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Predictions: Northwest Division
by PuckStopsHere on 10/01/08 at 12:06 PM ET
Comments (6)
With the season almost upon us, it is time to start posting my predictions for the 2008/09 season. Today, I am starting in the Northwest Division. Conventional wisdom is that this division will be weaker this season than it was in the past as it lost more talent then it gained in the off-season, but I am not sure that conventional wisdom is right. There are some solid teams in the division and none that I think should be among the bottom feeders in the conference. I think this division will not be the weakest in the West Conference
1. Calgary Flames If we made three lists of the best forwards, best defencemen and best goalies in the NHL, Calgary would be the first team to appear on all three lists. Jarome Iginla is one of the top forwards in the game; Dion Phaneuf is one of the best defencemen and Miikka Kiprusoff in one of the best goalies. Naysayers put a lot of weight in the losses of Alex Tanguay and Kristian Huselius, who have been replaced by Mike Cammalleri and Todd Bertuzzi. Although this should weaken the Flames depth at forward somewhat, it should be more than offset by a return to form of Kiprusoff. In three years since the lockout, Kiprusoff has been a Vezina nominee twice (winning it one of those times). Last year he had a noticeable dropoff in his success. A goaltender of his talent level should be able to come back to form this season. That improvement in goal would have a huge value to the Flames. Goaltending is a large part of the game today and Calgary could very likely have one of the best in the game. The wildcard is coach Mike Keenan. While Keenan has often had short-term success in most of his NHL stops, as time wore on he created a dysfunctional organization that was worse off for having him onboard. This is his second year in Calgary and he may start to wear on the players. Hopefully, GM Darryl Sutter maintains enough power and oversight to prevent this.
2. Minnesota Wild This team employs a very successful speed-based trapping system under a top coach in Jacques Lemaire. This will be a contract year for top scorer Marian Gaborik, which might propel him to new heights offensively. They likely lack enough offensive weapons to win the division, relying on Mikko Koivu and Pierre-Marc Bouchard along with Gaborik. Their goaltending of Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding is solid and they have a strong defence built around Brent Burns, Kim Johnsson and Marek Zidlicky. There is no reason that this team will be fun to play against for anyone.
3. Vancouver Canucks With the loss of Markus Naslund and Brendan Morrison and a lot of unspent salary cap money (despite adding Pavol Demitra), many people are picking this team to do very poorly this season. That will not happen as long as Roberto Luongo is their goaltender. He is among the best goalies in the NHL and has to be considered a Vezina Trophy favorite. They will not be a high scoring bunch, with Daniel and Henrik Sedin leading the way along with Demitra, but they have a solid defence built around Mattias Ohlund, Sami Salo, Willie Mitchell and Kevin Bieksa. There won’t be much scoring in Vancouver Canuck games this year either by the Canucks or their opponents. It is a mistake to count out a team with as good goaltending as the Canucks should have.
4. Colorado Avalanche Pundits look at this teams goaltending tandem of Andrew Raycroft and Peter Budaj and predict a long year. While it may be true that neither will likely be all star goalies, both have been solid NHL players in the past (though in Raycroft’s case not since he was in Boston). Though goaltending won’t be a strength, it won’t be a fatal weakness either. When we look beyond their goaltending, we see a strong forward until built around superstar in the making Paul Stastny, Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Milan Hejduk and Wojtech Wolski. A defence lead by Scott Hannan and Adam Foote should be strong as well. The wildcard here is coaching. Tony Granato already had a failed run as Avs coach and he is getting another shot. I think there is a good chance he proves he still isn’t up to the job.
5. Edmonton Oilers It is easy to look at the way this team finished strong last year and almost made playoffs and see the additions of Lubomir Visnovsky and Eric Cole and imagine it is a playoff team now, but I don’t think that is correct. Last year, Edmonton benefitted significantly (likely unrepeatably) from the shootout. Edmonton led the league last year with 21 shootouts. Of which, they won 15 (only the New York Rangers played in more than 15 shootouts last season other than the oilers). That shootout success made a significant impact on their record. Even if we assume that they can repeat it this season (and there are many reasons to doubt that), there is almost no chance they will play in as many shootouts this season. The Oilers only won 22 games in regulation (losing 35). That shows they had a long way to go to be a competitive team. They made some steps, but may find themselves with a worse record this season due to remarkable shootout success that cannot be sustained. Among returning players, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky are very good forwards and Mathieu Garon was a good goaltender last year.
I don’t think there is a true bottomfeeder in the bunch. In the days to come, I will make predictions for the other divisions.
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Tags: Calgary+Flames, Colorado+Avalanche, Edmonton+Oilers, Minnesota+Wild, Northwest+Division, Vancouver+Canucks,
Comments
And I’m really sorry, but any team relying on Kyle Wellwood to do more than eat after the game is asking for trouble, let alone being a second line//PP producer
Who’s relying on Kyle Wellwood?
The Canucks have a lot of cap room to make changes from this moment until the trade deadline, so anything is possible.
I dont think anyone believes Wellwood will all of a sudden become an all-star calibre player…. they will probably plug along with what they have an be a MOTR team in the NW for the most part imo.
Posted by PuckHound61 from Speckville USA on 10/01/08 at 07:05 PM ET
This completely mystifies me. Edmonton has gotten better while Minnesota, Colorado and Vancouver has stayed stationary or gotten worse, yet Edmonton is going to be the worst team in the division?? Complete lunacy! I think there’s a very strong likelihood that Calgary and Edmonton are 1-2 in this division.
And I’m sorry, but how can you say not to count out Vancouver because of Luongo? Did I miss something? The guy’s been in the league for what, 8 seasons? And he’s made the playoffs ONCE? If you’re going to say “Don’t count out the Devils, because of Brodeur” then I’m on board, but this guy hasn’t shown that he can be the difference maker, between a playoff team and a non-playoff team, has he?
Calgary
Edmonton
Minnesota
Colorado
Vancouver
Posted by Garth on 10/01/08 at 08:09 PM ET
“I think this division will not be the weakest in the West Conference”
Is there a more awkward way to structure this sentence?
“I don’t think this division will be the weakest in the Western Conference.”
Posted by n on 10/01/08 at 09:55 PM ET
Last year, Edmonton was the worst team in the division. They were the worst team by a significant margin. Shootouts obscured that fact, but it was clearly true (look at records in regulation and Edmonton was among the worst in the league). They have improved. They are no longer among the worst teams in the league. They have a long way to improve to compete for first in the division. I don’t think they are there yet. This year they should be much better - but without the amazingly high number of shootouts and remarkable record in them - could put up less points.
As for blaming Luongo for his team not making playoffs - that is just stupid. Teams make playoffs. Players do not. Luongo has rarely played on a playoff calibre team. That said, his presence has made his teams much better than they would have been if he was not on the team. Look for that to happen in Vancouver this season.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 10/02/08 at 02:29 AM ET
Second point first: I’m not blaming Luongo for his teams missing the playoffs, I’m saying there is no reason to think that he’s going to single handedly get his team into the playoffs. ENORMOUS difference there.
His team sucked last year, and he had an off-season. Ok, great. He may bounce back this season, but the team around him didn’t get any better. They’re still going to have a shit offense, so he’s going to have to stand on his head for them to win any games.
If he was on the Kings people wouldn’t all of the sudden be saying “Don’t count out the Kings, because they’ve got Bobby Lou,” because he doesn’t make a shit team into a cup contender automatically. He hasn’t yet shown that he is a difference maker. Sure, he’s been the best player on both teams he’s played on, but so what? If the team around him is shit, he’s not neccesarily going to lift them to the playoffs.
To earmark them as a sudden VAST improvement over last year is ridiculous.
This is a team that has so little confidence in its players that it made a bullshit PR move of making their goalie the first goalie in 60 years to be the official captain. Doesn’t that say something abou the team they’ve got?
Re: The oilers, now. You are acting as if shootouts no longer count towards standings. Whether the oilers were “good” or not, they weren’t in last place last year and they’ve IMPROVED this year! They may not win as many games in the shootout (though they MAY), but they’ll win more games in regulation. How does that make them a worse team? They’ve gotten better on offense, better on defense and their good starting goalie has put a nice year of confidence-building under his belt.
Posted by Garth on 10/02/08 at 01:33 PM ET
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Ouch….I’m not a true Oilers-hater, but do despise them on any given night. But last in the NW? You can argue Calgary and Minny being at the top, but the Oilers should be in that discussion too. As far as depth goes, I would rather have Edmonton’s team everywhere but net over the Flames. Iggy can’t be on the ice 60 minutes, and a talented forward will still make a talented D-man look silly most nights.
I can’t see the Av’s being over .500 this season, and definitely not in the play-offs. Next year with the right goalie and a couple depth pick-ups, they could win the NW, but not this year.
And I’m really sorry, but any team relying on Kyle Wellwood to do more than eat after the game is asking for trouble, let alone being a second line//PP producer. Luongo will push them along in the play-off hunt, and maybe make it (depending on Phoenix, Nashville, and Chicago).
I see it finishing this way: Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota, Vancouver (so-so playoff’s), and Colorado. Now watch injuries flip this 180 degrees and me look like an idiot
Posted by 41 Long Ones from Edmonton on 10/01/08 at 12:47 PM ET