Two of the three Hart Trophy nominees in Henrik Sedin and Sidney Crosby appear on this list.  Alexander Ovechkin does not.  The fact Ovechkin has essentially the same offensive numbers as the other two, while playing a slightly more defensive role (he has 66 more offensive zone starts than defensive ones) is another reason that he should have been MVP this season.

You had me until you got here. Ignoring the fact that you think the only context a player’s numbers require is zone start adjustments, this still makes absolutely no sense. If you really want to talk about the most valuable player to a team when it comes to zone starts and faceoffs, what about looking at which players took the greatest proportion of their team’s faceoffs? Looking at the list, we see that Crosby was 1st in the NHL, taking 38.2% of his team’s faceoffs. Which leads to another point - Ovechkin doesn’t even take faceoffs! If anything, Crosby and Sedin get a huge plus over Ovechkin because they’re both taking over 1,500 faceoffs on the year, which is a skill that Ovechkin gets ignore both at practice and in the game. Considering that Crosby and Sedin put up either the same or better numbers offensively while also taking a shit ton of faceoffs is unarguably a point in their favor. How you can look at these numbers and come to the conclusion that Ovechkin should come out ahead is beyond me.

The players with significantly more offensive zone starts than defensive ones had easier roles to play on their teams.

This might be true on the whole, but it’s not true with Crosby. While he had a large number of o-zone starts, he was also used extensively in the d-zone. Not only did he have the most d-zone starts on Pittsburgh, but looking at d-zone starts among centers who played 40 games this year, Crosby is 27th out of 149 players, ahead of defensive specialists like Mikko Koivu, Patrice Bergeron, and Jonathon Towes.

Posted by GoPens on 07/18/10 at 10:15 AM ET

I prefer to watch the games instead of basing my conclusion SOLELY on numbers.

Posted by cs6687 on 07/18/10 at 10:58 AM ET

I don’t want to be negative but this really feels like stretching data to fit certain arguments.  The list is interesting, but I’m not sure I agree with the conclusions pulled from the information.

Maybe I’m just interpreting wrong, but why is confidence in offensive abilities necessarily a lack of a confidence in defensive abilities for Crosby and Sedin?  Washington had a lot more in the way of scoring options at forward that a coach would feel comfortable with.  If I’m Bylsma or Vigneault I’m getting Crosby and Sedin out on the ice at every o-zone faceoff I can…I need to.

You used the same offensive zone start reasoning to say Malkin was the most overrated player in the league.

http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh/comments/malkin_has_not_been_a_difference_maker/

So now Crosby and Malkin are overrated? How do the Penguins win?  Sure wasn’t Fleury.

I can understand the Malkin argument, but my point is this list is just missing far too many other elements of the game taken into account.

Posted by Colligan on 07/18/10 at 11:12 AM ET

GoPens

I am not arguing that this number alone is the reason Ovechkin should be MVP.  I have an extensive argument here.  However, the fact that in similar ice time, Ovechkin was trusted with more defensive sitautions is an argument in his favor.

Arguing MVP based upon faceoffs is kind of silly.  Everyone who wins faceoffs wins 50 +/- epsilon percent (where epsilon is small).  Crosby is no different at 55.9% of faceoffs won and he is a league leader and barely better than average simultaneously.  So what if Ovechkin doesn’t take faceoffs.  That is because he plays left wing.  Are you trying to argue that only centres can be MVPs since only centres take faceoffs?  Finally, your ranking of Crosby by his counting number of defensive zone starts merely shows he had a lot of ice time.  That is why the difference between offensive and defensive starts is important.

Cs6687

Me too!

Colligan

Who called Crosby or Sedin overrated?  Not me.  I am merely arguing Ovechkin should have been MVP in 2009/10.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/18/10 at 11:27 AM ET

However, the fact that in similar ice time, Ovechkin was trusted with more defensive sitautions is an argument in his favor.

First of all, the difference in d-zone draws for OV (384) and Sid (378) is about as marginal as they come. And considering that Crosby is the player who actually takes the draw, I don’t think it makes any sense to conclude that Ovechkin is the guy who’s defensively responsible. If the center loses the draw, there’s not much a wing can do until the other team gets a shot off. Those situations are more about the centerman than anything else.

Arguing MVP based upon faceoffs is kind of silly.

I’m not. I’m arguing that in the MVP race, Crosby and Sedin get mad points over Ovechkin for shouldering a burden that Ovechkin doesn’t have.

Everyone who wins faceoffs wins 50 +/- epsilon percent (where epsilon is small).

I don’t think this is true. If you look at guys with 600 or more faceoffs, Malhotra led the league with a 62.5 FO%, while Tim Kennedy was last with a 33.5 FO%. There’s a big difference in faceoff guys, and standard deviation is especially helpful at looking who excelled and who didn’t.

Crosby is no different at 55.9% of faceoffs won and he is a league leader and barely better than average simultaneously.

Crosby is at least two standard deviations above the mean, which puts him above 95% of the league.

Are you trying to argue that only centres can be MVPs since only centres take faceoffs?

Once again, no. But if a wing is competing against two centermen for the Hart, those guys get a big plus over OV since they have to master another skill-set in hockey.

Finally, your ranking of Crosby by his counting number of defensive zone starts merely shows he had a lot of ice time.  That is why the difference between offensive and defensive starts is important.

Crosby shouldn’t be penalized because he was by far the best player on his team. Looking at the fact that he led the league in percent of team’s faceoffs taken helps provide context to his zone start numbers. He’s being used in the d-zone as much as other top defensive centers; he’s just so much better offensively that he also takes a ton of draws in the other end, which ultimately is a big point in his favor when considering his nomination for the Hart.

Posted by GoPens on 07/18/10 at 02:47 PM ET

PSH: However, the fact that in similar ice time, Ovechkin was trusted with more defensive sitautions is an argument in his favor.

GP:First of all, the difference in d-zone draws for OV (384) and Sid (378) is about as marginal as they come

PSH: You have ran into the same fallacy by looking at raw totals without context.  That is why the difference between offensive and defensive zone starts is an important number and not the total number of offensive or defensive zone starts.

——

PSH: Arguing MVP based upon faceoffs is kind of silly.

GP: I’m not. I’m arguing that in the MVP race, Crosby and Sedin get mad points over Ovechkin for shouldering a burden that Ovechkin doesn’t have.

PSH:  They won 50+/- epsilon %.  That translates to almost nothing in terms of goals or wins.  Its a negligible contribution to the MVP or any other race.

GP: Crosby is at least two standard deviations above the mean, which puts him above 95% of the league.

PSH:  When two standard deviations above the mean is 5.9% above average (50%) we must conclude that although Crosby is a very good faceoff man, he is also barely better than average.  And when the best are barely better than average, there is little to be gained by dwelling on this skill instead of the ones that are far more important to winning hockey games.

GP: Crosby shouldn’t be penalized because he was by far the best player on his team.

PSH:  He isn’t being penalized for that.  All three MVP nominees were by far the best player on their team in 2009/10.  In this particular post, I point out that Crosby is not given as much defensive responsibility as Ovechkin as shown by zone starts.  Washington as a team had more offensive zone starts than Pitsburgh as a team, yet Ovechkin had a more balanced role on his team (between both offensive and defensive zone starts) than either of crosby or Sedin.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/18/10 at 03:12 PM ET

PSH is right.  Ovy should’ve won MVP this year.  He was clearly the best player in the NHL.  If he would’ve played as many games as Crybaby and Sedin then he would have smashed them in points.

I disagree with the emphasis of Corsi stats however.  Backstrom is our best defensive center by far.  What you are not taking into account is the coaches decision to maximize a strength by putting your best offensive players in their strength, being the offensive zone.  It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that if you have an offensive zone faceoff and you can change your lines, you want your top of the line offensive guys out there while if you have a defensive zone faceoff you want your bottom six guys out there. 

With the defensemen, why would we put Green out in the defensive zone first?  He’s more of a threat offensively and you want to take advantage of his offense.  Do we seriously want to put him out in the defensive zone first so we can watch him stand in front of Varly and do nothing? 

These stats are only somewhat relevant based on each team, their coach, and how they use players.

Posted by Bruce on 07/18/10 at 04:09 PM ET

why would you when you have Jordan Staal or Ryan Kesler?  Doesn’t mean they aren’t “trusted” just that if the coach doesn’t have to use his star player because he has an amazing defensive player to take the punishment, then why not.  Does it mean that Ovi is a better D player than Sid, I think no.

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 07/18/10 at 04:14 PM ET

Hockeytown Overhaul

Clearly you do not understand.  The argument is as follows.

Players who have lots of offensive zone starts (relative to their defensive ones) will by starting shifts in the offensive zone score more points and get better Corsi, +/- ratings etc.

Ovechkin, Crosby and Sedin had roughly the same point total and of the three only Ovechkin was well back of the top 20 offensive zone starts.  Hence Ovechkin would have had even more points if he was given the same offensive chance that Crosby or Sedin were.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/18/10 at 04:17 PM ET

GoPens

I thought again about your statement:

Not only did he have the most d-zone starts on Pittsburgh, but looking at d-zone starts among centers who played 40 games this year, Crosby is 27th out of 149 players, ahead of defensive specialists like Mikko Koivu, Patrice Bergeron, and Jonathon Towes

And I realized you had things wrong.  Those numbers are the number of times that Crosby ended a shift in his defensive zone.  Having a large number of shifts end in the defensive zone is not an argument in his favor.  It shows that the other team possessed the puck often enough during Crosby’s shifts to frequently pin the Penguins in their own zone by the end of the shift.

Of course, you still have the problem that Crosby played a lot of hockey.  He played far more shifts than most centremen, thus he will have a lot of shifts that end in the offensive, neutral and defensive zones.  Again, this is why you need to look at the difference between the numbers and not the raw numbers themselves.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/18/10 at 07:57 PM ET

Oh man, that changes things. Thanks for the tip-off PSH.

Posted by GoPens on 07/18/10 at 09:26 PM ET

It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that if you have an offensive zone faceoff and you can change your lines, you want your top of the line offensive guys out there while if you have a defensive zone faceoff you want your bottom six guys out there. 

If you’re a one-dimensional team full of players that only know one way to play the game, it certainly doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize this.  It also doesn’t take a brain surgeon to plan a way to defeat this team in the playoffs.

Speaking of which, I don’t think Ovechkin was trusted the most defensively among MVP candidates.  I think Boudreau pays the least attention to these kinds of things.

This is getting towards an off-topic discussion about the bare fact that centers are naturally more defensively sound than wingers by virtue of their position and that’s not what this discussion is about.

As for only being slightly above average on faceoffs, well that’s fine, but you do have an assumed correlation in this article between starting in the offensive zone more and having a higher Corsi.  Winning a faceoff is part of that consideration and a person who does it 5.9% more often over the course of a season is going to have no insignificant amount of better chances for a higher Corsi, right?  I wonder (read: am unwilling to do the statistical analysis) what kind of correlation between Crosby and the average, considering his also above-average number of shifts for a center, there may be between Crosby’s ability to win faceoffs and his or his team’s Corsi rating.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/19/10 at 08:46 AM ET

I have to agree with cs6687 and colligan…

Data, Numbers or Stats can be used to prove any point, or any point of view, I personally think Mike Green is not as much as a defensive liability as people set him up to be, but I can show you stats that prove he is and stats that show he isn’t… but in the end, my knowledge for hockey combined with watching him play is what makes me decide.

I also think players should be penalized because they play with better players, or in better situations, it does help them for sure, but it’s not to say they wouldn’t thrive on being on their own, like Malkin did a couple of seasons ago when Crosby was injured and he just tore it up…

Posted by MikeGreenFan from Laval, Quebec, Canada on 07/19/10 at 02:52 PM ET

Ovechkin, Crosby and Sedin had roughly the same point total and of the three only Ovechkin was well back of the top 20 offensive zone starts.

But we only looked at one side of the story.  What about the defensive zone starts?  If, say, Ovechkin was well back of Crosby and Sedin in defensive zone starts, then the zone start based argument for Ovechkin vanishes.  I haven’t checked the stats, however.

More importantly, remember that zone starts are directly related to the number of stoppages.  Some games have more stoppages and therefore more zone starts.  A player may do exactly the same thing but gets an extra offensive zone start if his teammate shoots into the goalie’s glove rather than into the net or misses the shot.

Posted by Kel on 07/25/10 at 09:35 PM ET

Kel

But we only looked at one side of the story.  What about the defensive zone starts?

This number is offensive zone starts - defensive ones.  So there is no other side of the story to look at.  This number looks at both.

More importantly, remember that zone starts are directly related to the number of stoppages.  Some games have more stoppages and therefore more zone starts.  A player may do exactly the same thing but gets an extra offensive zone start if his teammate shoots into the goalie’s glove rather than into the net or misses the shot

This effect washes out over the length of a season.  It isn’t meaningful in any way.

These two attempts to find some hole in this number seem to show a lack of understanding in what is being measured.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/25/10 at 11:48 PM ET

This number is offensive zone starts - defensive ones. 

But your table only reads “offensive zone starts” in the column description.  Maybe it could have been changed to reflect that?

This effect washes out over the length of a season

Any proof of that?  A quick search showed me that San Jose had the best FO% last season, but they had 4740 faceoffs taken.  New Jersey had the worst FO%, and they had 4244 faceoffs taken.  It’s a signifcant difference and I only looked two teams that may not even be the two extremes in terms of the overall number of faceoffs.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 12:06 AM ET

Correction: San Jose and New Jersey had the most/least faceoff won, not % as I stated.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 12:07 AM ET

But your table only reads “offensive zone starts” in the column description.  Maybe it could have been changed to reflect that?

The text lays out what I am calling an “offensive zone start”

Since this is a differential measurement (offensive faceoffs - defensive ones) it has what scientists call “common mode rejection” - as any effect that is seen to limit total faceoffs will limit both offensive ones and defensive ones and wash out in the measurement.

At any rate, Alexander Ovechkin is not on the ice as often (differentially) for offensive faceoffs as Sedin or Crosby and that shows that he has had less of an offensive role overall and that should reduce his offensive numbers relative to the other two players.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/26/10 at 12:11 AM ET

Whatever, you are just unable to admit any error.  The table column listing the “offensive zone starts - defensive zone starts” numbers yet the label only reads “Offensive Zone Starts”.  An easy and accurate way to label it would be “zone starts differential”

any effect that is seen to limit total faceoffs will limit both offensive ones and defensive ones

That’s not proven.  For example, a good goalie that gives out very few rebounds increases one team’s defensive zone starts.  This won’t affect the offensive zone start number at all.

Ovechkin did produce more point-per-game than the other two Hart Trophy finalists, so offensively he’s better.  I am not sure he had less of an offensive role overall than other players given how good he is offensively.  He surely is way behind the other two in terms of PK minutes.  He and Crosby also had a lot more PP minutes than Sedin.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 12:42 AM ET

PSH: any effect that is seen to limit total faceoffs will limit both offensive ones and defensive ones

Kel:That’s not proven.  For example, a good goalie that gives out very few rebounds increases one team’s defensive zone starts.  This won’t affect the offensive zone start number at all.

PSH:  By definition, any effect that limits total faceoffs limits both offensive and defensive zone ones.  You are claiming an effect that affects defnsive zone ones exists. 

The firsat observation is that two of the top 20 players on this list are Washington teammates of Ovechkin, so this effect can not be significant as it has not significantly hurt teammates.

A stronger way to dismiss things is to look at individual teams zone starts.  Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver all have similar records within about 20 offensive - defensive zone starts of one another (the entire NHL is separated by about 300 differential zone starts from first place to last).  There is not a significant difference on the team level between the Penguins, Capitals or Canucks.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/26/10 at 01:21 AM ET

PSH: By definition, any effect that limits total faceoffs limits both offensive and defensive zone ones. You are claiming an effect that affects defnsive zone ones exists. 

By definition, any effect that limits total faceoffs limits both offensive and defensive zone ones for the league overall.  I am claiming an effect that affects defensive zone ones for ONE team and affects offensive zone for 29 teams distributed.  And I’m not trying to focus on the three teams with Hart Trophy finalists when talking about zone starts generally.  And for Ovechkin, I said he is the best offensive player among the three and I highly disagree with the idea that he was used in a more defensive role than two centers, and zone start differential alone can’t convince me, in face of the specialty team stats.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 02:15 AM ET

Kel:

Once again you are shifting away from what is being discussed.  Every number I have shown (Corsi, zone starts) is a 5 on 5 number.  At 5 on 5, Ovechkin was given a more defensive role than Sedin or Crosby.  There is no discussion at this point of special teams,

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/26/10 at 10:04 AM ET

At 5 on 5, Ovechkin was given a more defensive role than Sedin or Crosby.

I disagree.  You made this above assertion only based on zone start differential, which is one number only about the location of shift starts.  If you want to analyze how much of a defensive role a player is given at 5 on 5, you have to look at more factors.  A very important factor is the score of the game when the player is put on the ice.  Is he out more when his team is leading towards the end of the game?  That would be a player entrusted with a more defensive role.  Is he double-shifting when his team is trailing by a goal?  If so, then the player is used in an offensive role, even if he started his extra shifts from the defensive zone.  Ovechkin, in this case, has a regular linemate Backstrom with a high offensive zone start differential.  We can conclude that he was double-shifted fairly often by his coach (because his number is quite different from Backstrom).  In his regular shift, he’s used to fill an offensive role for sure.  In his extra shift, we know that it happened to start from the defensive zone quite a lot relatively.  I highly doubt that the coach used Ovechkin to help defend a lead in a double-shifting situation.  It doesn’t make sense.  More likely (I don’t know how to find the stats, but from watching the Caps games that’s impression), the coach double-shifted him when his team needed a goal to tie the game, and more often than not those double-shifting opportunities came at defensive zone faceoffs.  It makes sense because in those games his team was not having a great night and/or facing a tough opponent.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 11:16 AM ET

And Crosby got double shifted.  Sedin got double shifted too.

The difference between the different players is not double shifting.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/26/10 at 11:20 AM ET

The difference between Backstrom’s high offensive zone start differential and Ovechkin’s lower number has to come from doubleshifting.  Ovechkin averaged 1 minute (57 seconds to be exact)  more per game at even-strength than Backstrom.  It’s obvious that those extra 1 minute per game dragged down his offensive zone start differential.  Did he play extra those minutes to provide offense or defense?  Yes, those shifts started from the defensive zone more than his regular shifts.  But that alone would not be a strong argument that he was out there to provide defense.  You really have to look at the score of the game and the opponents he played against during those shifts.  He’s the best offensive weapon of his team if not the entire league.  He’s out there more often because his coach wants the team to score more. 

I agree that starting more shifts in the defensive zone tends to lower a player’s scoring production.  Ovechkin scored 72 ES points in 72 games, H Sedin 83 ES points in 82 games, Crosby 72 in 82.  But wait.  Ovechkin played 16:40 ES minutes per game, Sedin 15:34, Crosby 16:03.  So, Ovechkin’s lower offensive zone start differential is already reflected in his lower ES points per minute of ice time relative to Sedin (higher than Crosby, of course).  But that is still very impressive and the best player to generate offense in the league, especially if you consider PP point production.

Also, there are different types of doubleshifting.  And I can say with confidence that Sedin gets doubleshifted rarely (because he plays almost exclusively with his brother and they basically form a line on their own). When he is , it’s more often that he is double-shifted as an extra C to take faceoffs in key defensive situations.  I have more or less watched every game Sedin has played in his NHL career.

Posted by Kel on 07/26/10 at 01:03 PM ET