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Top 20 Adjusted Corsi Rates
by PuckStopsHere on 08/06/09 at 10:20 AM ET
Comments (8)
In this summer’s look at sabermerics and hockey, I have been looking at the Corsi Number. The Corsi Number is the difference in the number of shots directed at the net (shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots) taken by a team while a given player is on the ice and those taken by his opponents in five on five situations. I have given the top 20 and worst 20 adjusted Corsi Numbers found when treating Corsi as a counting number (total over the entire season). A similar adjustment can be done as a rate stat (per minute of ice time). The main difference between these adjustments is that players who succeed, but in lesser roles on teams are more likely to be found at the extremes of the ratings.
Here are the top 20 adjusted Corsi rates from the 2008/09 season among players with 50 or more games played:
Rank | Player | Team | Corsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Perry | Ana | +21.0 |
| 2 | Ryan Getzlaf | Ana | +20.6 |
| 3 | Sergei Fedorov | Was | +17.8 |
| 4 | David Booth | Flo | +17.1 |
| 5 | Zach Parise | NJD | +16.3 |
| 6 | Dustin Penner | Edm | +16.3 |
| 7 | Marc-Andre Bergeron | Min | +16.3 |
| 8 | Bobby Ryan | Ana | +16.2 |
| 9 | Eric Fehr | Was | +16,2 |
| 10 | Antti Pihlstrom | Nas | +16.2 |
| 11 | David Moss | Cal | +16.1 |
| 12 | Mark Streit | NYI | +15.9 |
| 13 | Daniel Sedin | Van | +15.7 |
| 14 | Scott Gomez | NYR | +15.5 |
| 15 | Ales Hemsky | Edm | +15.4 |
| 16 | Chris Kunitz | Pit | +15.2 |
| 17 | Eric Staal | Car | +14.9 |
| 18 | Trent Hunter | NYI | +14.9 |
| 19 | Marc Giordano | Cal | +14.8 |
| 20 | Bret Hedican | Ana | +14.8 |
The adjustment done here is the same as behind the net does with on/off ice adjusted +/- ratings. The Corsi rate for a player is calculated when a player is both on and off the ice on his team. The difference is the adjusted Corsi rate.
This does a good job of identifying players who excelled in the situations in which they played. It makes it easier for players who had more limited ice time to make the list than in other Corsi adjustment schemes.
The top two players with this adjustment system are the same top two as with the counting stat adjustment in Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf (although their order is reversed). They are clearly top players who are benefited from their team’s defensive line usage. Anaheim has had a shutdown line that has usually consisted of Travis Moen, Sami Pahlsson and Rob Niedermayer, that is used to play against top opponent’s lines. While this line is outscored and outshot, they managed to reduce the scoring rates of opponents significantly. In any adjustment scheme, the Anaheim stars are compared to the shutdown line and this helps the stars appear highly in the rankings.
Only six players appear in this top 20 and also in the counting number top 20. They are Perry, Getzlaf, Zach Parise, David Moss, Daniel Sedin and Eric Staal. Most of the players ranked in this top 20 played more limited roles with their teams. For example, third place finisher Sergei Fedorov appeared in only 52 games in Washington.
One of the more surprising players on the list might be Dustin Penner of Edmonton. The fans have not embraced him despite his high Corsi ranking. His large RFA offer that brought him to Edmonton have pushed unreasonable expectations upon him. While Penner is succeeding in a limited role, he has not been the frontline star to lead the franchise as some hoped for. Thus he is seen as a disappointment.
This adjusted Corsi list is a group of players who succeeded in the roles in which they played last year. Those that played more limited roles are ready to increase their playing time with their team. Those that played frontline roles are NHL stars.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Corey+Perry, Ryan+Getzlaf, Sergei+Fedorov,
Comments
I don’t remember you beating the Corsi drum so loudly and so often last year. Is this a new thing for you, or did I just not notice last season?
Posted by Animal Drew from A Nightmare on Helm Street on 08/06/09 at 11:10 AM ET
In the summer, there is very little hockey news from day to day. I have looked at sabermetrics every summer I have blogged. This summer, it has been Corsi. Other summers it has been other things.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 08/06/09 at 11:46 AM ET
This stat would lend one to believe that Mikael Samuelson is a better player because he directs more shots on net than, say, Datsyuk if they were the same defensively.
When you try to give an example of why a stat doesn’t work, it usually helps your credibility if the example you use is acutally true as opposed to made up and false as this one is. Datsyuk comes in at +10.9 and Samuelsson at +5.6. So this stat would not lead one to believe Samuelsson is better than Datsyuk. It would do just the opposite and that kind of ruins your made up argument.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 08/06/09 at 12:14 PM ET
I knew if you kept pulling numbers and formulas out of your ass you could make a list of good players that didn’t include Datsuyk. But I am impressed! You managed to remove ALL the Red Wings. I bet you are soooo happy. Douche!
ME
Posted by Stuck at work from Mid Michigan on 08/06/09 at 08:27 PM ET
Any plus-minus stat that puts Marc-Andre Bergeron 7th overall(!!) in the NHL is ridiculous. I got to see him on the Island. Booming shot from the point, and nothing else. Absolutely horrible in his own end. That’s why teams keep moving him. And yet your stat places hime near the top of the plus-minus heap for last year? Asinine.
Just my opinion, but give this Corsi stuff a long rest. Every time you post “adjusted” versions of the stat it comes out deeply flawed in one way or another.
Posted by Islesfan on 08/06/09 at 10:32 PM ET
this stat clearly ignores the QUALITY of the shot, making it a useless stat. any lump of meat on skates can direct a shot in the general direction of the net.
this stat would put a player who directs 20 shots toward net and has 18 of them blocked (so 2 actual shots on goal) above a player who directs 10 shots toward net and has 5 of them blocked (so 5 actual shots on goal). this is absurd.
Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 08/08/09 at 02:12 PM ET
This stat is to be used in combination with other stats, +/-, OI/OI+/- etc…Not that I need to defend nor do I mean to insult you or your viewers intelligence; but some people need to be reminded of facts.
With that said, it merely shows that some players ( as most hockey PLAYERS know ) create ebb and flow, others create chaos thereby ruining ebb and flow, and some take shots from anywhere on the ice, netting the nicknames -Nintendo-Players.
Anyone who watches hockey, knows Mikael Samuelson ( defensive type player predominantly -role ) has excellent offensive skill. He plays the point on the Power Play and has Hockey Intelligence but never was known for wheels.
Point is, his play on ice yields SHOTS.
As for Mr “Islesfan”, Bergeron was brought to that dump because your team had absolutely no Hockey skill on that particular team. Soooo, one way for the anemic team to relieve pressure on a defense and a made-of-glass goaltender, would be to have a puck moving defensemen that could actually put up some numbers and that would have any kind of value for future trade options…..
Ohhhhhh, and by the way, in case your unaware…not only is there a SALARY CAP CEILING ( meaning -MAXIMUM SALARY ALLOWED ), but also a SALARY CAP BOTTOM ( meaning -LOWEST POSSIBLE SALARY ).
Your Icelander’s Franchise was most likely near the bottom and threatening to puncture the salary cap basement because they were full of Bridgeport Sound Tiger salaries!!!!!!
So stop trying to put blame on a SOLE hockey player as the result of your franchises inability to yield anything other than an AHL talent level team.
SEE BELOW FOR YOUR TEAMS ORGANIZATIONAL RANKINGS :
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl_organisation_rankings/?start=24
Hey, Thanks for listening folks…“I’ll be here all week!”
Posted by Chris from LI, NY on 08/08/09 at 03:04 PM ET
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This stat would lend one to believe that Mikael Samuelson is a better player because he directs more shots on net than, say, Datsyuk if they were the same defensively.
That, in itself, shows how almost useless this stat is.
Posted by moore00 from Columbus, OH/Grand Rapids, MI on 08/06/09 at 11:06 AM ET