At least we wont have to read 96 comments telling us why Datsyuk is going to get it this year…(or the Hart on the other post from the home page).

Posted by Greg on 03/12/10 at 11:13 AM ET

Greg, I thought you were just a reactionary poster?  Didn’t you say that you only like to troll when Red Wings fans are getting out of hand?  Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate the irony of the new offensive nature of your trolling in a post about defensive forwards, but I’m just a little confused.

Datsyuk won’t win because his offensive numbers aren’t as good as prior years.  It’s a little hard to grasp why that is, but as TPSH points out, the Selke is one of the most difficult awards to quantify.

I saw only the last ten minutes of the third period of the Sharks/Predators game last night and this is only one brief example, but from that and a few others I’ve seen of Marleau, I can’t say I wouldn’t consider Marleau a very strong candidate.  Last night when the Sharks were up by one (the 2nd time), the Predators were putting up a lot of offensive pressure trying to tie the game.  Marleau was on the ice and made a couple of very good defensive plays before stealing the puck and taking it down ice to score a goal to put the Sharks up by two.  It’s a typical Selke-worthy play from a player who does get overlooked for his defensive game.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 03/12/10 at 11:22 AM ET

Greg, I thought you were just a reactionary poster?  Didn’t you say that you only like to troll when Red Wings fans are getting out of hand?

Nope, i thought that’s how it’s done?  Articles about Penguins get blasted with Red Wings fans, so isn’t this the way it’s supposed to be?  Sorry, still relatively new on this site, so was just following the lead.

Posted by Greg on 03/12/10 at 11:28 AM ET

Marleau was on the ice and made a couple of very good defensive plays before stealing the puck and taking it down ice to score a goal to put the Sharks up by two.  It’s a typical Selke-worthy play from a player who does get overlooked for his defensive game.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 03/12/10 at 11:22 AM ET

Props on that though, you’re right that he doesn’t get much respect in these talks at all.

Posted by Greg on 03/12/10 at 11:30 AM ET

How about Jordan Staal?

I mean, I know it’s a little homer-ish, but I think he deserves as much consideration as the next guy.

He’s 3rd in the league in average short handed TOI for forwards, has 19 goals (2 SHG), 45 points and is a +20.  He might be the best penalty killer in the league (again…a little bias, I’m sure).  I mean, the only thing really lacking this year is his FO% (47.6%) and I have no idea how much that would factor into the voters’ minds.

Sure, he doesn’t have 40 goals like Marleau or even 32 like Datsyuk had last year, but he also doesn’t get 1st line minutes like those guys do.

Justified?

Posted by Flashtastick56 from Milford, CT on 03/12/10 at 11:40 AM ET

how about Toews?  I’ll admit to not seeing many Blackhawk games, but if he tries half as hard for them as he did with team Canada, i think he’d be a suggestion.

Posted by Greg on 03/12/10 at 11:44 AM ET

It may be helpful to play around with the statistics on behind the net when suggesting other Selke candidates.  Staal and Toews do not play against as high competition as Marleau (though Toews is closer).  Toews has approximately half the short handed playing time of Marleau.

Thus I do not see either as candidates who are as strong as Marleau is.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/12/10 at 11:48 AM ET

one statistical problem for Marleau is that he has more giveaways than takeaways.  this was an important stat that gave Datsyuk the Selke.

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 03/12/10 at 12:52 PM ET

let’s compare Marleau and Datsyuk since those names were (for good reason) both mentioned…

Marleau
54 giveaways
42 takeaways
+21
40G 30A 70 points

Datsyuk
62 giveaways
102 takeaways
+13
20G 36A 56 points

Datsyuk only has 8 more giveaways than Marleau, but has 60 more takeaways.  Datsyuk wins this category by a wide margin.

Marleau leads Datsyuk in +/- by +8…however Marleau is on a team that has scored 220 goals (+55 differential) whereas the Wings have struggles offensively and only have 182 goals (-1 differential).  this makes each +1 for Datsyuk a little more valuable because goals scored are at a premium so keeping the other team off the board is important.

G/A/P - Datsyuk only trails Marleau by 14 points on a team that has scored 38 fewer goals.  however, the Selke is a DEFENSIVE trophy so why are we even talking about points?

sure Datsyuk has struggled offensively this season, but this is a defensive award…so shouldn’t we only be looking at defensive performance?  in that context, Datsyuk continues to out-shine all the other forwards in the league, IMO.

Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 03/12/10 at 12:59 PM ET

Giveways and takeaways are not stats that I put much value into.  They are vaguely defined and not measured the same across the league and they really do not prove much.  Players who carry the puck tend to have lots of giveaways - and in many cases offensive zone giveaways that have little defensive impact in most cases.  Some players near the top in the giveaway totals are clearly giving the puck away in offensive zones - Joe Thornton, Sidney Crosby and Pavel Datsyuk are among the top 12 in giveaways.  I wouldnt take that as an indictment in the defence of any of those players.  They often carry the puck in offensive situations and do creative things and sometimes they fail - but often they create a scoring opportunity.  If somebody creates a scoring opportunity twice in a given play for every one time they create an offensive zone giveaway (which often does not lead to a scoring chance at all), that is a good trade off.  i would happily take that.

Further the problem that teams do not report giveaways equally is clear.  Montreal has three of the top five in Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek and Hal Gill (clearly many of their giveaways are defensive zone ones) - but they are scored much more harshly on giveaways than other teams.  If you look at these players in their days with other teams, their recorded giveaways went up significantly (roughly proportional to the extra number of giveaways reported in Montreal games versus that of their old teams). 

Takeaways measure one method of playing strong defence.  But it is not the only method.  You can stop a defensive play with a hit or with good positioning that never allows it to start in the first place.  The top five in takeaways this year are Pavel Datsyuk, Ryan Kesler, Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo and Daniel Alfredsson.  They are four forwards and a defender who is best known for offensive play.  The forwards are in fact good defensive forwards - but they are not an exhaustive list of good defensive forwards.  Renowed defensive forwards like John Madden, Sami Pahlsson are strong defensively and not takeaway style players.  This is made more clear when looking at defensive defencemen (who would lead it takeaways are meaningful defensive stat) like Duncan keith, Drew Doughty, Nicklas Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara do not have particularly impressive takeaway numbers.

Giveaway and takeaways are not meaningful numbers sabremetrically.  They reward a specific type of defensive play (but not all types) and they punish offensively creative players (who may also be defensively strong) and are not recorded the same way across the board in the NHL.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/12/10 at 03:08 PM ET

Not to sound nostalgic, but other than my comment to lead off, this article has mostly all postive hockey talk…kind of nice.  If only i could delete mine up top, this would be the first time i think that there isnt a penguins fan talking about the wings, wings talking about the pens, or anyone bringing up OV and Sid.  again, kind of nice.

Posted by Greg on 03/12/10 at 03:22 PM ET

To say that Datsyuk’s offensive numbers are low because he plays for Red Wings who struggle offensively is a pretty weak argument, because Datsyuk is one of the biggest reasons that Red Wings are struggling offensively.

It’s like saying that it’s not Ovechkin’s fault that he was playing for offensively challenged Russia at the Olympics and therefore his only 2 goals should be viewed as a good result.

Posted by Ivano SJ on 03/12/10 at 03:48 PM ET

Agree that giveaways are misleading—it’s meaningless that Marleau has more giveaways than, say, Mike Knuble. One carries the puck and one doesn’t. However, I do think Datsyuk’s takeaway totals (and differential between GA and TA) are pretty noteworthy. As you stated, Lidstrom has relatively few takeaways, so it’s not likely that Detroit is biased in keeping those statistics.

What the numbers tell me is if the opponent’s in the neutral zone and Datsyuk’s on the ice, they better not pass it through the middle. Add the fact that Datsyuk’s ALWAYS, far and away tops in TA/GA differential and you get a pretty clear pattern, which is why he keeps winning the Selke. This year, in terms of GA/TA differential, nobody’s even close to Datsyuk.

Posted by steve on 03/12/10 at 03:51 PM ET

All that means is Datsyuk excels at playing “takeaway hockey”.  He is the best at that in the NHL.  Other players who are solid defensively play other styles of defence instead of forcing takeaways.

It shouldn’t be controversial to say that Nicklas Lidstrom is better defensively than Pavel Datsyuk, yet Datsyuk leads him in takeaways 102-30.  All that proves is you can play strong defense without large takeaway numbers.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/12/10 at 03:57 PM ET

good point PSH. 

more to defense than stealing the puck off a guys stick.  (not to diminish what datsyuk does,  the guy is a magician)

smart backcheck,  angles,  lane positioning,  the impact a forward has on the defensive game is significant ouside of the direct puck play.

Posted by Oregon J from Oregon on 03/12/10 at 11:53 PM ET

Giveways and takeaways are not stats that I put much value into.  They are vaguely defined and not measured the same across the league and they really do not prove much. 

I’m not sure how you can discredit giveaways and takeaways and buy into this quality of competition stat as being the be all end all of statistics.

I’m confused as to how this quality of competition stat is measured.  Is it the teams that these players are playing against?  I mean, is the only reason Marleau’s quality of competition stat higher because he plays in the west?

Or does it take into account the actual players these guys play against?  Because if that’s the case…Jordan Staal’s number should be much, much higher, if only for the reason that he gets close to 4 minutes of PK time per game.  Usually a team’s best players are on the ice when they’re on the PP.  That’s not even taking into account that a lot of times Jordan Staal and his 3rd line are put out against other teams’ top lines to shut them down.

If you’re going to take one into account, you should take them both into account…not just use the one that’s most useful and beneficial to that case you’re making.

And, for the record, I never said Marleau was a bad candidate.  I think that he’s just as good a candidate as any…as is Datsyuk, and probably Toews.  All I was saying is that a strong case can be made for Jordan Staal, too.

Posted by Flashtastick56 from Milford, CT on 03/13/10 at 10:54 AM ET

Here is something I wrote a couple years ago to explain the idea of quality of competition.  It measures the quality of players that players play against.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 03/13/10 at 12:00 PM ET

exactly its a defensive trophy so if all these players are similar candidates than the takeaway/giveaway,which datsyuk leads by far and also usualy scores when stealing puck,    should be something that separates nominees from winners , right.

Posted by martin from seattle on 04/04/10 at 07:02 PM ET

also i should say giveaways should not be considered since its not a puck protecting trophy ......

Posted by martin from seattle on 04/04/10 at 07:07 PM ET