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Worst 20 Zone Start Adjusted Corsi Numbers
by PuckStopsHere on 09/14/09 at 11:57 AM ET
Comments (10)
In my look at sabermetrics and hockey, I am looking at the problem of combining zone starts and Corsi Number. Although a method has been proposed by objective NHL, I have made my own which I think better solves the problem.
Raw Corsi Numbers are used as a metric to rank puck possession. Because teams are more likely to allow shots if they are in the defensive zone or take shots if they are in the offensive zone, individual player’s Corsi Numbers are adjusted by 0.8 * (defensive zone starts - offensive zone starts), as it has been shown that an extra zone start on average yields 0.8 shots directed at the goal.
I have listed the top 20 zone start adjusted Corsi Numbers and found a Detroit Red Wing dominated list, due to the Red Wings high team Corsi Number last season. Team adjustments will be added to this metric in the future.
Here are the 20 worst zone start adjusted Corsi Numbers from the 2008/09 season:
Rank | Player | Team | Adj Corsi Number | Rank in Worst 20 Corsis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niclas Havelid | NJD | -295 | 7 |
| 2 | Brendan Witt | NYI | -260 | 3 |
| 3 | Scott Hannan | Col | -258.6 | 4 |
| 4 | Evgeni Malkin | Pit | -256 | - |
| 5 | Steve Staios | Edm | -235.2 | 10 |
| 6 | Travis Moen | SJS | -220.6 | 13 |
| 7 | Petr Sykora | Pit | -214.2 | - |
| 8 | Brooks Orpik | Pit | -212.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Jay McKee | StL | -210.4 | 10 |
| 10 | Ed Jovanovski | Phx | -207.4 | - |
| 11 | Jason Strudwick | Edm | -203.8 | - |
| 12 | Tim Jackman | NYI | -202.8 | 9 |
| 13 | Kyle Turris | Phx | -193.8 | - |
| 14 | Kurt Sauer | Phx | -191.6 | 1 |
| 15 | Mike Comrie | Ott | -186.8 | - |
| 16 | Karlis Skrastins | Flo | -186.2 | 6 |
| 17 | Zbynek Michalek | Phx | -185 | 2 |
| 18 | Ladislav Smid | Edm | -182.6 | - |
| 19 | Derek Morris | NYR | -180.4 | - |
| 20 | Ville Peltonen | Fla | -170.8 | 15 |
This list is much more shuffled than the top 20 zone start adjusted list. Nevertheless, they are rather similar. Eight players appear on the worst 20 raw Corsi list that are not on this list. They are Nick Schultz, Jay Bouwmeester, Kim Johnsson, Greg Zanon, Gregory Campbell, Brett Clark, Rob Niedermayer and Radek Dvorak. These players low Corsi Numbers are in part due to the tough way they were used by their team. They were frequently used in defensive settings. In their place are Evgeni Malkin, Petr Sykora, Ed Jovanovski, Jason Strudwick, Kyle Turris, Mike Comrie and Derek Morris. These are players who were used in much more offensive roles by their respective teams and nevertheless had poor Corsi Numbers.
Likely the most interesting player on this list is Evgeni Malkin. Malkin was the top scorer in the NHL last season. He was an MVP nominee. He did not have a good Corsi Number despite being used very predominantly in offensive situations. His offensive numbers were helped by his usage pattern and his defensive flaws were hidden, but these numbers reveal them quite strongly.
On this list, many of the players with the worst Corsi Numbers, such as Kurt Sauer or Zbynek Michalek, are moved from the bottom of the list due to their tough usage patterns. Others like Brendan Witt or Scott Hannan do not show the same rise. Niclas Havelid comes out worst in the league by this measure. He has lost his NHL job this summer, due to his poor performance last year and will be playing in Sweden in the upcoming season.
This list shows a group of players who were not strong in terms of puck possession last year. It does not take team effects into account, so it will be over-represented by players on weaker teams. Players on good teams who had poor seasons may not be found by this method. I will attempt that adjustment in the future. Having the NHL top scorer on the list is a bit of a surprise; however his defensive (Corsi) numbers are weak despite being given a strongly offensive role. I would use this as an argument that Malkin did not deserve his MVP nomination (though clearly anyone who leads the league in scoring is a good player.
Filed in: | The Puck Stops Here | Permalink
Tags: Evgeni+Malkin, Kurt+Sauer, Niclas+Havelid,
Comments
Malkin"s takeaways are a red herring. They don’t change the fact that he starts in the offensive zone more than almost anyone and winds up giving up more shots to his opponents that his team takes.
In most of Malkin’s cases, his takeaways are offensive successes. He steals the puck in the offensive zone and creates a chance that way. When he fails to get a takeaway he is often out of position leading to a chance in the other direction.
I don’t have numbers to back it up, but I am certain the vast majority of Malkin’s takeaways were nowhere near the defensive zone.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 09/14/09 at 01:58 PM ET
And I don’t have proof either, but I can tell you that your certainty is incorrect… Most of them took place in either the neutral or defensive zone…
Posted by Tony from Virginia Beach, VA on 09/14/09 at 02:02 PM ET
Either way, the takeaways are a red herring. Opponents get a lot more shots than Pittsburgh does with Malkin on the ice and Malkin starts in the offensive zone more than almsot anyone in the league. That reflects badly on Malkin whether he gets a takeaway or not.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 09/14/09 at 02:07 PM ET
LEADING THE LEAGUE in takeaways cannot be a red herring for a player that is being portrayed as having defensive flaws, plain and simple….
Posted by Tony from Virginia Beach, VA on 09/14/09 at 02:10 PM ET
It is a red herring in this case. Takeaways do not measure defence well at all when many of them occur nowhere near the defensive zone.
The problem here is we have two measures that tell us different things. At least one of them is telling us the wrong thing (both could be…).
I maintain the high takeaway number says little about defence in Malkin’s case. Loui Eriksson, Jason Spezza and Alexander Semin are also among the top players in takeaways last year and none of them are particularly good defensively. These are players who get a lot of offensive takeaways that lead to offensive chances and are not particularly strong in their own zone. It is true that some very good defensive players get a lot of takeaways too - Mike Richards, Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Niedermayer are examples - but they play very different games from Malkin.
It is also true that Malkin starts in the offensive zone on faceoffs more than just about anyone and nevertheless more shots are taken by opponents when Malkin is on the ice than by Pittsburgh. I maintain this is an important fact that shows his defensive flaws. Thus far you ignore it and point at the takeaways.
Posted by PuckStopsHere on 09/14/09 at 02:20 PM ET
Malkin deserved MVP consideration last year despite what the stats here indicate. You don’t lead the league in points and get taken off the MVP ballot because your team allows more shots with you on the ice than it takes, especially when you manage to carry a respectable plus rating. What Corsi subtracts in “statistical noise” from the plus/minus argument, it also adds in “statistical noise” in that not all shots are created equal. It seems as though one conclusion that could be drawn from Malkin’s bad Corsi number and respectable Plus/Minus rating is that his time on ice is an indicator of bad scoring chances for the other team when they get them. A hurried and ineffective shot on net caused by a takeaway specialist in the vicinity is counted as a negative against a player in this statistical analysis even though a deeper look indicates that it’s a positive mark on the player.
However, Tony. I still consider Malkin a very strong offensive player whose defensive game needs significant work. His league-leading takeaway numbers are tempered severely by his relatively high number of giveaways.
Bottom line is that I don’t believe this statistical analysis is a strong enough argument to make a claim that Malkin did not deserve MVP consideration.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 09/14/09 at 02:21 PM ET
Also, a takeaway anywhere on the ice should be credited as a defensive plus. Taking the puck from a guy in the slot in his own zone is a very effective means of limiting that team’s ability to score a goal.
Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 09/14/09 at 02:22 PM ET
re: Havelid
As a long time Thrashers fan, it appeared to me that Father Time caught up to Havelid last season and that he lost a step—one he couldn’t afford to lose. Playing with Enstrom hid this to some degree, but Enstrom’s number when he played apart from Nic were much stronger.
I’m not sure that Havelid “lost his job” as he choose to go home to Sweden. If he had wanted to return to Atlanta he would be better than anyone the Thrashers have on their 3rd pairing right now. He just isn’t good enough to play Top 4 minutes in the NHL anymore.
Posted by The Falconer on 09/14/09 at 07:03 PM ET
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Once again, you conveniently fail to mention that Malkin led the league in takeaways, which blows your “defensive flaws” theory out of the water….
You can spin your cute little numbers all you want, but saying Malkin didn’t deserve his MVN nomination is, once again, ridiculous….
Posted by Tony from Virginia Beach, VA on 09/14/09 at 01:36 PM ET