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Stastny’s Offensive Value
by PuckStopsHere on 08/24/10 at 11:46 AM ET
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In this summer’s look at sabermetrics and hockey I have started looking at goals versus threshold (so far only the offensive portion). This is a system developed by Tom Awad, which is kept by behind the net. The idea is to rank players with one number that shows how many goals they produce over a hypothetical replacement player (the kind that could be found in the AHL or on waivers).
When we compare player’s ranks in the NHL scoring list to their rank on the offensive goals versus threshold list, we see some discrepancies. To better understand these discrepancies, I have looked at Alexandre Burrows offensive value since he is a player who does significantly better by offensive goals versus threshold. Today I will look at Paul Stastny of the Colorado Avalanche. He is a player who ranks poorly when compared to his rank in the top NHL scorers.
Paul Stastny was the 18th highest scorer in the NHL last year. He put up 79 points. His 9.8 offensive goals versus threshold places him 41st in the league.
His discrepancy comes from the facts that Stastny is not particularly a goal scorer. In fact nobody who ranked above him in the NHL scoring race had fewer than his 20 goals. Since this system ranks goals as more important than assists, it will negatively affect Paul Stastny. This does not mean that in reality Stastny does not deserve credit for the goals he creates with his assists. Colorado lacks any significant goal scorers - Chris Stewart, Matt Duchene and Milan Hejduk were their only players to exceed 20 goals. There is no great goal scorer that plays with Stastny who is producing a lot of assists that are credited to Stastny that he did not earn. Paul Stastrny is underrated in this system by his lack of goals.
Paul Stastny plays a lot of minutes. He is fifth in ice time among forwards. The more ice time a player has, the more points he must produce to exceed his threshold value. If we are ranking Paul Stastny as purely an offensive player, this is a negative. Sure he gets a lot of points, but he requires a lot of playing time to get them. A player who gets the same number of points in significantly less ice time is a better, more productive offensive player. Stastny is downrated in this system because of his high ice time, when looked at purely from an offensive standpoint, this is correct, but the fact he can handle so much ice time successfully is a positive.
Paul Stastny is perhaps the best example of a player who is rated more poorly by offensive goals versus threshold than by his actual point total. This is because Stastny is not a particularly strong goal scorer - he gets most of his points from assists and because Stastny has a lot of ice time. For the most part, this is unfair. Paul Stastny is a better offensive player than his offensive goals versus threshold shows. It is expected that cases like this will exist when you try to reduce offensive production to one number by a one size fit all formula. This shows that any formulation such as goals versus threshold is at best approximate.
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Tags: Colorado+Avalanche, Paul+Stastny,
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I’d imagine it goes without saying that these kinds of formulas are approximations. I mean, I have no idea how they “work” or how people come up with this stuff. The case of Alex Burrows is interesting because by all appearances he’s becoming a better player every year, and any Vancouver fan would obviously be inclined to agree. But most of his goals are the result of great linemates (kinda reminds me of Brendan Morrison). I’m sure he’s dreading the day he has to play without the Sedins.
Shoot! Shoot!
Posted by Francis at ShootShoot.net on 08/24/10 at 01:11 PM ET