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Top 20 Defensive Goals Versus Threshold
by PuckStopsHere on 08/31/10 at 01:09 PM ET
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Lately, I have been looking at the sabermetrics and hockey problem of valuing players above replacement players. I am looking at the solution of Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold. I have explained the offensive, goaltending and defensive portions of this system. I have listed the top 20 players by the offensive portion and the top 20 players by the goalie’s portion. Today I list the top 20 by the defensive portion of goals versus threshold.
Rank | Player | Team | Defensive GVT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zdeno Chara | Bos | 8.9 |
| 2 | Chris Pronger | Phi | 8.9 |
| 3 | Duncan Keith | Chi | 8.8 |
| 4 | Nicklas Lidstrom | Det | 8.6 |
| 5 | Drew Doughty | LAK | 8.0 |
| 6 | Brent Seabrook | Chi | 7.9 |
| 7 | Brian Rafalski | Det | 7.9 |
| 8 | Christian Ehrhoff | Van | 7.3 |
| 9 | Tyler Myers | Buf | 6.9 |
| 10 | Chris Phillips | Ott | 6.8 |
| 11 | Matt Carle | Phi | 6.8 |
| 12 | Andy Greene | NJD | 6.6 |
| 13 | Mark Staal | NYR | 6.4 |
| 14 | Henrik Tallinder | Buf | 6.4 |
| 15 | Mark Giordano | Cal | 6.4 |
| 16 | Travis Zajac | NJD | 6.2 |
| 17 | Colin White | NJD | 6.1 |
| 18 | Jeff Schultz | Was | 6.0 |
| 19 | Jordan Staal | Pit | 5.9 |
| 20 | Mike Mottau | NJD | 5.9 |
These numbers were calculated by behind the net.
The defensive portion of the goals versus threshold system is biased to select defencemen over forwards, as it counts defenceman ice time as being worth 1.5 times forwards ice time. As a result, this system is going to select defencemen as the best defensive players in the game. In this case it does that. 18 of the 20 players in this list are forwards. The two forwards on this list are Travis Zajac and Jordan Staal. This distinction between forwards and defencemen is potentially problematic if players exist who play both positions on occasion. How is their ice time accounted for? Luckily there is no significant player in that situation right now.
The defencemen chosen on this list are defencemen who get a lot of ice time on good defensive teams. Since defensive statistics are hard to do reliably, much of this system is ice time weighted averaging of team-based defensive stats. The defencemen who rank highly here are not necessarily known as defensive stalwarts. Players like Matt Carle, Andy Greene and Mark Giordano rank highly in this system, but are players who are not known for defensive prowess. Carle is Chris Pronger’s usual linemate and makes it largely due to his linemate. Andy Greene is the highest ranked Devil defenceman, as he leads the defence in ice time, but he does not play in as tough defensive situations as Colin White and Mike Mottau, who are ranked below him. Mark Giordano had a good season statistically while playing against a low quality opposition. This system cannot find players in these situations.
Defensive goals versus threshold generally picks out defencemen on good defensive teams who play a lot of ice time as the best defensive players in the NHL. This is a good guess at who the best defensive players in the league are, but it can be inaccurate. To get a better idea of this system, I want to look at the top forwards according to it in the future.
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