Wow, this is a huge deal.
I believe Buffalo will match that offer though, Vanek is such a good sniper.

Thomas Vanek is going to be a very rich young man.

I just hope the weight of the contract doesn’t throttle him.  I hate to see a young player smothered by expectations engendered partially by a huge contract that he didn’t request.

It’s about time.  Teams wanted to have their cake and it eat too.  As those of you who participate at TB’s know, competitive advantage - and protection - came from delaying free agency as long as possible.  Not using means teams have at their disposal to build a competitive roster is negligent, and perhaps even indicative of collusive behavior.

Agreed, snafu--to have a “gentleman’s agreement” not to go after each other’s assets seems anticompetitive.  The sole obligation of a GM is to do what makes his team better, not worry about anyone else’s.  I think the offer sheet to Kesler last year broke the ice.  Edmonton doesn’t really have any other attractive options.

If this goes through and the Sabres decline to match, the rules of the game dramatically change. If you’re GM of the Devils (Zach Parise) or Senators (Ray Emery), you’re holding your breath right now and praying the Sabres match.

Under the old CBA it was the possibility of a team matching any offer than all but killed willingness in pursuing the offer sheet option, but with a salary cap in place, teams can be vulnerable, as the Sabres now are, as well as the Devils and Sens.

It started with the Pronger situation… Then the Ryan Smyth fiasco… Then the Oilers went completely into the tank during the last part of the season… Then the Michal Nylander thing.

It’s been a rough year or so for Kevin Lowe. I think it all finally drove him mad.

Maybe he’s not so mad after all.  Given how Edmonton’s drafted the last several years, giving up those 4 first rounders might not have too much of an impact.

You are forgetting the 4 first round picks that would have to go to Buffalo as compensation.  Money-wise this is actually a good deal based on what some guys were getting on the open market, but MAN 4 firsts is a lot to give up by a team that’s not close to competing.  A deal like this makes much more sense for a team that is poised to win now like Anaheim, Detroit, SJ, Vancouver, NYR, etc.  This is a complete desperation move by Lowe, and I think it’s clear going from the finals to the basement hasn’t helped his job security at all.  It’s one thing to dismantle a contender, it’s another thing to dismantle a contender and have very little to show for it.  The fact that the Oil have tried to be so active in Free Agency tells me there’s not a lot of front line talent ready to contribute at the NHL level in the near future.  Whether the Pronger situation was his fault or not, getting almost nothing in return and having Lupul be a total bust are an embarassment to a proud franchise.

Regier says they’ll match.  Advantage: Vanek.

I wonder if Lowe will try for Parise.  He’s not really elite enough as Vanek to warrant such a high price to consider not matching.

So, let me get this straight.  If Bobby Clarke uses the offer sheet, it’s bad, but if Kevin Lowe does it, it’s OK?

Really though, this is how a cap system is supposed to operate.  Every team wants a shot at the best talent it can get, and everyone is limited to a range of what they can spend on that talent.  Teams really can’t have the luxury under this system of loading up on UFA talent (reducing the supply of what is on the market to nil in effect), while lowballing (relative to the UFA’s) the extremely high value RFA’s.  They’re the best long term bet after all, being the youngest, the most likely to stay in their prime over the course of a long term deal, and perhaps the most competitive attitudes as well.  They get locked in at current market rates, not some perhaps higher value once they do reach UFA status.

Don’t look at me, Tapeleg--I think it’s fine if any GM uses an offer sheet.  It is a tool available to them to improve their clubs.

I wonder if Clarke got more flak just because he was the first to use it under the new CBA.  It will be easier for any successive teams to attempt offer sheets, I think.

Long Live Bob Clarke

The Rangers used it with Joe Sakic back in the day, and there was little outcry.  But when you try and touch a Canuck it starts to get ugly?

Or was it the fact that it was Clarke, and nobody liked him?  Talk about unfair.  Sorry if you don’t like someone, but business one season is underhanded for another?  I don’t get it.

This was a move made for show by Lowe.  If he knew last night that Buffalo would match the offer sheet, he only did this to make it look like he is trying to improve the Oilers for the short term.  Now no one can call the Oilers cheap and Lowe gets to (possibly) keep his job.

Probably the outcry was because people didn’t like Clarke.

I agree, that is silly, but people are irrational.

So when is someone going to go after Lundqvist?  Both Emery and Lundqvist are RFAs, and both Ottawa and New York are close to the cap.  Given the money that the Rangers have committed to Drury, Gomez, etc., you could make them spend a large portion of their cap on three or four players for at least 5 years if you give Lundqvist the right deal.  If they match, you mess up their cap (further); if they don’t, you get one of the top young goalies.  Where’s the loss?  The genie’s out of the bottle, and with the cap, teams can’t afford to always match.  I think this is where the cap will have more significance than in the UFA market, at least in the short term.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the first big offer sheet signed by Sergei Fedorov with the Carolina Hurricanes? It was front-loaded so that when the Wings matched they had to pay Fedorov something silly like $20 million in the first season.

I don’t see any problem with what Kevin Lowe did. It’s the rules of the game. To me, knocking Lowe would be like knocking someone who bunts to try to break up a no-hitter. I’m gonna do anything I can to help my team win. If you don’t like it, perhaps you should try a nicer sport, like knitting or basket-weaving.

The joke will be on Lowe if he offers Parise anything above 5 mill.  Even though Parise is a great young player he can be replaced.  I would take the picks in a second....

So when is someone going to go after Lundqvist?

It is my understanding that you don’t just give someone an offer sheet.  It is a deal negotiated between the player and another team, just as if they were a UFA.  The NHL approves it, and the team that holds the RFA’s rights has the choice to match the contract or walk away. 

Lundqvist has said he will refuse any offer sheet.  That means he’s not going to deal with any other team but the Rangers, so no one can “drive up his price,” so to speak.  He can always change his mind, of course, but considering how much he loves playing in NY, I doubt he will.

Lundqvist has said he’ll refuse any offer sheet, but it would be tough to turn down over $40 million for a long term deal.  Both Drury and Briere said they didn’t want to leave Buffalo either, and they both obviously did.  It doesn’t cost anyone to try, and you can potentially land a great young goaltender.  Besides, just putting forth an offer would help set the market for Lundqvist in his negotations with the Rangers.

Lundqvist would gladly listen to offers, at least you would think he would.

I hope he makes a ludicrous offer for Ryder.

Why WOULDN’T Lundqvist listen to offers?  If for no other reason than to improve his future bargaining position with the Rangers by knowing what he’d be worth to other teams.  It will be interesting to see how his situation plays out because even if he wants to stay in NY, it’s in his own best interests to listen to offers and possibly even to sign one and force the Rangers to pay him something close to market value.  Someone earlier mentioned collusion, but in most cases I think that’s probably not true because teams do have to give up picks when they sign RFA’s.  HOWEVER, with the number of teams that historically have bad goaltending you’d think a young top 5-10 goaltender entering his prime would draw several significant offers.

Why would Lundqvist listen to offers?

Thats easy.... MONEY talks!

If nothing else, how else could he get an accurate gauge of what his value is without gathering more than one opinion?

It never hurts to listen.

My point was not that Lundqvist wouldn’t listen to offers, but that he wouldn’t sign any.  Of course he’ll listen, so he can get an idea of how much he could reasonably ask for. 
I can’t comment on the Drury and Briere situation, since I didn’t pay much attention to them with Buffalo until they played the Rangers in the playoffs.  But I have been paying attention to Lundqvist, and he LOVES playing in NY.  Honestly, what young, single guy wouldn’t?  The fans here adore him and chant his name, and that’s gotta be a big ego boost.  He said he wouldn’t sign any offer sheets, and wouldn’t take the team to arbitration.  I honestly don’t see him going anywhere for a long time.  I’d bet the Rangers would do whatever it takes to keep him, even if it means they can’t afford to sign Shanahan.

K24 he may LOVE playing in NY, but the bottom line is that this league is a business and he can’t negotiate with the Rangers if the Rangers hold all the cards.  Will he still love playing for them if they lowball him?  The Rangers can’t afford to pay him the $5-$7 million per season he could make on the open market, regardless of how much they love having him.  It sounds like he is willing to make concessions to stay in NY, but the Rangers made a helluva splash in free agency before trying to lock him up long term.

K24, what if what he could reasonably ask for - based on fielding offers he may not feel he was inclined to sign initially - is more than what the Rangers could spend?  I understand that players want to sign where they’re wanted, but there are lots of cities where Lundqvist could be a star; New York doesn’t have the market cornered on passionate fans.  And the guy has an agent, whose sole purpose is to get Lundqvist as much as he possibly can.  If a team approached Lundqvist with an offer that was $10-20 million dollars more than the Rangers were offering, and offered to make him the centerpiece of the team, how much is it worth to Lundqvist to have Ranger fans chanting his name versus the fans of team “X”.  Maybe he really likes New York, but these guys are only human, and the money is a strong incentive.  Not that he couldn’t or wouldn’t re-sign with the Rangers, and maybe even at a hometown discount; but if I were another GM, that doesn’t mean I’m not on the phone to Lundqvist’s agent trying to make a deal.  Hell, I’d do it just to make the Rangers pay a million or a million or a half more than would have otherwise, to reduce the amount of cap space they have to go out and sign my RFAs or UFAs next season.

Exactly Dan.  This isn’t just about Lundqvist, the Rangers, and their mutual love affair.  It’s also about the various ways NHL GM’s (at least the competent ones) can manipulate the market to adversely effect their opponents’ cap space.  It’s a game of chicken between the Rangers and the opposition.  Signing Lundqvist to an offer sheet would screw the Rangers, but that team should also be prepared for the Rangers not to match the offer.  Think about a team that has significant cap space because they have lost some of their best players.  Would Lou make an offer to Lundqvist?  At worst he has an expensive heir apparent to Marty, at best he screws the Rangers for years to come.  Also remember, Lundqvist’s agent makes his money off of a commission so it’s in the agent’s best interest to get the most money for his client regardless of where the client may actually want to play (hello Scott Boras!).  With teams like Detroit, Phoenix, LA, Edmonton, and others in the market for a goaltender of the future it would be shocking if Lundqvist’s agent doesn’t have some serious conversations with some of those teams.  If no one has even attempted to contact Lundqvist’s agent it could be a sign of collusion more than a sign of how much Lundqvist loves NY.  And for a point of reference, the fans chant the goalie’s name in every arena in the NHL.

Aaron, the Wings aren’t in the market for a “goalie of the future.” They already have theirs in Jimmy Howard. But you’re right about everything else, especially the part about fans chanting their goalie’s name whoever he is. Heck, fans even chanted for Manny here two years ago.

Good call OlderThanChelios, I forgot about Howard.  That was just a list off the top of my head with absolutely no research involved.  I guess my larger point is that the Rangers seem to be taking a big chance with their future by not addressing Lundqvist ASAMFP, unless they KNOW he won’t be receiving any other offers.  But knowing something like that would be somewhat illegal, so… It would be “sad” if the Rangers set themselves up for the longterm with Gomez and Drury only to immediately lose their most important player.

Jimmy Howard is the goalie of the future?  I know thats the ideal plan, but the Red Wings are not in a position to be able to make ANYONE coming from the minors into the “goalie of the future”.  The Wings are a consistent Cup contender.  There is no chance that the organization puts together what it believes is a Cup-winning front 18, and then turns to some kid who hasn’t proved ANYTHING and says “Hey dude, why don’t you hop in goal?” They need a franchise goalie, the type that can be counted on to be the man for the next 10 years.  Maybe Howard could potentially be that guy, but the Wings have had other guys in that mold too, and what happens is that the Wings can never set an entire season of Cup contention on that guy’s shoulders, because its too precarious of a situation to let it blow up in your face just because you wouldn’t go do what needed done to get a proven goalie.  If that’s truly the case, then what better year than this year, when the Wings are so hamstrung by the cap, to let Howard step up and prove himself? 

They need a franchise goalie, period.  I highly doubt the Ducks would give them Bryzgalov, and I wish they would’ve got Toskala, though again, I doubt the Sharks would give him to the Wings.  They didn’t land Luongo last year.  Sadly, they lack the cap space to do it this year, so they won’t be able to bid on Lundquist, but if they could, it would be a tremendous move, even if it cost them four 1st rounders.  Finding a goalie of that ability is like playing the lottery when you’re always dealing with first round picks in the last third of the first round.

Well, I don’t know how or if this affects anything, but the Rangers have elected to take Lundqvist to arbitration.

And as for the chanting, I guess we just haven’t seen it here in NY all that much, at least recently (there was Eddie and JD, of course, but that’s ages ago).  I don’t remember chanting Richter’s name all that much, surprisingly, and the goalies after him certainly didn’t deserve it.

Ok, did some checking and apparently this means no offer sheets for Lundqvist...this year.

Arbitration awards are only for one year, though, right?

Maybe an offer sheet next year, if they can’t come to terms on a multi-year contract.

And how stuck is poor Al Montoya behind Lundquist?  I wonder how he is doing--he was very good in college.

Reports I’ve heard indicate that Montoya is doing well in the AHL, but he’s inconsistent.  He’s also been hurt a couple of times, however, and had shoulder surgery last off-season.  I do kind of feel bad for him though.  Taken in the top 10 of the draft, he had to think he was the next Rangers goalie, then along comes some Swedish guy taken in the 7th round.  And his salary pretty much prevents him from being the Rangers backup goalie next year.

K24, it does appear that the Rangers have elected to take Lundqvist to arbitration (which they can only do once).  How much should Lundqvist expect the arbitrator to award him?  There are 4 players whose statistics rank them within three places (+/-) of Lundqvist’s performance in 2 of the following three categories (Wins, GAA, S%) in 2006/2007.  Those players are Giguere, Turco, Kiprusoff, and Nabokov.  Averaging their 4 salaries (including Giguere’s new deal) results in an average salary of $5.125 million.  If he gets a salary in that range, for a single season or possibly two, how does that affect the Rangers after their free agent spending?  Or, how does that affect their ability to field a team going forward?  And what’s his payday once he himself hits UFA?

I’m not a psychic, Dan
I think the Rangers were always expecting to pay Lundqvist around $5 mil/yr.  That’s the number I’ve heard quoted most often by the media.  It might (and this is just my own speculation) affect whether they decide to sign Shanahan.  Hossa and Avery are the other two RFAs, and both elected to go to arbitration as well.  They probably put Shanahan’s signing on hold, and if he really wants to stay a Ranger, he might have to wait to see what happens.
I don’t really see how giving Lundqvist $5 mil would affect their ability to “field a team.” They have a lot of young (cheap) players that play significant roles.  Plus, next year the contracts of some of the older, more expensive players are up, and I don’t think some of them are coming back.  So that will free up more spending money next year.

No, it’s true that no one can really predict what will happen going forward, especially with the cap.  Will it continue rising as it has, will it go down, will it remain the same?  Getting rid of some older players and clearing room could help (for instance, Straka’s an UFA in after this coming season, so theoretically his $3.3 million could be used for other players), but the Rangers’ cap hit for 08/09 is ~$22 million for four players (Gomez, Drury, Jagr, and Cullen).  Their UFAs after 07/08 are Straka, Mara, Malik, Roszival, Strudwick, and Tyutin is a RFA.  That doesn’t take into account dealing with Lundqvist, who can expect probably at least $5 million a year.  Assuming the cap goes up $2 million to ~$52 million, then the Rangers have 5 guys (Lundqvist, Jagr, Drury, Gomez, and Cullen) taking up more than half of their cap space with over half of their defense to sign (or replace), along with a good number of forwards and a backup goaltender.  So they may have a highly payed core surrounded by really low paid role players who they can’t afford to resign once they hit RFA or UFA.  Also, their profligate spending has driven up the market for everybody else, which is already having ripple effects through RFA (think Vanek would have gotten a $50 million dollar deal if Gomez or Briere didn’t), and arbitration (what does the Hartnell deal mean for players with similar numbers?).  So they may not only be hurting their own chances, but they’re making it more expensive for everyone else.  It just doesn’t seem prudent.

Ok, now I have to take issue with blaming the Rangers for driving up the players’ prices.  Tampa Bay overpaid for Brad Richards (was that last year or the year before?).  Timonen got how much from Philadelphia?  Briere and Thornton signed their deals before Drury and Gomez, but no one’s blaming the Flyers or Sharks for handing out lots of money (though I think Thornton is worth it, unlike the rest of them).  Yes, I agree that the Rangers have handicapped themselves, and I’m not exactly confident in Sather’s ability to get them out of their tricky situation.  He did give Gomez that ludicrous contract, after all. 
However, all this is speculation, dependent on the entire roster returning next year.  This past year Sather has shown he’s willing to send overpaid, underperforming veterans to the AHL (Kasparaitis, Ozolinsh), and he could always work out a trade.  Whatever happens, it will be interesting to watch Sather squirm (obviously, I’m not a fan).

Believe me, Philly gets no sympathy from me.  Their deals for Timonen, Hartnell, and Briere have a lot to do with the escalating salaries.  It’s obvious Gomez’s deal was directly influenced by Briere’s.  I know Holmgren felt he had to do something big to get the fans back after last season, and I like some of the trades he pulled off during the season, but his activities since the end of the regular season have perhaps been some of the largest reasons (in my opinion) why we’re seeing some of these outrageous salaries.  I like Thomas Vanek, but paying that kind of money to a 23 year old, even if he did score 40 goals, seems a huge risk.  But the lesson seems to be, if you don’t lock them up as early as possible, and pay them a premium for foregoing their shot at free agency, once they do hit free agency they’re going to go out of the price range of 75% of the teams in the league, due to revenue or salary cap issues.  And I’m afraid to see what some of these deals are going to mean for the players going to arbitration in the next month.  What the hell is Derek Roy going to get - $2 or $3 million? Yikes.

I don’t blame the Oil for making this move for Vanek, though I think 50 million is more than he’s worth.  I was really anticipating a division or conference rival in need of scoring to go ahead and make a bid, whether legit or not (NJ, maybe?), just to raise Vanek’s price and further hamstring the Sabres.  NJ would’ve been perfect for this, having the cap room, needing offensive talent to replace Gomez and to complement Elias & crew.  They could’ve made the offer something more reasonable and cap friendly, like say a 5 year/20M, and if they got him, they got a promising forward for what should be a fair price.  If not, they just force the Sabres into using 3-4M more a year on that player, instead of signing the other complementary parts that help build a cup champion.  I really hope this catches on as a method of oneupsmanship and competition amongst rivals.  It might actually help generate some rivalries and interest! 

I can’t see the league’s cap continuing to rise at this pace, or anything remotely close to it.  The NHL is not doing enough to improve the product and improve its availability and revenues.  The salary cap is going to plateau here, and put small markets into a bad way, and big markets into a bind when they make deals anticipating future cap raises that don’t happen.  Should the cap ever go down, some of these big spenders will be in huge trouble.