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Worst 20 Adjusted Corsi Ratings
by PuckStopsHere on 07/24/09 at 12:49 AM ET
Comments (4)
In this summer’s look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have been looking at the Corsi Number as an alternative to +/- ratings. Today, I am listing the worst 20 adjusted Corsi ratings from 2008/09. The adjustment is done in the same manner developed for +/- ratings in The Hockey Compendium by Jeff Klein and Carl-Eric Reif. I discuss this adjustment method here. In this method, a team adjustment is calculated from team Corsi Numbers. Since five players are on the ice, team Corsi Numbers are divided by five to give a baseline team value that is treated as a “zero” for that team. All individual player Corsi Numbers have the team adjustment subtracted off.
Here are the worst 20 adjusted Corsi Numbers from the 2008/09 season among players who played at least 50 games and with only one team:
Rank | Player | Team | Corsi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Hannan | Col | -278.2 |
| 2 | Brendan Witt | NYI | -253.8 |
| 3 | Nick Schultz | Min | -244.0 |
| 4 | Kurt Sauer | Phx | -238.4 |
| 5 | Zbynek Michalek | Phx | -237.4 |
| 6 | Kris Draper | Det | -220.6 |
| 7 | Rob Niedermayer | Ana | -220.0 |
| 8 | Greg Zanon | Nas | -190.2 |
| 9 | Mike Commodore | CBJ | -189.8 |
| 9 | Jay McKee | StL | -189.8 |
| 11 | Boyd Gordon | Was | -188.8 |
| 12 | John Madden | NJ | -183.2 |
| 13 | Karlis Skrastins | Fla | -179.2 |
| 14 | Steve Staios | Edm | -175.4 |
| 15 | Jay Bouwmeester | Fla | -174.2 |
| 16 | Jay Pandolfo | NJ | -167.2 |
| 17 | Lauri Korpikoski | NYR | -167.0 |
| 18 | Colton Orr | NYR | -161.0 |
| 19 | Jan Hejda | CBJ | -155.8 |
| 20 | Tim Jackman | NYI | -155.0 |
There are generally the same players who appear in the worst 20 unadjusted Corsi Numbers, although a few players who had bad seasons on good teams also appear. These include Kris Draper of Detroit and Boyd Gordon of Washington. Again this list is primarily shut down players who do little to drive offence and play against better than average competition. Defencemen are over-represented, as they are the top five and twelve of the twenty spots. Again Jay Bouwmeester appears, thus making the argument that his low Corsi is not a team effect - though it may be one that depends upon the conditions under which he is played. The most interesting player here is Jay Hejda who has the 19th worst adjusted Corsi. Hejda also has the 16th best adjusted +/- rating. It is quite amazing that a player can have a good +/- and a poor Corsi simultaneously. This is worth a future post.
This list is naturally compared to the worst 20 adjusted +/- ratings using the same adjustment method. Five players appear on both lists. They are Brendan Witt, Kris Draper, Rob Niedermayer, John Madden and Jay Pandolfo. They include four of the eight forwards in the worst Corsi list. This seems to show that a forward with a bad Corsi will also have a bad +/-, but this is not likely as true with a defenceman, who can better affect the quality of shots taken by his opponent. A defenceman can better allow a high number of lower quality shots against than a forward.
It isn’t clear if this list gives a worse list of players than the +/- list. Largely this is because there are many players near the bottom of the NHL talent pool who are largely interchangeable and consensus worst player will have problems staying in the league.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Kris+Draper, Kurt+Sauer, Scott+Hannan,
Comments
Oh but don’t you know that Corsi #‘s are the end-all be-all of statistics? It tells you everything about a player. Right down to their exact effectiveness on a team. *rolls eyes*
Posted by Adam on 07/24/09 at 08:32 AM ET
Corsi is definitely not the be all and end all of statistics. That should be obvious from what I have written.
There are sometimes problems and odd results. There are also some very meaningful results. The important thing is to take a deep enough look to see examples of both. To be able to distinguish between them. To learn what can be learned about hockey from Corsi.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/24/09 at 08:42 AM ET
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So… a bunch of fourth liners and defensemen from teams with less-than-spectacular goaltending. I am shocked, shocked I say. I sure hope no one wants to build a defensive corps around that awful Bouwmeester guy.
There is such a thing as having too many statistics. If you are going to do it, at least separate the guys playing 4 minutes from those plugging 15-20 on the back end.
Posted by JAMESinMI on 07/24/09 at 01:42 AM ET