The Puck Stops Here
Next entry: Uneven Conferences
Previous entry: Biggest Hockey Decision Left This Season
Norris Trophy Race
by PuckStopsHere on 02/09/09 at 12:42 AM ET
Comments (7)
Some years there is nobody who truly deserves to win a major award, but that isn’t what happens. A winner has to be found. It doesn’t matter if that winner would have been an also ran in almost every year in recent history. This year it looks like the Norris Trophy will be one such award.
There is a relatively large group of Norris Trophy candidates that include Nicklas Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, Dan Boyle, Andrei Markov, Duncan Keith and others. How do hockey pundits tend to handle such situations? They find a leading candidate not by looking at this season, but by looking at other recent seasons. Many have done that and are picking Nicklas Lidstrom as the Norris favorite. Lidstrom has basically owned the Norris Trophy having won it six times recently. The problem is at age 38 he is finally starting to slow down. He has struggled through injuries this season including tendonitis in his elbow and a broken nose and has not been nearly as dominant a player as we have seen in the past.
The fact that Lidstrom has won the Norris Trophy many times already is a reason many people look elsewhere for a front runner. They would give the Norris Trophy this season as basically a lifetime achievement award. Who is the guy who has never won this award that has had the best career and qualifies as a candidate? The clear answer is Zdeno Chara. Chara has made the first or second all star teams three times, but never won the Norris. It helps his case that his Boston team is doing so well this year. However, that is a team result. It is hardly one that gets pinned on Chara individually. Boston has taken a big leap forward because of Marc Savard, Tim Thomas, Dennis Wideman, David Krejci etc. as well as because of Zdeno Chara. No one man deserves anywhere near the majority of the credit. In fact, Dennis Wideman has more points and a better +/- on the Boston defence than Chara does. It is true that Chara plays against a higher level of competition (though Wideman also plays tough competition). That makes it a complex case to pick the best defenceman in Boston this season. It is not totally clear that Chara is the correct answer.
I have been supporting Andrei Markov of the Montreal Canadiens, but he is another unsatisfactory pick. It is not clear that he has pulled ahead of the pack either.
Today, I am putting my support behind Mike Green of the Washington Capitals. As is the situation with all Norris candidates this season, Green comes with issues. The biggest is that he is not the best player in his own zone. His case is largely offensive. Green has 46 points in 41 games played. This gives him by far the best points per game among defencemen in the NHL. This gives him the individual points lead by five over Markov. He has missed thirteen Washington games this season. That is a negative. Obviously, he had no impact in those games.
His offence has been so good that it has covered up his defensive deficiencies. Green leads his team with over 25 minutes played per game. He is second on his team to Alexander Semin with a +21 +/- rating. Even if Green is not the best shutdown man in the game, his offence is more than making up for it. He has been very successful this season as an offensive defenceman. He is very good at breaking out of his zone and setting up an offensive rush that leads to a goal. I think he is the defenceman who has had the biggest positive influence on his team.
Some years people win awards for no better reason than somebody had to win. The Norris Trophy looks like such an award this season. There is no defenceman in hockey having as good a season as has been needed to win the Norris in recent years. Nevertheless, somebody will win it. I think Mike Green is the best candidate. However, it looks like most people are picking Zdeno Chara as the leading candidate as a lifetime achievement type award.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Andrei+Markov, Mike+Green, Nicklas+Lidstrom, Washington+Capitals, Zdeno+Chara,
Comments
Zdeno Chara is not having a season that is typical of a Norris Trophy winner. The Bruins actually allow MORE goals with Chara on the ice than when he is off the ice. Obviously that is explained by Chara lining up against the top lines of the opposition, but it is not typically something true for a potential Norris Trophy winner. Offensively, Chara has a worse points per game this year than he did last year (and last year he finished 3rd in the Norris vote). I don’t see what makes him the front runner based upon this season.
However, he has had a good career and no Norris Trophies (yet?). Am I the only one that thinks this way? If we look at comments on James Mirtle’s from the rink blog, Mirtle himself says: Chara was close to winning the Norris last season and that always gets you a lot of support going forward which is as close to a media member admitting a lot of his support comes in the form of a lifetime achievement award as you will likely ever see.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/09/09 at 09:21 AM ET
1) Picking a player based on PAST season success is not new/unique to the Norris. Annually you can find virtually all the awards have some degree of past success being one factor in deciding who the 3 Finalists end up
2) This year, unlike the recent past, the race is wide open. Some are now looking at Washington’s Mike Green. Hard to ignore someone who might score 30 goals and be a +25 or more. That said, all things being equal its probably Chara’s to lose. That’s not an endorsement, just a pragmatic prediction
Posted by Faux Rumors from Globally- Here, there, Everywhere on 02/09/09 at 10:51 AM ET
Zdeno Chara is not having a season that is typical of a Norris Trophy winner. The Bruins actually allow MORE goals with Chara on the ice than when he is off the ice.
Forgive me if I am misunderstanding but I thought the table indicates the team gives up 1.91 goals per 60 when Chara’s on the ice and that Boston gives up roughly 2.2 per 60 as a whole.
Posted by dmg on 02/09/09 at 12:50 PM ET
Sorry I mispoke. Its the +/- that is worse with Chara on the ice not GAA.
Either way, that is very unusual for a Norris Trophy winner.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/09/09 at 12:59 PM ET
“Either way, that is very unusual for a Norris Trophy winner.”
Can you back that up going back 20, even 10 years?
Posted by jh on 02/10/09 at 10:46 AM ET
I do not have the statistics easily available to go back several years. The numbers on behind the net are in their third season and it is a lot of work to generate them. Shift charts do not exist to go back a large number of years.
That said, I can provide numbers for the Norris nominees of the past 2 seasons.
Last year: Nicklas Lidstrom +1.66, Dion Phaneuf +0.42, Zdeno Chara +0.83
Year before: Nicklas Lidstrom +1.39, Scott Niedermayer -0.49, Chris Pronger +1.55
It is quite reasonable expectation to think that a defenceman should have a positive +/-. on the ice relative to when he is off the ice in order to be the best in the league. Certainly the two years show it (and 5 of the 6 nominees). As with any relatively new statistical measure, the voters sometimes get things wrong and pick people they shouldn’t. Whether Scott Niedermayer was such a mistake is an interesting question. Like Chara this season he has a high quality of opposition, which may help explain the numbers.
One thing is clear. Chara has a worse on/off ice +/- this season. Chara has a worse points per game this season. Chara played against top opposition last year as well. Last season, he was the third best defenceman in the league (so say the Norris voters) and this year statistically he is worse. It is odd for a player to have a worse season and jump up in the Norris standings from 3rd to 1st as many think Chara will do. I take that as evidence that Chara is not having as great a season as many think. He is playing well on a team that took a leap forward and is the defenceman from a rather average looking class who would most deserve the Norris as a career achievement award. However, he is a poor choice.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 02/10/09 at 02:06 PM ET
Add a Comment
Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.
Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.
Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.
Most Recent Blog Posts
The Flip Side To Best Teams Pre-Lockout
Future Hall Of Famer Brendan Shanahan Retires
About The Puck Stops Here
The Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.
Who am I?
A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging?
I want to.
Why are you reading it?
???
Email:
Donate to Kukla’s Korner
People are picking Zdeno Chara not because of a “lifetime achievement” but because his game has been dominating this season. They’re taking a look at his ENTIRE game—his IS the best all-around defenceman in the league this season. Mike Green is not a bad pick at all, but should Chara win, he’ll have been just as deserving.
Posted by jh on 02/09/09 at 08:35 AM ET