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Top 20 Goalie’s Goals Versus Threshold
by PuckStopsHere on 08/27/10 at 04:44 PM ET
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Lately, my sabermetics and hockey posts have been about Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold system, which is an attempt to score each player on how many goals her produces versus a threshold replacement player. I have listed the top 20 players by the offensive portion of the system. Today, I will rank the top 20 players using the goaltending portion of this system.
Here are the top 20 players by goaltending goals versus threshold from the 2009/10 season:
Rank | Player | Team | Goalie GVT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Miller | Buf | 38.5 |
| 2 | Tomas Vokoun | Flo | 31.5 |
| 3 | Evgeni Nabokov | SJS | 30.5 |
| 4 | Henrik Lundqvist | NYR | 28.3 |
| 5 | Jimmy Howard | Det | 26.8 |
| 6 | Ilya Bryzgalov | Pho | 26.0 |
| 7 | Miikka Kiprusoff | Cal | 25.7 |
| 8 | Tuukka Rask | Bos | 24.9 |
| 9 | Craig Anderson | Col | 21.9 |
| 10 | Jaroslav Halak | Mon | 21.7 |
| 11 | Jonas Hiller | Ana | 20.9 |
| 12 | Martin Brodeur | NJD | 17.1 |
| 13 | Roberto Luongo | Van | 14.5 |
| 14 | Chris Mason | StL | 13.8 |
| 15 | Cam Ward | Car | 13.1 |
| 16 | Johan Hedberg | Atl | 12.3 |
| 17 | Ty Conklin | StL | 10.9 |
| 18 | Marty Turco | Dal | 10.6 |
| 19 | Tim Thomas | Bos | 9.6 |
| 20 | Jason LaBarbera | Pho | 8.7 |
These numbers are calculated by behind the net.
Ryan Miller leads this group, which is consistent with his Vezina Trophy win. Tomas Vokoun is second. I don’t think most fans realize just how well he has played, not only this year but in the last several years. Evgeni Nabokov has jumped to the KHL and many write him off as an overpaid player who is no longer a top goalie, but these numbers say otherwise. Henrik Lundqvist and Jimmy Howard fill out a top five. Ilya Bryzgalov may have been runner up to the Vezina Trophy and fifth in the Hart Trophy voting, but these numbers do not show that he is fifth among goalies alone. Miikka Kiprusoff, Tuukka Rask, Craig Anderson and Jaroslav Halak round out the top ten. Jonas Hiller barely misses out on a top ten spot. Martin Brodeur is the top Canadian on the list, which is remarkably low given that more than half the players in the NHL are Canadians. He is also a Vezina Trophy nominee, but these numbers do not show that it was warranted. Roberto Luongo is 13th. I argue this was a bad season for him and he will bounce back. If this does not happen, the Vancouver Canucks are paying him too much for these results. Chris Mason and Cam Ward fill out a top 15. Johan Hedberg is the first goalie on this list who is expected to be a backup goalie. He has signed in New Jersey and is expected to be Martin Brodeur’s backup. Ty Conklin is next. He is the top goalie who was a backup in 2009/10. He backed up Chris Mason last year and is expected to back up Jaroslav Halak this year. Marty Turco, Tim Thomas and Jason LaBarbera round out the group.
Missing from the list are the two goalies who faced each other in the Stanley Cup finals. Antti Niemi, the unemployed ex-Chicago Blackhawk goalie is not on this list. Marty Turco, his replacement, made it. Given the difference in their age, Niemi might be a better bet to have a good season next year, but there is a strong argument that Turco could be as good. Michael Leighton in Philadelphia is also not on the list. He would have been 20th if he was ranked on his Philadelphia numbers only, but he was worth a negative number of goals versus threshold (i.e. he played worse than a threshold player in Carolina), so this drops him off the list.
The goalie portion of the goals versus threshold system is the part of the system which is on the strongest theoretical grounding. The problem comes in comparing it to position players. The calibration between then is not clear. Every year the top few players ranked by goals versus threshold are goalies and this seems to indicate a problem exists. The goalies on this list were the best in the NHL in the 2009/10 season.
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