The Puck Stops Here
Top 20 Offensive Goals Versus Threshold
by PuckStopsHere on 08/21/10 at 02:47 PM ET
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Yesterday I began looking at the sabermetrics and hockey problem of goals versus threshold as formulated by Tom Awad. I began by looking at the offensive portion of this system. Today I want to look at the top offensive players in this system. This will be similar to the scoring leaders in the NHL except it values goals over assists and takes into account ice time by subtracting off the scoring that a replacement level (threshold) player would have provided with that ice time.
Here are the top 20 players by offensive goals versus threshold compared with their rank in the NHL scoring race:
Rank | Player | Team | OGVT | Rank in Scoring Race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Ovechkin | Was | 26.9 | 3 |
| 2 | Sidney Crosby | Pit | 22.0 | 2 |
| 3 | Henrik Sedin | Van | 21.2 | 1 |
| 4 | Nicklas Backstrom | Was | 20.3 | 4 |
| 5 | Alexander Semin | Was | 19.0 | 13 |
| 6 | Steve Stamkos | TBL | 17.4 | 5 |
| 7 | Mike Green | Was | 17.1 | 21 |
| 8 | Daniel Sedin | Van | 16.9 | 12 |
| 9 | Marian Gaborik | NYR | 16.6 | 10 |
| 10 | Patrick Marleau | SJS | 15.9 | 14 |
| 11 | Pâtrick Kane | Chi | 15.8 | 9 |
| 12 | Dany Heatley | SJS | 15.0 | 15 |
| 13 | Joe Thornton | SJS | 14.4 | 8 |
| 14 | Zach Parise | NJD | 14.2 | 16 |
| 15 | Martin St Louis | TBL | 14.1 | 6 |
| 16 | Duncan Keith | Chi | 13.7 | 34 |
| 17 | Brad Richards | Dal | 13.2 | 7 |
| 18 | Alexandre Burrows | Van | 12.7 | 36 |
| 19 | Anze Kopitar | LAK | 12.7 | 17 |
| 20 | Evgeni Malkin | Pit | 12.3 | 19 |
For the most part this list is the same as the NHL top scorers. Defencemen get a boost in this system as their offensive performance is prepared to other defencemen and not forwards. Thus we see Mike Green and Duncan Keith on this list, but not in the top 20 NHL scorers.
Alexander Ovechkin takes over the lead by this measure due to reduced playing time (since he missed ten games) when compared to Sidney Crosby and Henrik Sedin. The player with the biggest boost versus him standing in the NHKL top scorers is Alexandre Burrows who has less playing time than most players with his offensive totals. The three players in the NHL top 20 scorers who do not appear here are Ilya Kovalchuk, Paul Stastny and Corey Perry who played large amounts of playing time to get their totals.
The offensive goals versus threshold is a method to approximate the offensive contribution of individual players. As case studies, I want to take more in depth looks at Alexandre Burrows, who benefits significantly from this method and Paul Stastny, who is hurt by it.
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