5 would you have drawn a completely different conclusion (it is 5-6-1)? Is the difference between the two records statistically significant?
Is the problem in the New Jersey record more related to a weak performance from Martin Brodeur (he has a .883 saves percentage in that time) and completely unrelated to Kovalchuk - meaning that New Jersey has done better for having Kovalchuk in their lineup than they would have without him, but they have not won for other unrelated reasons?
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/14/10 at 07:05 PM ET
Actually, I didn’t draw any conclusions except noting the unremarkable record since the addition of Kovalchuk. I even implied that Kovalchuk hasn’t been a disaster in terms of points. Fact remains, they got fewer points in the twelve game span with Kovalchuk compared to the average after 55 games without him. A record of 8-4 would be closer to the expected performance. But it is a small sample, and it could easily right itself in time.
Did you exhibit due dilligence in examining every other possible explanation for Atlanta’s downturn, ie. lost for other unrelated reasons?
Posted by Moq from Denmark on 03/14/10 at 07:44 PM ET
Obvously there are many factors to explain the success or failure of any one team and simplifying it to only one player is flawed on some level. That said, Kovalchuk`s departure is the most important of the many factors regarding Atlanta`s recent record (disagree? suggest anything plausible that might be bigger).
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/14/10 at 07:52 PM ET
Atlanta had a 9 game losing streak earlier this season WITH Kovalchuk. Before that point they had a 94% probability of making the playoffs according sportsclubstats. Their power play and penalty kill went from top-8 in both categories to slightly under average. Clearly large flaws other than Kovalchuk, probably coaching / motivation / confidence, or lack thereof.
Posted by Fatty Arbuckle from Bueno Vista on 03/14/10 at 09:41 PM ET
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Posted by none on 03/14/10 at 01:53 PM ET