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Shootouts Goals Versus Threshold
by PuckStopsHere on 09/08/10 at 09:41 PM ET
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The next piece of Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold is to look at shootout performance. Shootouts play enough of a role in the NHL standings that this is an adjustment to the value of players is often big enough to make a significant difference in their rankings. This system is one of the few that properly attempts to measure it.
This is one piece of the goals versus threshold system, that goes with the offensive portion, the goaltending portion and the defensive portion.
Shootout goals do not correspond to other goals on a 1:1 basis. If a team wins a shootout, they get one goal added to their goal total, regardless of how many shootout goals they had to score to get that one goal. Any goal scored in a losing cause, does not earn a goal in the standings. These shootout decision goals are more valuable than other goals because they all are game winning goals and some of the regular goals do not decide games.
Given this premise, we must calculate the league average saves percentage in shootouts (STSP).
STSP = (sum (STS) - sum (STG)) / sum (STS)
Where STS is shootout saves and STG is shootout goals.
We must then calculate the conversion factor of shootout goals to regular goals. This is called the shootout decision value and given the symbol STDV. This is done by plotting the number of shootout goals for and against by the 30 NHL teams against the number of shootout wins and losses for the teams and finding its slope. Usually this slope is around 0.8, but can vary by season.
Then a player’s shootout value in the goals versus threshold system SGVT is:
SGVT = (STG - STSa * (1 - STSP)) * STDV
and a goaltender’s value is:
SGVT = (STS * STSP -STGa) * STDV
where STSa is the number of saves when a given player is shooting on the shootout and STGa is the number of goals allowed by a goalie in shootouts.
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