The Puck Stops Here
The Importance Of Faceoffs
by PuckStopsHere on 03/25/10 at 10:55 AM ET
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There have been a few stories written about faceoffs on the blogosphere lately. Jibblescribbits wrote a post of the Selke Trophy frontrunners that used faceoff percentages as a significant portion of his reasoning and behind the net wrote about faceoffs as well. I think that both have over-emphasized the importance of faceoffs. I have written about this topic in the past.
When people begin to record non-traditional statistics (beyond goals, assists and penalty minutes), faceoffs are one of the easiest things to record. The puck is dropped and one of two teams takes control. It is a binary event. Even in the most complicated case where the two faceoff-men tie each other up and a third player gains control of the puck, it is clear that there is a winner. Thus it is easy to record statistics for faceoffs.
When we look at the statistics, the first observation is that almost everybody is close to 50% on faceoffs. Looking at this season’s stats, San Jose has the best faceoff winning percentage of 55.9%. They win slightly over one in 17 faceoffs more than a 50% team would. That difference is tiny and it is the biggest difference from 50% faceoff rates of any team in the league. The second biggest departure from 50% is the Edmonton Oilers who have a 46.8% faceoff winning percentage. This is slightly over one extra faceoff loss per 31 faceoffs than a 50% team.
Despite the fact that there is little difference in the number of faceoffs won between any two teams, one might see San Jose at the top of the pack and Edmonton at the bottom of the pack and assume that this small difference correlates with winning. This is probably a coincidence more than anything else. In studies, faceoffs do not correlate very well with winning hockey games.
When we look to the individual player level (among those who have sufficient faceoffs), we see a little more variation in faceoff winning records. Two players are at or above 60% (Scott Nichol 60.8% and Joe Pavelski 60.0% - both of league leading San Jose). Nobody falls as low as 40%. The worst player in the league is Eric Staal of Carolina who has a 42.3% winning percentage. How much are these faceoff percentages worth in terms of wins or goals allowed by their respective teams?
If we separate offensive and defensive faceoffs and look at the separately, we can get an idea. Chris Drury of the New York Rangers is the player who has the biggest difference between defensive and offensive faceoffs won this season. That difference is about 30 extra faceoffs. The New York Rangers have had 30 extra defensive puck possessions as a result of those faceoff wins. That likely translates to about 15-20 less shots on goal and 1-2 fewer goals allowed. Is that really a big deal? In terms of offensive faceoffs, Sidney Crosby takes Drury’s place as the biggest winner. He too has won about 30 more faceoffs than he has lost in the offensive zone. So that gives Pittsburgh about 15-20 more shots on goal and 1-2 more goals.
The extreme case of one player who takes and wins the maximum number of offensive and defensive faceoffs of any player currently in the league (this player does not exist), that player is likely worth about 3 (or at most 4) goals to his team from his faceoff wins. That is why faceoffs do not correlate well with winning. It is a small signal to measure that is not that different from 50%. There are many other signals to measure that are much bigger in hockey that will correlate with winning by a much bigger amount.
Faceoffs may be easy to calculate statistically, but they are overstated in their importance. Having a league-best faceoff man on your team will not make a significant difference to your record. If you have a player who is good at faceoffs and has no other significant skill that makes him above average, it is probably not worthwhile for him to occupy a spot on your roster.
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Tags: Chris+Drury, San+Jose+Sharks, Sidney+Crosby,
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