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Leafs Start Deadline Day Festivities
by PuckStopsHere on 01/31/10 at 02:57 PM ET
Comments (8)
During the NHL season, trades are few and far between until the trade deadline. The deadline this year is March 3rd. Although that is still over a month away, there is a trade freeze during the Olympic break from February 12th to 28th. That leaves only three days for trades after the Olympics. Thus it was expected that trade deadline deals will begin before the Olympic break. They have and the Toronto Maple leafs are at the centre of it all.
Toronto has acquired Jean-Sebastien Giguere from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake. Giguere has not had a successful last year and a half but the talent is there. As recently as 2008 he was clearly one of the top goalies in the NHL. Last season, he suffered through the death of his father and it affected him on the ice. He lost the Anaheim number one goalie job to Jonas Hiller and has not been given a chance to play regularly since.
Toronto acquires Giguere at a cheap price. Vesa Toskala has failed in goal this season. Toskala has the worst saves percentage (.874) and goals against average (3.66) among goalies who have played regularly this season. Toskala is an unrestricted free agent this summer and is playing for a chance to be a backup somewhere in the NHL. He will likely be seldom used in Anaheim, but nevertheless will need to impress to not play himself out of the NHL by next season. Jason Blake is in decline. He has 26 points in 56 games so far this year. That is a significant drop from his 63 point total last year. At age 36, there is no reason to expect that his offence will come back. Blake has two more years left on his contract with a $4 million salary cap hit in both and will likely be heavily overpaid in both. Toronto gives up nothing of longterm value for a goalie who is very talented, but has gone through hard times.
I think that JS Giguere is still a very good goalie. In fact, I picked JS Giguere to be the third goalie for the Canadian Olympic Team. Some commenters gave me flack for it, but it is a reasonable selection. Given a chance to be a number one goalie, I think Giguere will show considerable value. Toronto has him signed through the end of next season, but would be in a strong situation to re-sign him if he works out. Giguere’s $6 million salary cap hit is significant for Anaheim if he was to be a seldom used backup, but as a starter he could be worth his pay. Anaheim gave up a talented goalie that they were not using and got nothing of significance in return. Toronto gives up nothing of value to get a goalie who could be one of the top in the NHL. Toronto is in position to win this deal.
Toronto wasn’t done with one big trade. They acquired Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom and Keith Aulie from Calgary in exchange for Niklas Hagman, Ian White, Matt Stajan and Jamal Mayers. Phaneuf is the clear prize here. He is one of the most talented young defencemen in the NHL. In 2008, he was a Norris Trophy nominee. Phaneuf hasn’t approached the 60 point total he had that season in the following years, but he clearly has a bright future. There are few defencemen in hockey history who have accomplished as much as Phaneuf has by age 24. Of the pieces Calgary acquires, Matt Stajan and Jamal Mayers are unrestricted free agents and likely will not be back. Ian White is the only longterm piece that Calgary has added. He is a good defenceman, but definitely not the equal of Dion Phaneuf. Niklas Hagman will be a moderately useful depth forward, but will be overpaid for it. Sjostrom and Aulie appear to be throw-ins who will have little value.
Toronto acquired two very talented players who were playing for teams that wanted to get rid of them. Toronto was able to give up spare parts with value far below the parts they acquired. Toronto’s risk is in the salary cap space they give up. A team that is struggling in the standings as Toronto is should not have salary cap problems. They do not have a group of talented players who are deserving of raises that they will have to try to keep together. They have several players who have failed this season and have little expectation to do better in the future. Removing these parts will give them the salary cap space to keep Giguere and Phaneuf. Toronto managed to move some of these parts to bring back two pieces of significant value. The Toronto Maple Leafs have made a significant step forward with their two trades today. Next season’s Toronto Maple Leaf team should be much more of a contender than this year’s team.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Anaheim+Ducks, Calgary+Flames, Dion+Phaneuf, Ian+White, Jason+Blake, Jean-Sebastien+Giguere, Toronto+Maple+Leafs, Vesa+Toskala,
Comments
One of the things this trade does is give the Ducks cap space to sign Bobby Ryan next year. He will be an RFA after this season and we have not signed him. For the Ducks this is a good way to free up 3 million, get money to sign Ryan, and to help stay on budget in the tight economy.
Posted by David from Anaheim, CA on 01/31/10 at 05:30 PM ET
I agree with much of your analysis, though you’re being a bit too assertive about the inevitability of Giguere and Phaneuf contradicting the reasons they were traded, ie. underperforming given their salary. There’s a good chance that Giguere will be the best goalie Toronto has had for a while, and that Phaneuf will do better in Toronto. (Your Phaneuf analysis was very generous and not exactly up to date.) But they could just as easily continue their current descend into expensive mediocrity. At least Burke didn’t buy them for pure gold.
And you were a bit unkind in your evaluation of Hagman. He has twenty or more goals for the third season in a row, only Iginla barely has mor goals this season in Calgary. Perhaps you’re unaware, but $3M won’t get you much in this league. Perhaps you can use that in another tirade against the salary cap?
Posted by Moq from Denmark on 02/01/10 at 08:31 AM ET
You’re rather rather dismissive of Aulie’s abilities and value.
Posted by Mark Black on 02/01/10 at 01:15 PM ET
I am dismissive of Aulie. I know there is an unwritten rule that though shalt not speak badly of any prospect regardless of how unlikely he is to be a significant contributor and I am breaking it.
Aulie is big (6’5” 208 lbs according to theahl.com. He is not as big as Tyler Myers or Zdeno Chara or any other member of the extra-large defencemen that are now entering the NHL, but he is big. This group as a whole tends to develop slower than do smaller players. That said, Aulie is not a standout in the AHL. He has 6 points so far this year - granted his best skills are defensive but that is a miniscule offensive total. It is a big drop from the 33 he put up in the WHL last year.
If he makes the NHL it is for his defensive skills - which exist - but he is not a candidate to make the AHL all star team. He was not a candidate to be on the top defensive pairing in Abbotsford before the trade.
He just doesn’t look like he is much more than a replacement level defenceman at best and maybe not one who will stick in the NHL at all.
He is young and may mature, so Toronto is not in a bad position to take a chance on him and see if he develops, but from what we have seen so far, he probably wont.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/01/10 at 01:29 PM ET
Zdeno Chara didn’t exactly light up the AHL in his go around in that league either.
It seems that a lot of your assessment on Aulie is based on offensive stats rather than
actual play or his defensive stats. He was great in the WJC in 2009. He’s not primarily an offensive defenseman and shouldn’t be evaluated purely on his production. He’s 20 and in his first year
of professional hockey. It’s not a surprise that his production has experienced a drop off from playing in the WHL, it’s pretty much a given that will happen.
There are few players (defense, forward or goalie) drafted 3rd round or later int he 2007 draft that are NHL ready. I think it’s extremely premature to write off a 20 year old player who is in his first pro season.
Posted by Mark Black on 02/01/10 at 04:52 PM ET
Few players drafted in the 3rd round or later in 2007 will ever be significant NHLers.
There is no need to write of Aulie at this point, might as well take a chance on him, but he isn’t likely to amount ot much. He hasn’t been one of the better defenceman this year on a team that is .500 in the AHL (where .500 means loses more than they win due to regulation ties). There is nothing I have seen from him this year to suggest he will be a significant NHLer. He is young enough that could change - but it most cases it doesn’t. Most players who are subpar AHLers at age 20 are not ever going to be NHL stars.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/01/10 at 04:58 PM ET
Have you watched many Heat games this year?
Posted by Mark Black on 02/01/10 at 06:58 PM ET
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Next season’s Toronto Maple Leaf team should be much more of a contender than this year’s team.
Maybe, but where’s the forward scoring going to come from? With today’s roster projected next year, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to say that two of the team’s top three scorers would be defencemen. You won’t usually make it very far if that’s the case.
Posted by jh on 01/31/10 at 04:07 PM ET