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Worst 20 Adjusted +/-
by PuckStopsHere on 07/03/09 at 01:18 AM ET
Comments (15)
A while back I posted the top 20 adjusted +/- ratings using a counting stat method developed in the Hockey Compendium by Jeff Z. Klein and Karl-Eric Reif.
Here are the worst 20 players last season according to their adjusted +/- ratings. This group is limited to players who played at least 50 games last season and played only for one team - that is necessary for the method to give good results.
1. Rod Brind’Amour Carolina Hurricanes -23.6
2. Brendan Witt New York Islanders -22.6
3. Jay Pandolfo New Jersey Devils -19.6
4. Kris Draper Detroit Red Wings -19.0
5. Rob Niedermayer Anaheim Ducks -18.6
6. Brad Boyes St Louis Blues -17.2
7. Matt D’Agostini Montreal Canadiens -16.0
8. Christian Ehrhoff San Jose Sharks -15.2
9. Cam Barker Chicago Blackhawks -15.0
Kirk Maltby Detroit Red Wings -15.0
11. John Madden New Jersey Devils -14.6
12. Stephane Veilleux Minnesota Wild -14.4
13. Barret Jackman St Louis Blues -14.2
Brett McLean Florida Panthers -14.2
15. Ron Hainsey Atlanta Thrashers -14.0
Shawn Thornton Boston Bruins -14.0
17. Kris Russell Columbus Blue Jackets -13.6
Maxime Talbot Pittsburgh Penguins -13.6
RJ Umberger Columbus Blue Jackets -13.6
20. Todd Bertuzzi Calgary Fames -13.4
There is not a player among this bunch that anyone would confuse with an all star. Many players on this list are failed shut down players. If a player is consistently played against the best offences their opponents have and not stopping them from scoring this will hurt their +/-. Players in this group include Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Jay Pandolfo, John Madden, Stephane Veilleux, Rob Niedermayer and the leader Rod Brind’Amour. This is a list of players who failed in their NHL roles during the regular season last year.
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Comments
The RW’s would like Max Talbot about now.
Posted by steve on 07/03/09 at 12:48 AM ET
Yeah...I don’t get the whole “off ice” thing but hey...Max Talbot may suck most of the year but he won the cup for pittsburgh; not an opinion, that’s a fact!
Posted by stoneman from vegas on 07/03/09 at 01:51 AM ET
Thee is no “off ice” portion of this method of +/- adjustment.
Maxime Talbot is very lucky that people want to judge him by his last seven games played instead of his career. Aside from the last seven games, it is hard to find anything of note that he ever did. This season was his lowest scoring since his rookie year (while tying his record for most games played). He didn’t have any significant success defensively. He is very lucky people look positively toward him.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/03/09 at 02:29 AM ET
Saying Max Talbot has never done anything of note is idiotic. I have not jumped on the bandwagon of hating everything you post but that’s just stupid. Not everyone needs to score goals to “do something of note”, why don’t you ask Marc-Andre Fluery if Talbot has ever done everything of note, as he is constantly putting him at ease and keeping his confidence high. Or ask the Flyers how three goal leads look after Talbot gets done single handedly changing the landscape of the game. There is a joke in Pittsburgh that he “only scores big goals” as in literally he only scores when the team needs him. He is a player every team needs that holds everything together, lightens the mood, and does exactly what your team needs when you need it. I would say being a key part of where the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins are today is something noteable that he has done.
Posted by John on 07/03/09 at 03:08 AM ET
I thought Ron Hainsey plays for Atlanta Trashers.
Posted by mfx on 07/03/09 at 05:45 AM ET
He is very lucky people look positively toward him.
I’m sure he’s fretting about that.
Posted by IwoCPO from Washington, DC on 07/03/09 at 08:21 AM ET
I was certainly critical of Talbot during the regular season, and I do remember referencing his plus/minus, I just can’t find it right now. Moreover, there was a time during the regular season that Talbot’s plus/minus was among the worst in the entire NHL. So I think it’s not only fair, but accurate, to point that out in light of his Game 7 heroics.
However, he, along with Fedotenko, really seemed to mesh well with Malkin. Playing with a world-class center will sure as hell improve your plus/minus.
Posted by Tony F from Virginia Beach, VA on 07/03/09 at 08:30 AM ET
so I read the top 20 post to see if I could find an explanation of the method of adjustment.
The basic idea is that a team adjustment is subtracted from all players’ +/- ratings in order to give a more team independent value.
hockey is a team game. this is just stupid. every player would have a better +/- playing for a good team vs playing for a bad team. that doesn’t change the player’s ability or talent level. put Wayne Gretzky on a college team and play them against an NHL team, and he would be terrible. any stat that tries to ignore this is useless.
Posted by PaulinMiamiBeach on 07/03/09 at 09:00 AM ET
Paul click on the link in the story for adjusted +/- ratings. You will see that the entire point is to attempt to correct for exactly what you are talking about.
Wayne Gretzky on this college team would presumably have the best +/- on the team and thus come out the best on the team (and very possibly the league) after adjustment.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/03/09 at 09:18 AM ET
This is dumb. Seldom have I come to the defense of the Penguins, but you have a tendency to judge players purely on their errors rather than looking at the whole picture. Talbot has had some mediocre campaigns, but the fact that he elevated his play to such a high level in the Stanley Cup Finals says something about him. Not many players can play like he did under that kind of pressure and that maybe means that he has a rare ability that might be desirable in hockey?
Its the same thing that makes Ozzie a stellar goalie, he plays under pressure better than any goalie in the league. Nothing gets to him. That’s why he is so consistent. But I am not here to start a fight about Chris Osgood.
I am here to say that a player’s plus/minus is not an indication of their overall value to the team. Look at that list...Kris Draper, John Madden, and Rob Brind’amour have all been contenders for the Selke Trophy and are highly skilled shut down forwards. Think of it this way: If every game Kris Draper plays in an 82 game season is against Geno Malkin and he is a point per game scorers, then for Drapes to have a -19 means that he is holding his own against a very skilled forward. Now, of course Draper does not play every game against Geno, but he plays almost every night against Martin Havlat, Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, etc. For Drapes to have an “adjusted” -19 is pretty good I think.
In addition, why is Draper’s performance judged against the rest of the team’s? There are only 5 skaters out at a time, so if Zetterberg and Draper never skate together, why should a goal scored by him or against him be counted against Draper? It makes no sense.
Again, your thinking is two dimensional. You need to open your mind a little bit and start analyzing hockey instead of numbers.
Posted by John from Pittsburgh, PA (Wings fan for life!) on 07/03/09 at 12:09 PM ET
Draper, Madden and Brind’Amour’s best days are gone. In the days they won Selke Trophies they did very well according to this metric. All have appeared in the top 20 in the league before. Today each one has lost a step. As failing shut down players they come out badly here, worse than they would if this was some kind of overall ranking of all the players in the league, but the fact they are failing shut down players who survived last year (as much as they did) on reputation and not on actual production is quite clear either from watching them or looking at their numbers.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/03/09 at 12:15 PM ET
And to think
“SuperStar” Max was the only plus Pen in the finals or was he joined by Fedotenko?
Either way - regular season stats go out the door in the second season.
24 games, one HUGE game winner - this year, minus shminus!
Posted by Taiwan Hockey from Near Da Burgh on 07/03/09 at 12:27 PM ET
a little ridiculous to post the worst without some degree of qualification. as an islander fan, i dont consider brendan witt to be a defensive liability, but being on a team that came in dead last and had no real #1 goaltender the entire season sort of takes the accuracy out of his second place -22 and how it reflects on him as a defenseman.
Posted by kreatiiv on 07/03/09 at 12:56 PM ET
Draper & Maltby have their best years behind them. They both sucked all season long. Here is some more proof.
Enough of the loyalty shit. They suck, its time to cut them loose. I’m sick of fretting every time Maltby steps on the ice. I’m sick of watching Draper take stupid penalties. I am sick of what’s left of the grind line. Its now the “2/3 geriatric line.”
Why can’t Kenny admit the same and finaly say:
Thanks for the memories guys. Have a nice retirement. Keep those Stanley cup rings polished.
Posted by Johnny 2 in Kalamazoo on 07/03/09 at 03:15 PM ET
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most of these are 3 and 4th line grinders and PK guys. I wouldnt say that they are defensive liabilites though. Some of the guys like draper and madden doesnt belong there. I personally believe plus-minus is a useless stat.
Posted by Evil Pen(i)s on 07/03/09 at 12:47 AM ET