The Puck Stops Here
Top 20 Corsi Rates
by PuckStopsHere on 07/28/11 at 12:31 PM ET
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There is a debate in hockey sabermetrics about what is more important. Are counting numbers (total number of a stat - for example goals) more meaningful that rate numbers (stats per unit time - for example goals per minute played) or vice versa? My opinion is that nothing beats good counting numbers. A fifty goal scorer is a good player and is more valuable than a 20 goal scorer, even if the 20 goal scorer had the same number of goals per minute played. It is often true that players who succeed in lesser ice time have a more limited range of situations in which they can succeed. If they were given the frontline ice time of the 50 goal scorer, their scoring rate would decline because they would have to be played outside the situations where they excel. On the flip side, we are always looking for the next 50 goal scorer and who is a better candidate than a player who has the same scoring rate in lesser amounts of ice time?
I look at Corsi rate lists as a list of players who succeeded (or failed) in the role that they played, but they are strongly dependent upon the role played. It is easier to come up with a ranked list that better fits skill levels from a counting rate list. Nevertheless it is interesting and useful to see who succeeded in their role.
In order to compare players on different teams, there must be an adjustment to the raw numbers. The method used here is the on/off ice method. A player’s numbers when he is on the ice are compared to that of his teammates when he is not on the ice. This is the method used by behind the net. As an adjustment method, it is much more dependent upon teammate quality than other methods. It makes it more likely to select good players on bad teams as top players and bad players on good teams as poor players.
Here are the top 20 Corsi rates from 2010/11:
Rank | Player | Team | Corsi/60 min |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mikhail Grabovski | Tor | +21.3 |
| 2 | Dustin Byfuglien | Atl | +20.7 |
| 3 | Clarke MacArthur | Tor | +19.3 |
| 4 | Ryan Kesler | Van | +18.2 |
| 5 | Mason Raymond | Van | +17.5 |
| 6 | Nikolai Zherdev | Phi | +17.3 |
| 7 | Justin Williams | LA | +16.9 |
| 8 | Tim Jackman | Cal | +15.6 |
| 9 | Lubomir Visnovsky | Ana | +15.4 |
| 10 | Michael Backlund | Cal | +15.2 |
| 11 | Alexander Steen | StL | +15.1 |
| 12 | Jonathan Toews | Chi | +14.3 |
| 13 | Bobby Ryan | Ana | +14.2 |
| 14 | Claude Giroux | Phi | +14.1 |
| 15 | Nikolai Kulemin | Tor | +13.7 |
| 16 | Brian Gionta | Mon | +13.7 |
| 17 | Ryane Clowe | SJ | +13.5 |
| 18 | Michael Grabner | NYI | +13.5 |
| 19 | Frans Nielsen | NYI | +13.5 |
| 20 | Daniel Sedin | Van | +13.3 |
Nine of these twenty players missed the playoffs in 2010/11. While this is a similar proportion to the NHL (16 of 30 teams make playoffs), this is an alarmingly high percentage for a top player list. Generally top players are from top teams. This is what makes the teams top ones.
This list is populated with many of the players who were surprises on the counting stat lists. That is because those players tend to have succeeded in limited roles will be selected because of their limited ice time.
Mikhail Grabovski leads this list. He is a candidate to be given a frontline role in Toronto next year. He is followed by Dustin Byfuglien, who led the Thrashers in puck possession last year. Next comes Grabovski’s linemate Clarke MacArthur. Ryan Kesler, who has the top raw Corsi is next, followed by teammate Mason Raymond.
Nikolai Zherdev remains an unrestricted free agent, but this showing makes a case for him to be a good signing for next year and likely an underpriced one given how far we are in the free agency period. Justin Williams did well in his role with the Kings last year. Tim Jackman had limited ice time last year, but succeeded. Lubomir Visnovsky was my pick for the Norris Trophy, but it is quite reasonable to view his high appearance with scepticism due to weaker teammates. Michael Backlund did well in a smaller role in Calgary.
Alexander Steen did well in his role in St Louis. Jonathan Toews had a good season in Chicago. Bobby Ryan is another player who succeeded on the poor depth Anaheim Ducks. Claude Giroux did well in Philadelphia. Nikolai Kulemin was the third linemate of Grabovski and MacArthur. I think these numbers show that the other two players carried him for the most part.
Brian Gionta succeeded with Montreal. Ryane Clowe had a high raw Corsi, but did so on a top team and is lower ranked here. Michael Grabner and Frans Nielsen are the Islanders two players who drove puck possession. Daniel Sedin, the NHL’s top scorer is 20th.
For the most part this is a list of players who succeeded in their roles. They are strong candidates to be given bigger roles in the future. The few on the list who played front line roles (Daniel Sedin, Visnovsky, Kesler…) had top seasons in 2010/11.
Rate stats are interesting and show things that counting stats do not, but I think counting stats are better to find the top players in the league. I think this list helps to verify that opinion.
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