SENShobo
Rickety Road Sens’ Biggest Challenge
by SENShobo on 03/25/09 at 09:10 AM ET
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More than a few days off now, and ponder the pitfalls and possibilities this team has undoubtedly done.
Not quite as hot as the Senators of late, Carolina is 8-1-2 in their last 11GP, and still very much a challenge for the Senators to face tonight, Joe Corvo always the Senators killer up the sleeve. It’s a five game road trip, and more than expectations and impossibility looming over their heads, it may well be the League’s third worst road record (12-18-4) that casts the biggest shadow of them all.
A year and a team too early, Paul Maurice’s words, “Make the playoffs, and compete for the Stanley Cup” will all but surely come true this season. It won’t be easy to get through some of the biggest names in the NHL, but Cam Ward has elevated his play enough to gain mention yet again, and Raleigh will not be a friendly place for Ottawa tonight. Volchenkov is expected to return to the lineup tonight, the starting goalie not yet named.
As bad as it’s been, there’s something to say about a team that’s still happy to be together, from the Ottawa Sun,
Under terms of his old contract, Alfredsson’s 70-70 clause would have kicked in. His 71 points (23 goals, 48 assists) in 70 games would have allowed the 36-year-old to become eligible for unrestricted free agency July 1.
Instead, Alfredsson signed a four-year, $21.6-million US extension last October—a deal that will allow him to play his entire career with Ottawa.
Five months later, he has no regrets.
“Being in Ottawa has been a great fit,” said Alfredsson. “I don’t think myself or the team wanted anything different. We have really turned things around and we hope that we can finish off really strong.
Economic times might not have made it the best opportunity for Alfredsson to make his first foray into free agency, but the unique cap-friendly deal from Ottawa could have still been topped. Kuba‘s three years at $3.7 million wasn’t even what his agent thought was fair to sign with Ottawa for, let alone the free agent market, and he’s happy to stay here. You listen to Neil, confront him with the achievement of 500 games now played, and he’ll remind you that they were all with the Senators, along with hopefully many more. After waiting two weeks for a deal before departing for Long Island two seasons ago, Mike Comrie is back, and once again looking to stick around. Despite Bell’s short tenure with the Sens, he wants to earn his place on his hometown blue line, and even Ryan Shannon, with no family ties to the area or the country, has made it clear that he wants to be here, and should be on the radar because “He’s cheap, cheap labour.” That’s an awful lot of guys on what’s been a very disappointing team all looking to stay, a great sign of hope for the fans that no matter what this season holds, next season will have a much better outcome.
Not to say that the Senators aren’t out, or that they haven’t been here before, from the Ottawa Citizen,
The last time the Ottawa Senators were in this situation, scratching and clawing for a playoff spot in the final weeks of the regular season, Daniel Alfredsson was a kid. More or less.
....
It was the first time in the modern era that the national capital region had been swept up in playoff fever, and the Senators prolonged the anxiousness by waiting until almost the last minute to secure a berth, beating the Buffalo Sabres 1-0 in the final regular-season game on a goal from Steve Duchesne that was almost the last shot of the game.
....
The odds are a little longer this time. The Senators of 1996-97 were close to a playoff position for much of the season, but the race was no less dramatic.
....
“It was unbelievable,” he said. “It was like a playoff atmosphere, and we had to go on a really good stretch.“The thing was, we really weren’t a team that was expected to make the playoffs. We had so many good things going for us that even if we hadn’t made it, it would have still been an unbelievable season for us.
....
“Back then it was different, because we were right in the race all the time, around the eighth spot or not too far away. Now we’re trying to catch up from far behind. It’s a little bit different, but as far as atmosphere in the locker- room and having something positive going, it’s very much the same.”
It’s no easy feat right now, that much being certain, even if the outcome is not.
A few more statistics, if you care to indulge yourself, from the Ottawa Citizen,
Enjoying Ottawa’s recent winning streak, Senator Fan?
Here’s today’s sobering statistic, provided by our friends at sportsclubstats. com: Despite the 9-1-0 run the Senators carry into Carolina tonight, they still only have about a 1.1-per-cent chance to reach the postseason. That’s right, roughly one chance in 100.
No, one in 100 is heavily discounting the possibilities. You wouldn’t turn down a 10% raise, would you? The Senators are actually holding on to eleven chances in 1,000. Yes, those are better odds. Read that article to find out that as rare a feat as it has been, several teams have made the jump in the dying moments.
As promised, below you will find the updated playoff potential. Recall that of those teams, only four can reach their point goal, with or without Ottawa’s help. The point percentage they need should Ottawa go 10-0-0 to run the table aren’t all that high, and they will get lower for every loser point they collect or win that Ottawa can’t close the deal on.
And yes, I realize that a team can’t have a point percentage of 119%, but I don’t have a problem with chuckling at that.
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