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Canes mid-season report card
by David Lee on 01/11/09 at 04:51 PM ET
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While most teams are just now hitting the halfway point of the season, the Hurricanes are a couple of games beyond that point, and it’s time for me to grade the skaters on their performances up to now.
Before the season started, I made some simple predictions about the numbers each player would put up. Those can be found here. Below, I’ll give a quick evaluation of the skaters. I’ll also compare their current numbers and projected season totals to the predictions made by me and also to those made by The Hockey News.
Also, please check out Bubba from Canes Country, as he does his own mid-season Canes report cards.
I don’t like the way TSN.ca does their math in projecting stats for the remainder of the season, so I’m using my own . Their system assumes that injuries and man-games lost are consistent throughout the season. My system isn’t perfect because it assumes that everyone stays healthy for the rest of the season. With that in mind, I won’t bother with the stats outlook for the non-regulars.
- Ray Whitney currently has 35 (13/22) points. He hasn’t missed a game and is on pace for 65 (24/42) points. I predicted he would get 61 (25/36), while THN predicted 68 (27/41).He isn’t playing on the top line like I thought he would, but he’s the team’s leading point-getter, and he works hard every night. He still dazzles everyone with his magical hands and brilliant passes. He’s giving exactly what is expected of him. I’ll give him an A-.
- Eric Staal has 32 (18/14) and is on pace for 60 (34/26). Pre-season, I said he would finish with 93 (42/51) while THN said 79 (35/44). There’s no denying that the big guy has struggled offensively this season. He’s gone through a couple of extended droughts, and he isn’t always the best player on the ice. He’s had some very good games, but mostly a bunch of mediocre ones. He’s doing all the little things, but he’s not consistently doing the big things (read: score goals). I think his second half will be better than his first, but he’ll still fall well short of my expectations. He gets a B, which is actually inflated a bit.
- Tuomo Ruutu has 26 (12/14) points. He’s missed three games with a bum leg. If he stays healthy, he’s on pace for a 50 (23/27) point campaign, which greatly exceeds my 33 (11/22) pick and THN’s 43(15/28).He’s brought way more to the offensive stats than anyone would have guessed, and he brings bucketfuls of toughness and grittiness. He’s proving not only to be an offensive threat, but a sound two-way guy as well. He’s not only a fan favorite, but he’s been rewarded for his hard work with a permanent spot on the top line. His 105 hits is tops on Carolina and 16th among all NHLers. Getting him re-signed this summer should be a top priority. I’m going to give him top marks. A+
- Rod Brind’Amour has “just” 26 (8/18) points. At this clip, he will end up with 49 (15/34), which is way below my 68 (27/41) prediction and THN’s 74 (24/50). He’s struggled at times and has occasionally had the look of a player who is playing through an injury. Due to a socialistic distribution of ice time, he isn’t playing as much as he’s used to. It’s hard to say whether the diminished ice time is helping his old body or hurting his chances to produce. No matter what, his season has been disappointing so far. C-.
- Sergei Samsonov has 23 (9/14) points and has yet to miss a game. He’s on pace for a 43 (17/26) point season, which is a little shy of what I guessed—(25/30) and THN guessed—(22/29). He got off to a terribly slow start, but has played really well lately. I think his numbers will be a bit higher than that projection. He might have a second half explosion similar to the one he had last season. If so, his numbers will be very good. He works hard every shift. I’ll give him a B.
- Joni Pitkänen has 19 (4/15) points and has missed eight games with a knee injury. At his clip, he should end up with 39 (8/31), which is almost exactly what I predicted—(8/27) and what THN picked—(9/25). He is exactly what the Canes thought they were getting, plus a little more. He’s not as much of a defensive liability as advertised, but he is somewhat prone to d-zone turnovers and o-zone meltdowns. On the other hand, he’s a better backchecker than we were expecting and will probably only get better in time. For whatever it’s worth, Erik Cole has 16 (8/8) points for the Oil this season. I give him a B.
- Joe Corvo has played in every game and has 18 (6/12) points, including three game-winning goals. He’s on pace to end up with 34 (11/23) points, which will be well shy of the 65 (15/50) that I predicted and the 54 (14/40) that THN predicted. He doesn’t hit much or block many shots, but he’s leading Carolina defensemen with 23 takeaways. Unfortunately, he also leads blueliners with 18 giveaways. I’ll give him a B- simply because I was expecting a lot more out of him.
- Dennis Seidenberg has missed five games with a leg injury and another one with the flu. He has 15 (2/13) points so far, and should end up with 30 (4/26) if he stays healthy. This is (already) much better than the 11 (2/9) points that I predicted and the 20 (3/17) that THN predicted. He’s been a very nice surprise. I wasn’t even sure that he would be a regular, but he’s been one of the best defensemen on the team. His total of 99 blocked shots is seventh in the entire league and his 74 hits place him in the top 30 league-wide. He deserves an A.
- Matt Cullen missed five games with a hurt leg. He has a very disappointing 13 (9/4) points and is on pace for 26 (18/8). This is barely half of the 46 (21/25) that I guessed and the 49 (15/34) that THN foresaw. I’m not sure what the problem is, but this has been a major disappointment. D+
- Chad LaRose was a healthy scratch for one game and has 12 (9/3) points, which puts him on pace for 23 (17/6) points. I hoped for a 30 (15/15) point season out of him while THN guessed 25 (10/15). He continues to be “charley hustle” out there every night, every shift. He will never be anywhere close to being the most talented player on the ice, but he’s always one of the hardest-working. His 60 hits and 27 blocked shots are very good numbers considering that he is a forward and also that he has some of the lowest TOI among regulars. He makes the most of every second on the ice and deserves an A.
- Ryan Bayda has played in every game and now has 10 (3/7) points. He’s on pace for 19 (6/13). He’s already pretty close to, and is on pace to destroy the 13 (4/9) that I predicted. This is his first season as a regular NHLer, and, like Sharpie, he’s making the most of his limited time with 60 hits and 37 blocked shots. Again, he’s not the best, but he’s performing at or above expectations. A.
- Scott Walker has missed a total of 15 games with two separate injuries. He has just 10 (2/8) points, and should finish with 24 (5/19) if he can stay healthy. Way below the 44 (17/27) that I guessed, but that was assuming a healthy season. Nonetheless, this has been a disappointing season. He can do better than this, and he’s getting a C.
- Anton Babchuk has missed four games with an elbow injury and six others as a scratch. He’s tallied 9 (4/5) points, and is on pace for 20 (9/11) points. THN predicted 16 (3/13) and I predicted 9 (2/7) for the Ukrainian. He’s been a pleasant surprise for me. His much publicized hissy-fit and defection (back) to Russia last season left me wondering if he would even make the team, let alone get any playing time, but he’s been good. Not great, but better than I thought. B-.
- Niclas Wallin has missed 12 game with a “lower body” injury, and he’s put up nine (1/8) points. His lone goal was an overtime game-winner against the Leafs. He’s on pace for 20 (2/18) points, which is better than the 13 (4/9) that I predicted. His 80 hits are third on the team and 21st among NHL defensemen. B+
- Tim Gleason has missed eight games with a leg injury and one more with a “lower body”. He has no goals and eight assists, putting him on pace for a 17-assist season. I figured he’d score a few goals (and probably still will), so I predicted 19 (6/13) for him. 84 hits puts him at 18th among NHL defensemen and second overall on Carolina. He’s a great shut-down defender and takes care of the dirty business when the need arises. B+
- Justin Williams has only played in 18 games after returning from an Achille’s rupture. He was eased into the lineup, and after a slow start, he’s got seven (3/4) points. He’s on pace for 21 (9/12) points, but I think he’ll do better than that. It’s unfair to give him a grade based on just a handful of games, but he’s looked good when he’s been out there. I’ll give him a B. He was projected by me to be injury-free and to have 73 (36/37) points.
- Brandon Sutter has been a remarkable penalty killer and has shown that he’s going to be an incredible two-way player. However, he’s struggled offensively. He’s hit lots of posts and crossbars. He’s been robbed by great goaltending. He only has one goal to go with five assists. He’s missed eight games with a concussion, and is on pace for a 12 (2/10) point season. I think his final tally will be a little higher than that, but not much. He’s been good, but not as good as expected, so I’ll give the rookie a B.
- Patrick Eaves has been a disaster. He has just six (1/5) points this season, and is on pace for 12 (2/10). This is way lower than everyone’s expectations. I guessed that he would have 34 (16/18) points, but he’s just not bringing it. On the plus side, he has 62 hits, which is fifth on the team. Unfortunately, he’s not bringing anything to the table offensively, and I have to give him a D-.
- Frantisek Kaberle. I thought that Kaberle would be traded in the summer or bought out. I didn’t expect to see him as a regular in Carolina, but I predicted 12 (1/11) points for him anyway. He’s missed 24 games with leg injuries and been scratched a few times, so he’s only appeared in 16 games. He managed to pick up six assists while looking like a lost little boy out there. He was waived last month in an attempt to clear salary, but when he cleared, the Canes needed him because of injuries to other defensemen. If he isn’t traded or something else, he should end up with 20 assists, based on his present points/game ratio. I still can’t figure him out. He’s amazingly inconsistent with his quality of play. It doesn’t seem right to give him something this high, but I give him a C.
I’m not evaluating the goaltenders at this point in time. Maybe later.
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About Red & Black Hockey
David Lee is a restaurant manager with an unused degree in political science. He can be found at Carolina Hurricanes games, Scrabble tournaments and indie-rock shows. Sometimes, all in the same day.
David has contributed to CBC.ca for their Stanley Cup playoff coverage in 2006 and to the New York Times Slapshot blog for theirs in 2008. Red and Black Hockey was founded in July of 2005.
